Election Essentials

US House Primaries to Watch: AL-5, GA-2, GA-6, GA-7, MN-1, TX-15, TX-28, TX-30

• Alabama is likely to send two Republican incumbents back to Congress who won’t face any challengers in either the primary or the general elections.

• Arkansas has a sleepy slate of primaries with no contested races for Democrats and a Republican field of incumbents who are all expected to be renominated.

• Georgia’s new House districts have warped the state’s primary landscape, forcing two Democratic incumbents to face off while gifting an open seat to Republicans.

• Minnesota holds a special House primary to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Jim Hagedorn.

• Texas holds runoffs to finish out its March primaries. Most attention is being paid toward the Democratic House runoffs as the Republican runoffs are mostly in bluer districts.

Alabama’s US House Primaries

To start, Democrats failed to field any primary candidates in AL-1 or AL-6. Since the Republican incumbents in these districts are running unopposed in their primaries, Reps. Jerry Carl and Gary Palmer are likely to be “re-elected” to Congress without facing any challengers in 2022. (Both voted to overturn the 2020 election results.)

Many of the Democrats in contested primaries have run for Congress before. Phyllis Harvey-Hall is campaigning in AL-2 after losing to incumbent Barry Moore in 2020. She cited Moore’s vote to overturn the 2020 election results as the catalyst for running again: “I knew that we had to have someone who was willing to go in and challenge him and actually fight for this district again.” In AL-4, Rick Neighbors is running a second time after losing to Republican incumbent Rob Aderholt in 2020.

The Republican primary for the state’s fastest growing district, AL-5, is Alabama’s hottest House race of the night. With Mo Brooks vacating his seat to run for Senate, six Republicans have stepped up to take a seat that leans toward the party by 27 points. The current leader in the fundraising race is Madison County Commissioner Dale Strong as he’s the only candidate to raise more than $1million and the only candidate to attract any outside spending.

Arkansas’ US House Primaries

The Democratic primaries in Arkansas are actually fairly undemocratic. With only one primary candidate fielded in every district, Democratic voters don’t really have any choices to make for their House nominees.

Arkansas’ Republican House primaries aren’t that much more lively. All of the state’s Republican incumbents are expected to win their races as mostly radical challengers have emerged. That’s easily the most important story to keep an eye on as results start coming in from Arkansas: expect alarm bells to go off if one of these radicals unseats an incumbent. (To underline just how radical these challengers are: one holds the racist Great Replacement theory as a central tenet of his campaign, another still believes the 2020 election was fraudulent.)

Georgia’s US House Primaries

The Republican primary in GA-2 is getting attention as the district provides a pick-up opportunity for the party if they can nominate the right candidate. The district tilted toward Biden by roughly 10 points in 2020 and is just shy of being majority African American. The current frontrunner is believed to be a rare Black Republican, Jeremy Hunt, as he’s topped the candidate list in fundraising. The winner of the primary is expected to face off against Democratic incumbent Rep. Sanford Bishop Jr.

Georgia’s sixth congressional district is expected to flip parties as it was redrawn from being a blue district to one that supported Trump by a 15-point margin. Democratic prospects here are so slim that the district’s incumbent, Rep. Lucy McBath opted to run in a different district (more on that in a bit) leaving the seat wide open for Republicans to capture. The current frontrunners are the Trump-endorsed Jake Evans and the more moderate Rich McCormick.

A flipped GA-6 has produced a tense Democratic primary in GA-7. Rep McBath chose to run against the current incumbent for GA-7: Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux. Bourdeaux holds the advantage between the two incumbents as the new GA-7 holds more than two-thirds of the voters who elected her to Congress previously. The race stands out as it highlights Republican efforts to gerrymander themselves a new district. Prior to redistricting, McBath and Bourdeaux were known nationally for flipping what were once two swing districts to Democrats. Georgia’s new districts erase that progress and instead practically guarantee GA-6 for Republicans and GA-7 for Democrats. That was particularly hard for local voters to swallow as many held both women incumbents in high esteem and are upset that they’re forced to choose between the two.

Texas’s US House Runoffs

Texas held its primaries months ago in early March. Any candidates that failed to receive a majority of the vote were forced into a runoff that is scheduled for this week. Most of the Republican House runoffs are happening in relatively blue districts where neither candidate has a reasonable shot in the general election. As a result, a lot of attention is being paid to Texas’s Democratic House primaries as several races are emblematic of the national divide between the moderate and progressive wings of the party.

TX-28 (D): Rep. Henry Cuellar v. Jessica Cisneros

The top race of the night is the rematch between incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros. The race has taken on a whole new dimension in the wake of the leaked SCOTUS document regarding Roe v. Wade. Prior to the leak, Cuellar was proudly positioning himself as a moderate as his district was a swing district in the 2020 election, only supporting by Biden by a 7 point margin. Now with the national Democratic party giving full throated support to federal protections for abortion access, Cuellar finds himself on an island. Cisneros’s campaign has leapt at the opening, painting Cuellar as “the Joe Manchin of the House.” Expect this to be yet another close race between the two candidates.

TX-15 (D): Ruben Ramirez v. Michelle Vallejo

This district sits just east of TX-28 and is seeing a similar dynamic play out with its Democratic House candidates. Ruben Ramirez falls in the moderate lane, receiving support from the moderate Blue Dog Coalition. Michelle Vallejo is the burgeoning progressive who has received high-profile endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. The big difference here from TX-28 is that this new district is currently open (the previous incumbent is running in a different district) and is considered a swing district that narrowly supported Trump by 2 points in 2020. So unlike in TX-28, the eventual Democratic primary winner will not be in a favorable position in the general as the Republican challenger, Monica De La Cruz, hits all of the mainstream Republican talking points without coming off as too radical for most conservative voters.

TX-30 (D): Jane Hope Hamilton v. Jasmine Crockett

Hamilton is a longtime local Democratic operative who’s being supported by the local Democratic establishment in Dallas. Crockett is a first-term Texas House representative who held the most liberal voting record of all Texas House members in the most recent term. The retiring incumbent, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, may ultimately play kingmaker (or queenmaker?) in her choice to endorse Crockett as the district leans toward Democrats by a wide margin.

Minnesota’s Special US House Primary (MN-1 only)

Minnesota’s first congressional district seat was vacated following the death of Rep. Jim Hagedorn. A long list of candidates has emerged to take his place, including his widow, former Republican Party Chairwoman Jennifer Carnahan. While one of the 8 Democrats running have a slim chance in the general election, most are expecting the Republican nominee to win this district after it supported Trump by a 9-point margin in 2020. Who that may be is anybody’s guess as 10 candidates have crowded the Republican side of the field.