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The NBA championship is wide open and that's glorious

No offense to the Suns, who could absolutely boat race the playoffs. But if they don't ...

Mar 16

Good morning. Let’s basketball.

Still Life before an Open Window, Place Ravignan; Juan Gris; 1915

I say this with all due respect to the Phoenix Suns, who have clearly and undisputedly been the best team in the NBA all season long, and stand as the championship favorite in my eyes and I presume the eyes of many others:

The NBA championship is wide open, and that’s glorious.

The Suns can and maybe will win the title. They were actually remarkably close last season. You cannot acknowledge what an incredible, all-time Finals performance Giannis Antetokounmpo had without also acknowledging that such performance was necessary to stop the Suns. It was one of the closer 6-game series in recent years, breaking on a few critical plays where the Bucks came up big.

Saying the championship is wide open is not a slight on the Suns. It does not imply the Suns are paper tigers (they are not), or an updated version of false god No. 1 seeds of the past, like the 2007 Mavericks or 2015 Hawks. I’m not saying that at all! But Chris Paul is out with a hand injury and outside of CP3, Jae Crowder and JaVale McGee, the roster is fairly young. Stuff happens in the NBA playoffs. The Western Conference has some tremendous individual players and some very strong teams behind the Suns. Stuff happens!

Ask yourself this: if the Suns don’t win the title, who does?

You say the reigning champion Bucks, and I’m nodding. Yes, the Bucks can absolutely win the title again. Giannis is the best basketball player on the planet. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are perfect fit co-stars. Brook Lopez is back. Yes, the Bucks can absolutely win the title again. You say the presumptive East No. 1 Miami Heat can win the title, and I’m nodding. They made the Bubble Finals, and stomped the Bucks en route, they have handled the Sixers and Celtics in playoff scenarios in recent years, they have the best record in the East despite missing their two best players for 30% of the team’s games, they have maybe the best depth in the conference. Yes, the Heat can win.

The Sixers have Joel Embiid and James Harden: despite what we saw against Brooklyn last week, they can win the title. Joel Embiid and James Harden, people. Swallow your yelps about Harden’s playoff failures of the past. Assuming his hamstring is okay, he’s going to be fresher than ever heading into the postseason. Maybe Harden is not built for playoff basketball; we’ll find out if that’s the case and reassess going forward. I’m not convinced just yet, though.

The Nets can win the title. Disbelieve in Ben Simmons all you want. Kyrie Irving is fresh and rested and might be able to play home games by the time the playoffs roll around, if he just sticks his arm out. Kevin Durant is still one of the three best basketball players in the world. Get them in the tournament and see what happens. Maybe it’s not remotely likely they can survive the play-in and then a bunch of series without home court advantage. But it’s possible.

The Celtics can win the title. Elite defense, a top-tier scorer, good chemistry and culture, lots of high-stakes experience. The Celtics can win the title. The Bulls — are you betting against anything DeMar DeRozan is doing right now? Not me. Get Alex Caruso ramped up, get Lonzo Ball back, get Zach LaVine feeling a little bit better, get the right match-ups: not a team I want to play. If things break right, why not the Bulls?

Cavaliers, Raptors? Maybe less likely than even the teams mentioned above, but you can’t rule it out. I mean, you can probably rule out the Cavaliers and Raptors. But can you? And hey, the Hawks made the conference finals last season. The Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the East aren’t going to have first-round walkovers, no matter who the foe.

The Warriors have something to say, and can absolutely win the title. That’s it, that’s the statement: the Warriors have something to say, and can absolutely win the title. The Grizzlies never seem to be satisfied; I think it’s hard to imagine Memphis winning four playoff series at this stage, but it was hard to imagine Memphis competing for the No. 2 seed this season! The Grizzlies are, to a degree, unthinkable. They can win. The Jazz? I’m skeptical on several counts but making the Finals wouldn’t be the craziest thing that ever happened. Hey, why isn’t this team capable of doing what the 2020 Heat did? Imposing defensive presence in the middle, tireless scorer/creator on the perimeter? Eh?

Dallas has Luka Doncic, and he’s playing better than ever, which is really saying something. Typically teams like that do well in the playoffs. It’s possible. The Nuggets have the reigning and maybe repeating MVP in Nikola Jokic, they might win 50 games and they appear to be fairly close to bringing Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray back. They would have been a top-tier contender had those guys been healthy four months ago; why not now?

Look, I’m not saying the Lakers are a contender, they are a disaster, they are on pace to go 35-47, their only hope is winning the play-in tournament and beating the Suns in the first round, which is a tall order for any team but especially a 35-47 team, the odds for a Suns sweep would be much better than for any Lakers series win, all I’m saying is that if Anthony Davis comes back healthy and Russell Westbrook gets hot, look, all I’m saying is that LeBron scored 50 twice in a week just now, look, all I’m saying is that, you know, the lead duo of this franchise won a title two years ago, stranger things have happened in the NBA, not many stranger things, this would be among the strangest things to be honest, but look, it’s LeBron. Alright? It’s LeBron. I’m just saying.

I think the Suns probably win the championship if CP3 gets right and everyone else stays healthy. The Suns are so fricking good. But if they don’t, there are lots of compelling cases to be made and a whole lot of uncertainty. I don’t know or care if the uncertainty is good for ratings or interest or whatever. I know that as a viewer, as a fan, I’m in. Bring me the serendipity, the surprise, the mindblowing. I’m in.

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Scores

Grizzlies 135, Pacers 102 — Ja Morant sat out. The Memphis bench had an eFG of 67%. Tyrese Haliburton with a disappointing 4 points, 8 assists, 4 turnovers performance. He’s been better statistically across the board in Indiana with one red flag as a primary ballhandler: turnovers. His turnover percentage through 14 games as a Pacer is above 20%, which is not sustainable.

Nets 150, Magic 108 — The NBA’s weird March individual scoring explosion continues, as Kyrie Irving goes for 60 in 35 minutes on 77% eFG. He can be a marvel to watch, can’t he?

He sat the final eight minutes or so when he could have probably challenged the 80-point mark; Orlando couldn’t make it a competitive game at any point, so garbage time it was.

Pistons 98, Heat 105 — Jimmy Butler injured his ankle again. I hope he can get right and stay right for the playoffs. That Miami is No. 1 in the East with him available for about 7/10 of their games is pretty remarkable, especially when you remember how much time Bam Adebayo missed.

Suns 131, Pelicans 115 — The addition of C.J. McCollum didn’t really change this brutal math for New Orleans: 25-25 this season when Brandon Ingram plays, 3-16 when he doesn’t. I’ve been fooled by this franchise before, but I think the Pelicans have something if they can keep B.I, McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Zion Williamson on the floor together next season.

Schedule

Twelve games with an ESPN doubleheader. All times Eastern.

Hawks at Hornets, 7*
Sixers at Cavaliers, 7**
Nuggets at Wizards, 7
Mavericks at Nets, 7:30, ESPN**
Blazers at Knicks, 7:30
Suns at Rockets, 8
Lakers at Timberwolves, 8*
Thunder at Spurs, 8:30
Bulls at Jazz, 9**
Celtics at Warriors, 10, ESPN***
Bucks at Kings, 10
Raptors at Clippers, 10:30

Links

So happy for my brother Mike Prada, whose book SPACED OUT: HOW THE NBA’S THREE-POINT REVOLUTION CHANGED EVERYTHING YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW ABOUT BASKETBALL is now available for pre-order!

Jake Fischer reports that the Knicks expect to keep Tom Thibodeau for another season. You may remember that I included Thibs in the “almost certainly getting replaced” category with Alvin Gentry and Frank Vogel. I trust Fischer and acknowledge there are reasons to believe the Knicks will run it back. Still, I’m a little skeptical they don’t change their mind come April and May!

No finger surgery for Jarrett Allen, who may return before the playoffs.

I missed this the other day, but: sheesh.