Not sure exactly what happened but Substack sent out a working draft of this email rather than the final draft. Please ignore/delete that first send and the post below should be correct.

This post builds on a previous post on Florida’s new congressional districts. Read that first to get up to speed.

Topline Takeaways

• After a bit of a stand-off, Republicans in Florida’s legislature passed a new map to Gov. Desantis’s liking, dismantling the majority Black FL-5.

• The new map was initially struck down by a court but was reinstated on appeal. The map will be used for the 2022 elections but may still be overturned at a later date.

• Most of the controversy over the map is focused on North Florida as districts in South Florida were left largely untouched.

Who’s In Control?

Florida’s redistricting process is completely controlled by the state legislature and requires gubernatorial approval before being adopted. Republicans are firmly in the drivers seat here as they hold a trifecta: majorities in both houses alongside a Republican governor.

In a rare move for redistricting, Gov. Ron DeSantis submitted his own map for consideration by the legislature with an explicit directive to break-up FL-5. After a bit of a stand-off (many in the legislature believed DeSantis’s approved plan would be struck down as unconstitutional), Republicans relented to the governors demands and passed his preferred map.

District Breakdown

Florida’s new congressional district map faced lawsuits almost immediately after being approved. However, like Georgia and Alabama, it is expected that these new maps will be valid for the 2022 midterm elections as judges have previously ruled that it’s “too late” to produce fairer maps for the upcoming elections.

While that means the lines are set for 2022, many still expect the map to be ruled as unconstitutional for both partisan AND racial gerrymandering. As I explained in my previous post, DeSantis’s request to eliminate a majority-Black district likely runs afoul of the Voting Rights Act. In addition, Florida’s constitution requires that new districts be drawn in such a way that they do not “favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.” The map above takes four districts that previously leaned toward Democrats and flips them for Republicans, ultimately giving the GOP a 10-seat advantage statewide (19-9). (If the partisan breakdown of new districts accurately reflected past voting patterns, the GOP would only have a 2-seat advantage, 15-13.)

Most of the gerrymandering issues lie in North Florida, where DeSantis eliminated the previous configuration of a majority-Black FL-5. Instead of drawing a district that would hold most of Jacksonville in its entirety, the city is split right down the middle with the old FL-5 now reaching up north to the Florida-Georgia border. This also forces Rep. Al Lawson, the FL-5 incumbent, to face off against the Republican incumbent, Rep. Neal Dunn, in a Republican leaning district.

Both the Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas also saw their districts reconfigured in such a way that both cities are expected to lose at least one Democratic House representative. Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy and Charlie Crist are both resigning from their respective seats and are expected to be replaced by Republicans in November.

Meanwhile, South Florida’s new districts are much more conventional as the updated map doesn’t really touch districts in and around Miami. No districts flipped parties in South Florida.

Leftover Links

• Controversial voting laws that were previously struck down were previously reinstated thanks to the Purcell principle.

• Learn more about the NAACP’s federal gerrymandering lawsuit against Florida’s new congressional districts.