5 Tweet Tuesday - my new crypto framework
I saw a great framework on twitter, but the poor guy only had 8 likes โ That means nobody was seeing his gold. So I'm going to talk about it here so that he gets the shine he deserves.. โ
โ โ It goes as follows: โ When you hear about some new way of doing things, our first reaction is: CHANGE --> UNFAMILIAR -->EW --> NO --> THAT WONT WORK โ โ Instead of asking - will this ever happen? โ Imagine the reverse. if it happened, would we ever go back? โ For example: โ
โ Can you imagine going back to taxis?
โ You'd never go back. It fails the reverse test. In fact, if i get to an airport I'll walk 0.5 a mile into some random parkting garage to find an uber rather than take a curbside taxi. โ Same goes for food delivery, or travel booking. โ who the hell wants to go back to calling a travel agent and talking to them on the phone to hopefully find the lowest price flights? โ For example - today, crypto gets a lot of shit for being useless random speculation (and sure, a lot of it is) โ โ Let's use the Reverse Test to feel it out. โ Sending Money in El Salvador Today:
โ โAs one guy said: "i can't believe i still have to go to a western union office. hand them cash. Then hand them a $25 bill for sending the cash.. it takes 3 days, and then on the other side my family member might get robbed walking out of the western union local office" โ The current president just named Bitcoin legal tender. Created a wallet called the Chivo wallet. Where bitcoin transfers are free. And he gave $30 of free bitcoin to anyone who downloads the app (that's not a tiny amount, because the avg monthly wage is $300) โ So the future is:
โ Can you imagine going back? โ โ โ no way jose โ This is why my investment holdco is called Inevitable Outcomes. I want to invest in things that I think are inevitable. I may get the timing wrong, or pick the wrong founders.. but the outcome is irreversible. โ This framework helps you live in the future, before the future arrives. โ ^This is a critical skill for any investor, entrepreneur, or just a person who embraces change. โ OK holdup - what's the catch? does everything that passes the reverse test work? โ in the words of my brother in law aaron - helllll no โ Here's 2 traps to look out for: โ First - don't mistake a clear view for a short distance. Just because something will happen eventually, doesn't mean it's going to happen anytime soon. โ Second - don't ignore the chicken & egg problem. Yes, uber is a great user experience when there are tons of drivers available to pick you up. But how do you get the drivers on the road in the first place? They will only drive if they make money from riders. And riders will only pay if there are drivers. Chicken & Egg. โ Most of the great "reverse test" ideas fail in reality because they can't solve the chicken and egg problem. โ Crypto's Chicken & Egg solution โ So Uber had a great vision. Push a button, Get a ride. Wham bam thank you maam. โ But how did it overcome the chicken & egg problem? โ โ Uber would focus on a specific city (eg. san francisco) and then pour tons of money they raised from VCs into bypassing the chicken and egg problem. โ Drivers would get paid more driving uber than driving a taxi. And riders would get cheaper rides than if they took a taxi. So they used money as the incentive to hook users into the system. Once they got enough momentum (enough riders & drivers in a city) it would naturally grow on its own. โ So how is crypto going to solve this problem? It doesn't have a CEO. It doesn't have a marketing budget. It doesn't have any employees. โ
โ โ Sometimes to get to the irreversible (or as I say, Inevitable Outcome) you have to figure out the chicken and egg problem. โ โ -shaan ps. that was fun. I should write more โ โ โ โ โ โ |
Older messages
💎 5 Tweet Tuesday 💎 - Shaan's favorite tweets this week
Tuesday, September 28, 2021
Whenever I feel guilty about buying another book...
💎 5 Tweet Tuesday 💎 - Shaan's favorite tweets this week
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Harvard Business Review is a unicorn in disguise...
💎 5 Tweet Tuesday 💎 - Shaan's favorite tweets this week
Tuesday, September 14, 2021
I just launched this today....
"Let's Roll"
Saturday, September 11, 2021
I read this transcript today - and I can't get it out of my head. Today is september 11th, and it's been 20 years since the terrorist attacks on America. Below is a transcript of the call
💎 5 Tweet Tuesday 💎 - Shaan's favorite tweets this week
Tuesday, September 7, 2021
Tetris taught me that if you fit in, you disappear @tobi
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