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55% of people anticipate looking for a new job. Are you one of them?
We cherish the smart hustlers who see the opportunities in the gaps. I chatted with Ali Abdaal who’s a doctor, YouTuber, podcaster, and total hustler, having built his 7-digit personal brand while he was a med student at Cambridge and later when he was working as a doctor in the UK.
Ali runs a weekly newsletter to 120k NBD - Sunday Snippets - where he shares advice on how to make your first (part-time) million and live a happy life while doing so. Inside you’ll find 🔎:
- how to build a million $ biz
- finding a Youtube niche
- and a bunch of advice I'm taking to heart
Worth a sub... (not a paid ad just like the human)
New! Here's the audio version of this week's blog...
The Great Resignation.mp3
You can smell the rain before you see it.
The wind carries its scent through the air, the heaviness in the breeze caresses your skin. You can feel it in your bones, the tension of the thunderclouds bringing electricity that ripples.
Rain. You can feel it before you see it.
Well, there is another thunderstorm coming our way, except this one will spread across a nation.
It's called the Great Resignation.
Where 55% of all Americans start looking for a new gig, and the companies who employ them start figuring out what the hell to do about it.
Imagine this for a moment... you have a team, 10 people let's say, by the end of the year 5 or 6 will be gone.
Yup, one out of every two employees is looking for a new job in the coming 12 months. Now, will they all do the actual move, probably not? But will more than ever before, I think so.
We have gotten to spend some real-time with ourselves over the past year and a half. Time in the mirror staring into faces a bit older and with more wrinkles than anticipated. Time wondering if this job we have now as a marketing rep or a bank teller is the title we really want on our tombstone? Time to wonder if we want to go back into the office with all those people we "have" to work alongside?
We've had brushes with death, we've counted the lives lost to a disease daily, and I think we've decided that our lives are our own. That our lives are fleeting and ephemeral and we better seize them.
But this great resignation will have ripples wide and deep beyond ourselves, let's take a walk down the road of how to batten the hatches and seize the wind.
Today in < 10 minutes → We’re Going to Dive into:
- The Great Resignation → What is it, why is it happening
- What this means for markets & companies → Today & Tomorrow
- The Great Re-Negotiation → My new trademark for what to do
- How to Play it → For Employees, Contractors or Biz Owners
- Investing → Stocks to Play When Hiring is Hard
The Great Resignation
Employees. They are in migration. Like the wildebeests across the plains of Africa, I don't know where they're going but I do know... they are not staying static.
Look at these statistics:
- In April, more than 4 million employees quit their jobs, another 4 million did in June.
- 56% of Gen Z workers said they were unhappy with the work-life balance at their job.
- More than 9 million open positions exist.
- 66% of Gen Z & 73% of millennials say they will switch jobs to get more control.
- More than 60% of both groups want to find new jobs for a chance to work remotely.
- Search for remote jobs is up 460%
Since I invest in companies across boring business land I can tell you the small companies are feeling it with signs across the country like this:
OR this.... paid to interview? That's a new one.
OR how about this... not able to stay open due to staff shortages
OR hey, you birthed 'em, how about they pay ya back?
Markets & Companies: What Will Happen
Three big trends...
Big get bigger
- Walmart, Amazon, Facebook, all the giants will continue to grow. Their recruitment engines will spin, their seats will fill and the little guys? The little guys will get trampled
Pass costs down
- And yet, you consumer, you will not escape entirely either. Because guess what? A higher minimum wage, an increase in bonuses, a more competitive market, they all mean you will pay more for the same.
- The boogieman of finance shows and talking heads everywhere. He will come, and he will ride on the back of a tight labor market.
Alright, well that was depressing. Is there a WTF can we do about it section??
The Great Re-Negotiation
How To Play it Employees & Contractors
MAKE MORE MONEY RIGHT NOW.
If I could tell you one thing to do today, one thing only, renegotiate your earnings. I remember when I worked in finance and was building out a big division for our firm. I was working 60 hour+ weeks, just grinding, but I wasn't hitting the goal I wanted.
So I reached out to my boss at the time, a very intimidating man who took all meetings while still typing, rarely smiled, and had a penchant for socks with people's faces on them. IDK. Anywho - he scared me. So I had never in 2 years renegotiated my salary (stupid). I got a crazy idea to change that.
I asked for a meeting. Persisted when it got rescheduled a few times and flew to see him in person (I worked remote). Finally in his office, sweating into my "I mean business button-down," I put a napkin on the desk.
Then I said, "Andy, I have grown this business by X%, brought in X in revenue, hired X people, grown X division and I think I've done a good job at it thus far, haven't I?"
He responded with a wary, "Yes."
I smiled my most glittery smile, "Great. Well, I'm not anywhere near done, here's where I see the business in 1, 3, 5 years." *Proceeded to wow him with my vision and stats. "*So, I wanted to ask you something, I have a number on this napkin I want to hit in pay this year. I figured everything big and cool created probably got written on a bar napkin at one point or another," as I slide the napkin over to him. "If I hit these goals this year, is there any reason I wouldn't be able to make X amount? And if so that's ok, just tell me what I need to hit to get that number. It's a big personal goal of mine to make that much, and it's a bigger personal goal to return 3x that to the company."
He smiled said, "You're hysterical with this napkin, and ya I think we can commit to that."
"Perfect, I'll fill your office with napkins with faces on them when we hit it together," he chuckled and went back to his day.
Now you don't need to use a napkin but you do need to ask for what you are worth. More ideas to do that here. You don't deserve a pay increase JUST BECAUSE. Sorry, you don't. But you DO deserve one if you can show you are creating more value for your company. Same for if you're a contractor.
99.999999% of people will NEVER approach their boss like this, they'll ask for a raise without conviction. They'll be too scared to use the napkin. They won't do the homework to know how they ROI to the firm. Don't be most people. Here's the difference in pay between those who negotiate and those who don't over time.
Ya, that's $2,000,000 dollars.
How to Play It?
The cost for losing 55% of your people is not small. It can cost six to nine months' salary to replace EACH employee who leaves.
- So if a person makes $40,000 annually:
- It'll cost between $20,000 & $30,000 in recruitment & training costs for a new employee
Now multiply that by half of your team.
I don't know about you, but most of my businesses are not ready for this. Nor are they ready for employees to come and renegotiate their pay.
What to do?
Well, in my businesses we're moving to incentive alignment.
That means you make x amount BUT if you drive revenue, cut costs, or outperform over your goals... you bring in more cash. How can you create incentives that make people want to outperform for you? Win-wins.
For instance, if we launch a product and it does well I give my contractors and employees a % of it that is aligned with their help on the launch.
- i.e. if they bring in clients they get a %
- if a video outperforms like crazy they get a bonus
- if they complete a customer interaction on time and on schedule they get something
It does mean I pay my people more, but it also means they drive more revenue and feel like co-owners in the businesses, not employees. What a different world it would be if we all felt like owners, if we all were compensated based on success. THIS is your opportunity to be one of the few who do that.
Investing: What Comes Next?
Skate Where the Puck Is
Three industries I've invested in, that can benefit from the hostile winds of employment change. Because. I suppose if you can't beat them, invest in them?
If restaurants close down, and long hours on your feet doesn't sound like fun: last-mile companies come in like:
- DoorDash (NYSE:DASH) saw its revenue 3x in its latest quarter.
- Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) Uber Eats has been growing faster than its ride-hailing business even before the pandemic.
The side hustle game stays strong:
- Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) actually came down quite a bit in price over the last weeks, I don't like market timing but if you think the side hustle trend will continue it's an interesting play long term.
- Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is killing it in the new normal, they account for 9% of US e-commerce sales. Them and Stripe (non-publicly traded) are interesting plays in this word.
Outsourcing is here to stay (so are platforms that connect companies to them):
- Upwork (NASDAQ:UPWK) - Upwork has seen it's revenue steadily climb during the pandemic.
- Fiverr International (NYSE:FVRR) - as has fiver w/ revenue up 100%. We continue to go back to these two platforms in my business. We are not alone it seems.
I imagine more companies like Deel and Bench that automate things like accounting and payroll will be created as innovation solves the labor-seeking need. Wish I had invested in either one of those.
TLDR The Future:
It's here already.
Flexible positions, less interest in the US in non-dynamic jobs, without upside that are in person. As long as the music doesn't stop, neither will this trend.
Question everything & adjust your pay accordingly,
Only 60 Days Left!
PS. If you haven't heard, we're throwing a shindig in Austin, November 3-5th, Contrarian Uncon. You'll hear from some of the most successful and world shaking entrepreneurs out there.
Like who you ask? Check out the lineup below!
Disclaimer – This is the “Be an adult” section. Everything mentioned above isn’t advice, just a recount of what I did. That said: This article is presented for informational purposes only. The opinions stated here are not intended to recommend any investment or provide tax advice. Neither are they an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any current or future investment vehicle managed or sponsored by Codie Ventures, LLC or its affiliates. All material presented in this newsletter is not to be regarded as investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. Day trading and investing do involve risk, so caution must always be utilized. We cannot guarantee profits or freedom from loss. You assume the entire cost and risk. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. We recommend consulting with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. If you choose to invest with or without seeking advice from such an advisor or entity, then any consequences resulting from your investments are your sole responsibility. By reading/sharing this newsletter or consuming our content on our other channels, you are indicating your consent and agreement to our disclaimer.