TL;DR Takeaways

• Primaries were held on Tuesday in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania. Many races are still uncalled and several are headed for recounts.

• “The Big Lie” took a brief hiatus on Tuesday as Republican candidates were suspiciously silent about voter fraud. It shows that Republicans don’t quite distrust all elections, only the ones they lose to Democrats.

• Several outside groups attempted to sway House races across the country by spending millions to support their preferred candidates. Many of these candidates lost to those with strong grassroots campaigns, proving that while money is a powerful force in politics, you still can’t buy a seat in Congress.

• The opposite trend was seen in statewide races: every incumbent candidate in senate and gubernatorial races sailed to victory while open seats were largely won by candidates with establishment connections. If House races showed the limitations of nationalizing local races, the senate and gubernatorial primaries proved that statewide races may be easier targets for big spenders.

Idaho’s US House Primary Winners

1. Restrictions Apply to “The Big Lie”

After a busy primary day where Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania all held elections, many races are still uncalled across the nation. This includes several Republican primaries, including the contentious Pennsylvania Senate race. The calm they showed in the face of uncertainty proved that Republicans don’t quite distrust all elections, only the ones they lose to Democrats.

Prominent election denier Doug Mastriano was spreading baseless claims of voter fraud throughout his campaign. Yet after he was declared the winner of Pennsylvania’s GOP primary for governor, he offered no critiques (or lies) about the integrity of his own election. Mastriano will face off against Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro in November.

Further south in North Carolina another election denier showed faith in their Republican primary despite defeat. After being elected in 2020, Rep. Madison Cawthorn vowed that his “first act as a member of Congress will be to object to the Electoral College certification of the 2020 election.” He then continued to spread lies about voter fraud throughout his tenure in Congress. After being ousted from Congress by losing to challenger Chuck Edwards by barely 2 points, he conceded and even called for other local Republicans to line up behind Edwards.

Mots of the election denier rhetoric this week has come from Donald Trump himself. Mehmet Oz and Dave McCormick are locked in a nail-bitingly close race for the GOP’s Senate nomination in Pennsylvania and roughly 1100 votes separate the two candidates with 99% of the vote reported. Despite the fact that the race is likely headed to a recount, the former president pressed his preferred candidate to declare premature victory.

“Dr. Oz should declare victory. It makes it much harder for them to cheat with the ballots that they ‘just happened to find.’” - Donald Trump

Oz has ignored this plea and both candidates have been following previously commonplace norms: projecting confidence in their campaigns while still encouraging voters to be patient and trust the process. While many hope that the GOP’s election fever is finally breaking, Trump’s continued commitment to subverting norms and hand-picking winners without waiting for the full vote count proves that this nightmare is far from over.

Pennsylvania’s US House Primary Winners

2. Grassroots organizing can’t be overlooked.

On the Democratic side, the big story of the night was how grassroots organizers fought big-spender candidates and produced wins.

Incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader outspent Jamie McLeod-Skinner by $3 million in OR-5 and with roughly 50% of the votes counted, he’s trailing her by 21 points. McLeod-Skinner is no newcomer to state politics: she’s run for office twice before and has slowly peeled away labor union endorsements from Schrader.

Elsewhere in Oregon, House candidate Carrick Flynn had over $10 million in outside money spent on his behalf thanks to “crypto bro” Sam Bankman-Fried. Flynn conceded to his challenger Andrea Salinas, on Tuesday after trailing by roughly 18 points.

Over in Pennsylvania, Summer Lee is currently leading challenger Steve Irwin by less than 1,000 votes in the PA-12 Democratic primary with 98% of the votes counted. Lee has been identified as a rising star amongst the Democrats’ progressive wing and she’s been outspent by her more establishment-aligned challenger. Lee also fought against additional headwinds as AIPAC funded attack ads against her. These races help prove, while money is a powerful force in politics, you still can’t buy a seat in Congress.

Oregon’s US House Primary Winners

3. Establishment-aligned politicians survive in statewide races.

While House primaries helped prove the power of grassroots campaigning in local elections, the results of the senate and gubernatorial primaries give weight to the power of established politicians in statewide races. All statewide incumbents in these primaries won their races. Senators Mike Crapo and Rand Paul easily fended off challengers to their right. Idaho Gov. Brad Little also sailed to a win over his radical challenger Lt. Gov Janice McGeachin by a comfortable 20-point margin. The anti-establishment candidates who won statewide primary races were mainly found in Pennsylvania.

Doug Mastriano may be the most anti-establishment winner of the night due to his aforementioned commitment to spreading lies about voter fraud. Mehmet Oz certainly fits the anti-establishment label as well, especially since his challenger Dave McCormick served as an Under Secretary during the George w. Bush administration. On the Democratic side, US Senate candidate John Fetterman has been labeled a political outsider as he’s routinely avoided rubbing elbows with established politicians. He beat out not one but two challengers who received endorsements from federal politicians.

But outside of Pennsylvania, voters overwhelmingly supported statewide candidates with high name-recognition and signaled a general unwillingness to take chances on political newcomers.

US Senate Primary Winners

Gubernatorial Primary Winners

Kentucky’s US House Primary Winners

North Carolina’s US House Primary Winners