Topline Takeaways

• Wisconsin is a rare state where neither major party controls the redistricting process due to the state’s current political makeup. The new map was ultimately approved by the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

• Justices on the court selected a map that created as few changes from the old map to bridge the impasse between the Republican legislature and the Democratic governor.

• Wisconsin’s congressional districts still favor Republicans, largely due to strategies used to create the previous map in 2010.

Who’s In Control?

Wisconsin is a rare state this cycle where neither major party controls the redistricting process due to the state’s current political makeup. Wisconsin’s Republican-led legislature holds the power to draw maps that must be signed into law by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. As expected: Republicans submitted a map that favored their party and Gov. Evers vetoed that proposal. After the governor’s veto, redistricting power falls to the Wisconsin Supreme Court and justices committed to an approach that maintained the status quo, changing as few district lines as possible. In the end, justices selected a map submitted by Democratic Gov. Evers that still favors Republicans (the previous map favored the party) but produces some small gains for Democrats.

New District Breakdown

Since the justices opted for a map that created few cosmetic changes, Republicans maintain their 6-2 advantage, although several seats are inching toward Democrats. To put in perspective how favorable Wisconsin’s map is for Republicans: in both 2016 and 2018 they won a majority of the state’s congressional seats without winning the majority of votes statewide.

The new map helps correct this lean primarily in the state’s first congressional district, home to Kenosha, Racine and other Wisconsin suburbs lying between Chicago and Milwaukee. The new WI-1 loses much of rural Waukesha county, giving more power to the suburbs along the coast of Lake Michigan. This is a rare case where a swing district became more competitive after redistricting: the district shifted to the left by seven points and would have been decided by barely 2 points in the 2020 presidential election.

After serving in Congress for almost 25 years Democrat Ron Kind has announced his retirement from his long-held seat in WI-3. The announcement was met with celebration from Republicans as Wisconsin’s third congressional district had been shifting right throughout the 2010s. After supporting Obama’s re-election by a 10-point margin in 2012, voters here supported Trump in both of his campaigns by a 5-point margin. Rep. Kind held the district for Democrats throughout Trump’s rise but with his retirement, many are expecting Republicans to finally take the seat for the first time since 1997.

Leftover Links

• Learn more about REDMAP: the Republican party’s national approach to redistricting following the 2010 census (last cycle).

• Get a preview of the Democratic primary in WI-3 as it will be one of the primary races to watch in August.