Topline Takeaways

• New Jersey’s “bipartisan” redistricting commission resulted in a heavily partisan map, favoring Democrats.

• The new map reduces the competitiveness of both parties’ House seats, taking the number of swing districts down from four to two.

Who’s In Control?

New Jersey uses a bipartisan redistricting commission to draw its new congressional districts, however; the process resulted in a strongly partisan map. Since state-level legislators can hold a seat on the commission, both Republican and Democratic members submitted maps that heavily favored their respective party. The commission’s decision ultimately came down to the nonpartisan “tiebreaker:” New Jersey Supreme Court Justice John Wallace. Wallace ultimately sided with Democrats on the commission and passed the maps above in late December. Republicans submitted a lawsuit against the map, alleging a partisan gerrymander, but the state Supreme Court dismissed the case in early February.

New District Breakdown

New Jersey’s new congressional districts heavily favor Democrats. Over the past three House elections, on average about 56% of New Jersey voters backed the Democratic party, which would equate to roughly 7 seats. The new map gives Democrats a significant edge in 10 seats across the state, with only one being considered a swing district.

Mapmakers were able to create this gain for Democrats by making nearly half of the state’s seats less competitive. Four districts across the state moved 7 points or more away from the center, ultimately bringing the number of swing districts down from four to two. Two of the biggest shifts for Democrats were seen in NJ-3 and NJ-11: both were formerly swing districts that now favor Democrats by over 10 points. To secure these seats Dems also had to decrease the competitiveness one of the state’s two Republican leaning districts: NJ-4 shifted 12 points toward the GOP after already voting for Trump by a 10-point margin in 2020.

Leftover Links

• How will the “MAGA” wing of Republicanism fare in the state’s upcoming primary election?

• Find out how many New Jersey voters were shifted into new districts with this new map.