This week, Maryland is thrust into the political spotlight as it’ll holding primaries on its own this Tuesday, July 21. As a born-and-raised Marylander, I figured this would be a great time to dive deep into my home state, so welcome to Maryland Week! In addition to covering the results of the upcoming primary, I’ll be diving into Maryland’s current political leadership as several Maryland politicians hold high-profile positions within their party. I’ll also give an update on Maryland’s congressional redistricting process as the previously passed map was thrown out due to partisan gerrymandering.

But before we dive into the state’s political future, let’s take a moment to recap recent electoral history. The post below was originally published last year and walks through Maryland’s 2020 presidential election results. Take a trip down memory lane to see what Maryland’s last election can tell us about its next one.

2020 Pres. Election Topline Takeaways

• Pres. Joe Biden beat expectations in Maryland, increasing the margins in most counties when compared to Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016.

• Donald Trump did best in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, areas that are sparsely populated and largely rely on agriculture.

• Democratic success in the state is largely due to a mix of high educational attainment and a diverse electorate.

In-Depth Insights

Joe Biden’s monumental success in Maryland proves the state’s continued status as a Democratic stronghold. In the 2016 election, Maryland only fell behind DC, California and Hawaii in its support for Hillary Clinton, giving her just over 60% of the vote statewide. Pres. Biden managed to push that high watermark even higher, running ahead of Clinton in just about every county in the state. The base of Democratic support lies in the center of the state surrounding Washington, DC and Baltimore. These voters makeup over 80% of the state’s voting base. Democratic strength is most often attributed to the state’s large African American population: almost 1 in 3 residents identify as such. When including other minority populations, the state stands as having the fifth-highest proportion of minorities in the country. This diverse coalition has largely rejected the race-baiting politics of Trumpism and only entertains moderate Republican candidates like term-limited governor Larry Hogan.

Donald Trump’s base of support falls primarily within Maryland’s two panhandle regions, whose geographies are incredibly different from one another. Western Maryland shares more in common with neighboring West Virginia than the rest of the state: the rugged terrain produced by the Appalachian Mountains keeps towns small. Its economy relies more on agriculture and less on information and technology like the rest of the state. The three counties that make up Western Maryland: Garrett, Allegany and Washington, are also a part of the Appalachian Regional Commission, a federal-state partnership that works to bring opportunity to those living in the mountainous region.

Meanwhile to the east of the Chesapeake Bay lies counties that are often dubbed the “Eastern Shore.” The land in this area is incredibly flat and is known best for its seafood, specifically the Chesapeake blue crab, widely considered a traditional Maryland culinary delicacy. Much of the Eastern Shore’s economy is based around agriculture, with grain farming and large-scale chicken breeding being popular in the area.

The primary similarities between the two panhandles are its low population density and low educational attainment relative to the rest of the state. Several counties in the blue heart of Maryland have as many as 66% of its residents holding a college degree. Conversely, much of the counties Trump won along the state’s edges have half that level of educational attainment; many holding less than 1-in-3 residents with a college degree.

Forecasting the Future: Joe Biden performed better than expected, flipping three largely rural counties: Frederick, Kent and Talbot. (Two of which hadn’t voted for a Democratic candidate since 1964.) To make matters worse for Republicans, more than half of the state’s counties moved toward Democrats by 5 or more points, proving that embracing Trumpism is a losing battle for Maryland Republicans.

Despite the deep aversion to Trump, Governor Larry Hogan has proven that Republicans can carve a path to victory in the state, but that path involves forcefully standing up to Trump in ways that most in the party are unwilling to engage.

Leftover Links

• Current governor Larry Hogan (R) is term-limited and can’t run for reelection, what will be his next step? Senate? President?