April 26, 2022

Just like that, Elon Musk owns Twitter. We were a little disappointed to see that his first tweet as Twitter’s new owner wasn’t, “Wow I love Roca so much it is so awesome and cool haha.” Oh well, there’s always the next time someone buys a social media platform for $44B...

Huge announcement: We have launched a Roca Referral program!!! Share the wave, win prizes, and bring your friends aboard. More info below!

― Key Stories

Cooking Oil? Never Existed
Overview

• Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of palm oil, banned all palm oil exports
• Palm oil accounts for about 40% of global vegetable oil production, and is used in everything from chocolate and bread to soap and detergent. Indonesia produces 58% of the world’s palm oil
• Indonesia's government enacted the ban to combat surging food prices, stemming from the war in Ukraine
• The UN estimates that global vegetable oil prices are up 40% this year. The ban may push prices higher

Attacks in Moldova
Overview

• 3 attacks were reported in the Transnistria region of Moldova – a small, formerly Soviet country bordering Ukraine
• One attack was on a government building, another was on a Russian radio tower, and a third was on a military unit
• Moldova is one of Europe's poorest countries; Transnistria is a Russian-speaking region that fought a war for independence against Moldova in 1992. The war ended in a stalemate. Today, Transnistria is recognized by no country, but governs itself as though it were independent. It has close ties to Russia
• 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in Transnistria

US Prices Trending Up
Overview

• A national survey found that 47% of US small businesses are planning to raise prices by 4%+. 40% are planning to raise prices by 10%+
• The survey, conducted by a small business association, found that 86% of businesses have already raised prices because of inflation
• 95% of respondents said that inflation is having a “moderate” or “substantial” impact on their business
• The main sources of higher expenses were supplies, materials, inventory, and fuel, the survey found. Inflation was 8.5% from January through March, the highest level since 1981

Elon Musk to Buy Twitter
Overview

• Twitter’s board of directors accepted Elon Musk's $44B offer for the company
• In announcing the deal, Musk said, “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy” and called Twitter “the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated”
• Musk has said he will make Twitter's algorithms public, take the company private, verify that all users are humans, and limit lifetime user bans
• Musk is covering ~75% of the deal himself, via $21B in stock and a $12.5B loan. US regulators still need to approve the deal, which should close later this year

See yesterday's results below the Wrap!

 Popcorn

Culture & Sports

• City that never sweeps: The Boston Celtics completed a sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, the NBA's preseason title favorites, with a 116-112 win
• It's Captain Jack, your honor: On his 4th day at the stand, Johnny Depp lamented that he couldn't give Jack Sparrow a "proper goodbye"
• Box office banana peel: The star-studded Super Mario Bros movie will now open in April 2023 instead of December 2022 

• One small step for meat: Scientists are trying to produce lab-grown meat in space. The all-private SpaceX crew is doing the experiment
• A tiny book of 10 poems written by Charlotte Brontë at 13 was bought for $1.25M and will return home to the Brontë clergy house
• Eu, chemicals: The EU announced a plan for the "largest ever" ban of chemicals. The move could take out over 12,000 substances
• Dad, is that you? A California family discovered 5 bears hibernating under their house. They had dismissed all the weird sounds they heard

― Roca Wrap

A Newsletter Exclusive

Nestled at the southwestern edge of Ukraine is Moldova – a small, landlocked country that is Europe’s least-developed and home to 2.8M people.  

Like Ukraine, Moldova was part of the Soviet Union, gained its independence in 1991, and had a sizable Russian minority. Unlike Ukraine, though, most of its people are Moldovan/Romanian, who are not Slavic.

When the USSR collapsed, a strip of eastern Moldova that borders Ukraine declared independence. That region – Transnistria – had a Russian majority, and was supported by Russia. The war ended in a stalemate that turned Transnistria into a “fake country,” recognized by no other country but having its own government, passport, borders, and currency.  

Today, Transnistria is like a mini Russia: Billboards celebrate Vladimir Putin and the support of the Russian people, Russian is the only language, and Russia bankrolls the government. 1,500 Russian “peacekeepers” are stationed there. The set-up essentially gives Russia control over a slice of Moldova and therefore influence in Moldova and on Ukraine’s western border. 

The situation in Moldova and Transnistria hasn’t changed much in recent years, but the invasion of Ukraine raised the alarm: Days after the invasion, a war map accidentally released by the President of Russia-ally Belarus had an arrow indicating troops moving into Moldova. Moldova declared a state of emergency, and applied to join the EU days later. In response, Transnistria made another call for independence.

Last week, a Russian general announced that Russia’s new strategy was to take control of Ukraine’s entire south and east. Doing so would give Russia access to Transnistria, where, he claimed, “Russian-speaking people [are] being oppressed." That’s the same type of language that Russia used to justify prior invasions in Georgia and Ukraine.

Over the weekend, Moldova said it expressed “deep concern” to Russia. Then on Monday, there were explosions at a government building in Transnistria, which the Transnistrian government blamed on unknown attackers using rocket-propelled grenades. The Moldovan government then reported 2 other attacks: One on a Transnistrian military unit, and another on Russian radio towers. 

Without saying who was responsible, Moldova said the explosions were meant to create “pretexts for straining the security situation.” A Russian politician called it “a provocation aimed at drawing Russia deeper into military action in the region.”

Analysts say that whether or not Russia would like to invade, its ability to do so depends on success in southern Ukraine, which would give Russian troops access to Transnistria. The Russian military made quick inroads in Ukraine's south early in the war, but then got stuck, leaving southwestern Ukraine under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are currently several hundred miles from Moldova. In their way is Odessa, a heavily-fortified city of 1M that is Ukraine's third largest.  

Whether or not Russia can invade, the situation is tense in Moldova. It's unlikely to stop being so until Russian soldiers stop advancing toward their territory.

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― Final Thoughts