Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The new economic era

Goldman Sachs sees the Federal Reserve raising interest rates seven times this year to contain hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation rather than the five upticks the bank said it had previously foreseen. Contagion from a widening bond-market selloff is hitting assets from stocks to credit, as investors brace for the shock of higher rates. Here’s how the markets are entering the era of quantitative tightening in five charts. And here’s your markets wrap. —David E. Rovella

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

The top U.S. military official spoke with his Belarusian counterpart to avoid a “miscalculation” around ongoing Russia-Belarus military exercises near the borders of NATO countries. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, as Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border continues, there’s a “real risk” of conflict, including potential scenarios like hybrid warfare or attempts to bring down Ukraine’s government. Moscow has denied it plans to invade Ukraine with the 130,000 soldiers the U.S. says are massed on its borders. The White House says it could happen in days. Here’s the latest on the crisis, including a planned Saturday call between U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Friday Russia could take offensive military action or attempt to spark a conflict inside Ukraine as early as next week, a course of action Moscow has denied. Photographer: Shawn Thew/EPA

Biden on Friday issued an executive order to transfer the $7 billion in Afghan central bank assets frozen in the U.S. so they can be used to compensate victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and support aid efforts in Afghanistan. The order directs U.S. financial institutions to move Afghan central bank funds into a consolidated account held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with the U.S. seeking to tap $3.5 billion for assistance to the Afghan people.

As cases of Covid-19’s omicron variant drop in parts of the U.S. (while Asia continues to suffer the worst of the wave), financial giants including Citigroup and JPMorgan have begun bringing more staff back to skyscrapers across New York City. Even after numerous false starts over the past two years, as wave after wave of infections killed more than 900,000 Americans, firms are hoping enough progress has been made that a return to full-scale remote work is unlikely. But with billions of people across the global still unvaccinated, the risk of new variants and more waves remains very real. 

Canadian authorities are running out of patience with anti-vaccine truckers and their supporters (which have included far-right extremists) blocking roadways. In New York about 4,000 unvaccinated city employees, including teachers, police and fire personnel, faced termination Friday. In Arizona, a federal judge appointed by Donald Trump blocked Biden’s mandate that federal contractors be vaccinated. And a new report shows a fourth Covid-19 shot may be needed for some people as booster efficacy wanes. On average, more than 2,300 Americans are dying from Covid-19 each day, with an infection rate of at least 215,000 each day, matching the peak of last year’s deadly winter surge. Here’s the latest on the pandemic.

Canadian police officers patrol downtown Ottawa on Feb. 10. Authorities have threatened to start arresting truckers and other demonstrators who have shut down central Ottawa and international bridges to protest Covid-19 precautions. Photographer: David Kawai/Bloomberg

The Bank of England has begun talks with the U.K. Debt Management Office and the Treasury over how to handle active sales of bonds held in its quantitative easing portfolio. The discussions come as the central bank last week said it would begin running down its 875 billion pounds ($1.2 trillion) of government bond holdings.

Facebook stopped being cool a very long time ago. Just ask any member of Generation Z. But Wall Street nevertheless held parent company Meta in the high esteem with price targets that just kept climbing. On Feb. 2, the bill for this lack of vision finally came due. So how did it happen?

Dude, where’s my Bronco? Ford took online reservations for its hottest vehicle in decades, but shipments have been anything but first-come, first-served. Now, Twitter-fueled outrage over how the trucks are being doled out risks tarnishing the company’s hot streak. 

Zach Westrum saw the coveted Bronco as a way for his mid-size Iowa dealership to become a larger player in the Ford ecosystem. Photographer: Rachel Mummey/Bloomberg

• More kids who get sick from Covid-19 are also facing hunger, too.
• When will China be the world’s biggest economy? Maybe never.
• Bolt’s 27-year-old billionaire cofounder is chasing Silicon Valley’s elite.
• CIA secretly collected “bulk” data on American citizens, senators claim.
• Germany’s Covid-19 boomtown stumbles over its newfound riches.
• U.S. homebuyers in red-hot market are swarming handyman’s specials. 
• Ubisoft employees push back hard on blockchain initiative.

Since the pandemic began, one-third of U.S. childcare centers have closed. Last year, Congress allocated $39 billion to help tide over providers, sending money to states to distribute. And that’s where the problem began. A year later, many states have yet to even open their application process, let alone get cash to those in need. And now that money is more important than ever: With a structural fix for the ailing industry on hold following the demise of Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan, those funds are all that stands between some childcare providers and shutting down.

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