WE’RE ON YOUTUBE NOW! See HERE & HERE (Yeah … I’m REALLY excited about this).

Follow on Twitter

Before you Trade Today: Know the Economic Calendar! Also See This Weeks Most Anticipated Earnings. NEVER BE SURPRISED BY EASILY ANTICIPATED MARKET BREAKING NEWS. That’s our goal here.

FAIR WARNING: Note that (including today) we are 3 TRADING DAYS AWAY (THAT INCLUDES TODAY) FROM JUNE INFLATION DATA.

UPDATE FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS: Still sitting on three short positions. Two have printed for me, one is just stubborn & doesn’t want to move. There is also an update on yesterdays highly risky short play strategy. You will also find some results from yesterday’s earnings & insider buy’s/sells.

OBSERVATIONS: As indicated yesterday the market approved of what would normally be a poor sign in a bull market; forecasts for jobs & unemployment expectations were in line with “topping off.” This is good when high inflation is the norm. But the real jobs numbers come out at 0830 today (See below). Notice I said “in line with expectations of topping off.” Don’t get me wrong, the jobs market is still hot! Todays job numbers will be an indicator of exactly how hot the jobs market is, & if labor inflation will continue to drive the overall inflation numbers. Do not be surprised if it comes in out of whack with the ADP estimate. It always does!

At least two decision makers from the Fed are advocating for maintaining high monthly rate hikes. Indeed the Fed now seems concerned about inflation … at the expense of a recession … at the expense of equities. Honestly this is a good thing.

Including today we are 3 full market days away from the inflation data, which expected to come in at 8.7%. Listen, I don’t care if it comes in at 8% nor do I care if it comes in at 9%. In the grand scheme of things, compounding YoY inflation is serious! The longer it lasts the worse things will be. Therefore, regardless of the numbers, I think everyone with their heads in the clouds as a result of this week’s rally are far too optimistic. Remember those numbers on your trading screen aren't brownie points. It’s real money! Take care of it!

Follow on Twitter

UPCOMING MARKET MOVING NEWS: Today we have Wholesale Inventories. It would be marked in red if only the data was more recent (The numbers are for May). Analyst consensus on Wholesale Inventories are a 2% increase MoM for May. You don’t want to see it come in higher than that … it means businesses are having a hard time moving product. Also don’t be surprised at 10:00 ET if the market suddenly shifts as a result of the data. Can come out of nowhere if you aren’t expecting it.

We also have June Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment. This may make or break our day. Consensus Non-Farm Payrolls is 268,000. We want to see it either come in line or lower than that. Why? Inflation! June unemployment is expected to come in at 3.6%. We want a higher number for the same reason. The tighter the labor market the more inflation will skyrocket. And speaking of that, Average Hourly Earnings MoM are expected to come in at +0.3% & labor force participation is expected to come in at 62.3%. We want to see the latter number increase! ALL OF THIS GETS RELEASED 0830 TODAY.

WORLD MARKETS: I see a lot of chat about optimism … it is indeed that time of the month … the time where people conveniently forgot about the upcoming inflation report & subsequent Fed rate hikes.

• Stock futures edge lower ahead of key jobs report

• Japanese stocks give up most gains after reports that former PM Shinzo Abe was shot

• European stocks mixed, on course for positive week ahead of U.S. payrolls

RECOMMENDED:

• 10-year Treasury yield below 3% as traders look ahead to jobs data

• Walmart won’t hold rival event to Amazon Prime Day, as it is already offering big markdowns (AN INDICATOR THAT WMT MUST KEEP PRICES AS IS, LEST THEY SUFFER UNACCEPTIBLE EPS ATTRITION)

• Fed officials Waller and Bullard back another big interest rate increase in July (THIS IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND)

• June jobs report is not expected to show an economic slowdown or a recession looming

TODAY’S EARNINGS & CONSENSUS EXPECTATIONS: N/A FRIDAY’S RARELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE OFF SEASON...