Astral Codex Ten - Mantic Monday 3/21/22
WarcastingChanges in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post March 14:
If you like getting your news in this format, subscribe to the Metaculus Alert bot for more (and thanks to ACX Grants winner Nikos Bosse for creating it!) Insight Prediction: Still Alive, SomehowInsight Prediction was a collaboration between a Russia-based founder and a group of Ukrainian developers. So, uh, they’ve had a tough few weeks. But getting better! Their founder recently announced on Discord:
And:
And:
Out of the frying pan (Vladimir Putin) and into the fire (the CFTC). Still, welcome, and glad to hear you’re okay. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian development team continues to do good (can I say “heroic”?) work:
The upshot of all of this is that Insight is one of the leading platforms for predicting the Ukraine War right now: Now that there are two good-sized real-money prediction markets, we can compare them. For example, the first question, on Putin, is at 79.5%, which is reassuringly close to the same question on Polymarket, at 76%. On the other hand, the third market (will Russian troops enter Kiev?, currently at 52%) is almost a direct copy of this Metaculus question , which is currently at 92%. Why? The only difference I can find is that Insight requires two media sources to resolve positively and Metaculus only one - surely people don’t think there’s a 40% chance troops will enter Kyiv but only one source will report it? Further InsightAlso in Insight News: after escaping Russia, the founder of Insight has decided to go public with his real identity:
It’s exciting to have someone so influential involved in the field! Campbell has since written a blog post apologizing for and explaining Insight’s relatively inaccurate predictions about the beginning of the war:
I don’t think anyone should have to apologize for not moving a prediction market enough, but at least that explains what’s going on. Also, RIP Taras Bulba :( ACX 2022 Prediction Contest DataSeveral hundred of you joined me in trying to predict 70ish events this year. Sam Marks and Eric Neyman kindly processed all the data. You can find everything suitable for public release here. If you want the full dataset, including individual-level information about each predictor, you can fill out a request form here. What is “aggregate”? Sam and Eric applied a couple of tricks that have improved these kinds of forecasts in the past:
If you think you know more tricks, produce your own aggregate (this would be an excellent reason to request the full data) and send it to me. If it turns out more accurate than Sam and Eric’s, I’ll give you some kind of recognition and prize. The real dataset also has a “market” baseline that I didn’t include above. It’s mostly based off Manifold questions, but Manifold hadn’t really launched yet and most of them only had one or two bets and were wildly off everyone else’s guesses. I don’t think this is going to be a fair test of anything. Now that I know Sam and Eric are willing to put work into this, I’ll figure out something better for next year. In fact, I think a coordinated yearly question set to use as a benchmark could be really good for this space. Right now there’s no easy way to compare eg Metaculus to Polymarket because they both use really different questions. I’m hoping to get people together next year, come up with a standard question set, and give it to as many platforms (and individuals!) as possible to see what happens. Shorts1: AI researcher Rodney Brooks grades his AI-related predictions from 2018. 2: An Analysis Of Metaculus’ Resolved AI Predictions And Their Implications For AI Timelines. “Overall it looked like there was weak evidence to suggest the community expected more AI progress than actually occurred, but this was not conclusive.“ 3: An interesting counterexample: When Will Programs Write Programs For Us? The community prediction bounced between 2025 and 2028 (my own prediction was in this range). Even in late 2020, just before the question stopped accepting new predictions, the forecast was January 2027. The real answer was six months later, mid-2021, when OpenAI released Codex. I don’t want to update too much on a single data point, but this is quite the data point. If I had to cram this into the narrative of “not systematically underappreciating speed of AI progress”, I would draw on eg this question about fusion, where the resolution criteria (ignition) may have been met by an existing system - tech forecasters tend to underestimate the ability of cool prototypes to fulfill forecasting question criteria without being the One Amazing Breakthrough they’re looking for. 4: New (to me) site, Hedgehog Markets. So far they mostly just have entertaining tournaments, but the design is pretty and they seem interested in genuinely solving the decentralization problem, so I’ll be watching them. 5: New (to me) site, Aver. So far not many interesting markets, and very crypto-focused, but somehow (?) they have six-figure pools on several questions. Got to figure out what’s going on here. 6: New (to me) s . . . you know what, just assume there are a basically infinite number of crypto people starting not-entirely-confidence-inspiring prediction markets right now: The long wait has come to an end! 🔥
🏛 DELPHIBETS, the first prediction market platform exclusively on @radixdlt goes public 🚀
Follow us to make sure you don't miss anything:
📱 Telegram: t.me/delphibets
⚠️ First announcement: t.me/delphibets/33 Couldn't agree more on this take !
That's why I founded @UltiBets, the first multichain betting /prediction market protocol !
We have our @UltiBets IDO tomorrow on @thorstarter so nice coincidence to read this tweet mhonkasalo @mhonkasalo Prediction markets are still the big underrated (eventual) use case unlocked by blockchains.Finally, the hottest prediction market is now live. Predict the price of $ZIL token by March 31st.
Link: zilchill.com/user-market/10…
#RedChillies #ZilChill #PredictionMarket Prediction Market allowing users to predict outcomes of sports, eSports and other gaming events in a Decentralized manner and earn GFX rewards. 🏆2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS🏆
❓Oscar 2022 is about to begin! Who will win the Best Actor 2022 Oscar? Which film will win as the Best Picture?
🌎Find it out together with a #DeFi Prediction market @oracula_io! If any of them start looking more important than the others, I’ll let you know. You’re a free subscriber to Astral Codex Ten. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber. |
Older messages
Open Thread 216
Monday, March 21, 2022
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Highlights From The Comments On Zulresso
Wednesday, March 16, 2022
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Justice Creep
Wednesday, March 16, 2022
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Mantic Monday 3/14/22
Monday, March 14, 2022
More Ukraine warcasting, nuclear war risk, forecasters vs. experts
Open Thread 215
Sunday, March 13, 2022
...
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