WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this).

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Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

UPDATE FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS: Looks like we timed it right! Everything lined up. Poor financials, inflation numbers inbound, & a mountain of uncertainty. Hard to find additional plays with so much uncertainty. Lets see if we cant get a healthy dump on PPI data.

• SHORT 1 dumped an additional 0.62%, after dropping 3.9% yesterday, & 4% on Tuesday.

• SHORT 2 dumped an additional 2.33%, after dropping 3.34% yesterday, & 4.92% Tuesday.

• SHORT 3 dropped 1.30% after increasing 1% yesterday, after dropping 1.67% Tuesday.

WHAT TO DO MOVING FORWARD: Earnings are going to be the major indicator as to the true state of the market. Traders will have to answer two primary questions as the results come in. 1) Given the earnings, is the company trading at a value? 2) Given the underlying & forward looking market/economic conditions, can the company maintain a profit & respectable earnings in the subsequent months/years? The current share price relative to current & future expected earnings will dictate whether a company is worth investing in over the long haul. And if you aren’t buying for the long haul, then you’re risking more than you should be when going long. I do not have high hopes this earnings season, & I don’t think anyone else should either. Those layoffs you’ve been reading about are real, & they’re happening for a reason. These large firms aren’t laying off employees because they’re having a harder time making a profit … although that’s part of it. They’re laying off folks as a result of assessed poor forward economic conditions. They can see it. We should too!

IMPORTANT: Remember that this earnings season will be the first full earnings affected by high gas prices, the China lockdowns, & the war in Ukraine. Roughly a third of Q1 was influenced by these factors. Nearly all of Q2 is affected by these three factors, & on two of those three items … it continues to. Yes lockdowns are still an issue in China, but not as much as it was in April & May.

YESTERDAY’S INFLAITON CUT: 9.1% when 8.8% was expected. Well that was because food & energy right? Well, lets look at the Core CPI which excludes that. It peaked at 6.5% YoY in March, & June numbers read 5.9% YoY. So it looks like its increasing at a slower rate correct? Wrong, reading YoY data can be misleading. Month to Month Core CPI increased 1.3% which is the highest rate since 2008. And if you think YoY inflation can’t get higher from here, I would caution you that last year both June & July YoY inflation came in at 5.4%, only to decrease in August to 5.3% & pop back up to 5.4% in September. This means in part that even the slightest price increases amid the same months this year will look awful as compared to last year, as YoY inflation ran exceptionally flat from June-September 2021.

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TODAY’S OBSERVATIONS: Today we have the PPI (Producer Inflation) for June expected to come in at 0.8% Month to Month / 10.7% Year over Year (Amazing). The CPI came in hot, both the overall & core, so there’s no reason not to expect the same for producers. Tomorrow we have Retail Sales (0.8% MoM Expected / 6.5% YoY Forecasted). And though Retail Sales will be the headline hog, We also have the July NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (-2 Expected), June Industrial Production (-0.1% YoY expected), June Manufacturing Production (-0.1% YoY Expected), Consumer Sentiment, May Business Inventories (an increase of 1.3% MoM expected), & the all important May Retail Inventories (+0.8% MoM Forecasted).

WORLD MARKETS:

• Stock futures slip after Wednesday’s session as Wall Street awaits bank earnings

• European markets trade lower as investors digest U.S. inflation data

• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falls while Asia markets trade higher; Singapore tightens monetary policy

• Bond yields rise as yield curve inversion sends worrying recession signals

RECOMMENDED:

• Average rent in Manhattan was a record $5,000 last month

• Americans are paying record-high prices for new vehicles

• Traders are betting the Fed could raise interest rates by 1% this month

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