The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.11.2022
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.11.2022I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)CLICK HERE TO SEE THE STOCKTIPS RECORD WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE, HERE, & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this). Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings (Note: Red on the Earnings Calendar Indicates an Earnings Loss [Not Miss] Consensus), & Yesterdays Insider Buys. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here. MOST RECENT INSIDER BUYING TODAYS COMMENTARY Get a Cup of Coffee & Enjoy Catching Up! If you aren’t reading this daily you are missing out on a wealth of information that could prevent unforced & unnecessary trading errors. INFLATION REPORTED TODAY: April YoY CPI is expected to come in at 8.1%. March was 8.5% YoY. The only reason this month is expected to come in lower YoY is simply because the increase in inflation from April to May this year is expected to be lower than the same period last year. Even so, an 8.1% increase YoY in April still represents quite a large unsustainable jump. Last years March to April jump was 1.6% leading to a CPI of 4.2%. The 8.1% estimate represents a YoY increase of 8.1% higher than prices were AFTER the 4.2% a year ago (That’s roughly 12.5% price increases over a 24 month period). In order to hit the Feds target rate of inflation of 2% YoY, we should expect an average jump of 0.17 month to month. So, in order for inflation to be increasing at sustainable rates, we should look for 8.5%+0.17%-1.6%= roughly 7.07% (I say “roughly” because when we’re talking about a rate of increase we should factor in the compounding nature of inflation) . Therefore the consensus of 8.1% actually represents a jump of 1.03% month to month higher than sustainable levels. What we want is inflation to be increasing at a rate lower on average than experienced in the trailing 12 months. Last months 8.5% increase in YoY inflation assumes an 0.71% increase on average month to month while this month is expected to be an increase of 1.03% month to month. So what I would like to see is the CPI coming in lower than 7.61% for April 2022, although current April consensus is 0.49% higher. So to get the true feel of how bad inflation is, look at the MoM numbers … not the YoY numbers. Now … I don’t know how the hell analyst came up with that 8.1% consensus. I was expecting much lower given the 1.6% month to month jump last year. But understanding these numbers is important. We don’t want to get lost in the assumption that YoY inflation coming in lower in the latter month than the previous represents a decline in the rate inflation is actually increasing month to month. THE MARKETS MAY PUMP WITH THE BAD NEWS OUT OF THE WAY: We’ve all seen it before, … the markets price in bad news days or weeks prior, & once released its almost as if folks say “OK, we have another month before the next bad news release, lets swing this.” It’s happened in most months where inflation was supposed to be bad, save those months where inflation surprised much higher than expected. THE WORST IS NOT BEHIND US: Summer is coming, & with summer comes vacations & road trips. Historically energy prices increase over the summer which is especially bad news when energy is among the highest drivers of inflation. $5gal unleaded would not surprise me in June/July time frame. And given how oil/gas futures function it also would not surprise me if $4gal gas would be a price we would long for moving forward. An increase in energy prices, raises the prices of everything! NEXT BIG ECONOMIC NUMBERS: We have the Producers Price Index coming tomorrow at 0830ET. The month to month increase is expected to come in at 0.5% (consensus estimate). Remember the PPI is the firms version of the CPI. Whereas the CPI measures inflation from the consumers point of view, the PPI measures inflation from the producers point of view. A NOTE ON WAGES: Wages are increasing as a result of the scarcity in the labor market. Remember, raw wages only tell half the story. Not only are people paying more for the increase in consumer prices than they receive in wage increases, but they also pay more in taxes both on income & sales tax. Also firms must contribute their half of social security & Medicare taxes paid by employees. So lets not assume that a 3% increase in wages means firms are paying merely 3% more for labor. When we account for taxes & benefits (Like social security, Medicare, 401K’s, healthcare, life insurance, unemployment insurance, paid time off & more), its much more. Therefore the hotter the labor market, the higher inflation becomes. Significant News Heading into 05.11.2022:
PAID CONTENT IN THE PAYWALL BELOW:
👉CLICK HERE TO SEE THE DETAILS OF EVERY STOCK ON THE BUY LIST (AND SEE THE PRICE ASSESSMENT BASED WATCHLIST / THE STOCKS UNDER $20 LIST & THE HIGHLY SPECULATIVE LIST) LOGIN INSTRUCTIONS: You will need to login to see the detailed list. The “email login link” will send the link to login directly to your inbox (Click the link & it will automatically log you in). You can also choose the “login with password” option. You will need to set up a substack password for this option.Subscribe to StockTips Newsletter to read the rest.Become a paying subscriber of StockTips Newsletter to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. A subscription gets you:
|
Older messages
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.12.2022
Thursday, May 12, 2022
I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.10.2022
Tuesday, May 10, 2022
I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.09.2022
Monday, May 9, 2022
I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.06.2022
Friday, May 6, 2022
I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)
The Daily StockTips Newsletter 05.05.2022
Thursday, May 5, 2022
I've Screened the Market for what I Consider the Best, Safest, & Most RELIABLE Profit Opportunities! (Published 7:30 AM ET MON-FRI)
You Might Also Like
Blame it on the rent
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg When US inflation peaked above 7% back in 2022, the culprits were everywhere—spread across goods and services. Now, with inflation back below 3%,the
🇮🇳 It's all about India
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Chipmaker TSMC didn't have much to complain about | The US dollar has the world talking | Finimize TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for April 19th in 3:14 minutes. 🪙
Home makeover on a budget? We have just the thing.
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Lower rates and potential value boost — get started. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Mother Earth 🤝 Jane Fonda
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Plus, a new worksheet for stay-at-home moms. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Visionary Valuations - Issue #464
Thursday, April 18, 2024
From AI enhancements to fintech revolutions, uncover the potential of next-generation financial technologies. April 18, 2024 FinTech Weekly cuts through the noise to bring you insights on how
Prepare for a Recession Unlike Any Other
Thursday, April 18, 2024
The following is a third-party sponsored message. It should not be considered a recommendation or endorsement by HS Dent Publishing. Exchange Dems Impose Shocking Law "401K-Funded Reparations?
Three facts about the rising number of UK business exits
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Jelle Barkema, Maren Froemel and Sophie Piton Record-high firm exits make headlines, but who are the firms going out of business? This post documents three facts about the rising number of corporations
Big Tech drops
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg The US stock market saw its longest losing streak since January as a handful of big tech companies sold off. Equities fell for a fourth straight day
📉 ASML's chips are down
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Chip company ASML issued a bad omen | UK inflation was close to expectations, but close doesn't cut it | Finimize TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for April 18th in 3:13
Are you having credit report trouble?
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Don't let mistakes hurt your credit score. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏