Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Recession call gets cloudy

The word recession seems to be in every other headline these days, but a shift in how US consumers are spending just landed with a thud in the Wall Street echo chamber. Shoppers are returning to stores, traveling and going to concerts—but they’re spending less on remodeling and entertaining themselves at home. Partway through the latest US earnings season, corporate results—some good, some bad—are feeding the debate about just how much damage the American economy has really sustained in recent months. Job creation is healthy and unemployment extremely low, but prices are rising, eroding consumers’ buying power. In other words, nobody seems to know what happens next.  —David E. Rovella

Bloomberg is tracking the coronavirus pandemic and the progress of global vaccination efforts.

When it comes to fossil fuel companies, nothing spells huge profits like  worldwide calamity. Spurred on by pandemic fallout and Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, rising gasoline prices have stoked inflation and piled pressure on consumers. But Big Oil’s biggest members are all smiles, poised as they are for a record-breaking $50 billion in profits. Indeed, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and BP are set to make even more money than they did in 2008—when the financial crisis nearly brought down the global economy. 

European Union countries reached an agreement to cut their natural gas use by 15% through next winter as the prospect of a full cut-off from Russian supplies grows more likely. Seeking to pressure EU countries over their sanctions for his war on Ukraine, Putin is likely to keep vital gas flows at minimal levels, hoping Europe will buckle. 

With Ukraine’s grain-export deal signed, and assuming Russia lives up to its end of the bargain, another obstacle remains: freeing the scores of ships stuck there since February. As many as 100 vessels carrying grain and agricultural products were trapped in Ukrainian ports when Russia’s invasion began. Seeing them sail would mark a first step in revitalizing seaborne trade. 

Coinbase Global is facing a US probe into whether it improperly let Americans trade digital assets that should have been registered as securities.

Canadian e-commerce firm  Shopify will fire about 10% of its workforce because, the company says, its decision to expand rapidly in the wake of the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic didn’t worked out as planned.

US President Joe Biden is considering extending a pause on student loan repayments for several more months, as well as forgiving $10,000 in student loan debt per borrower. The current moratorium on student loan payments expires Aug. 31, and a fresh pause could extend either through the end of 2022 or until next summer. While some see the proposal as a transparent bid for young votes ahead of the midterms, there are some indications Biden may be about to win a few victories on Capitol Hill.

Deutsche Lufthansa will cancel almost all flights from its main German hubs in Frankfurt and Munich Wednesday because of a strike by ground crew, exacerbating the chaos that’s snarled Europe’s crucial summer travel season. Waiting lines snaking out of terminals, mountains of stranded luggage and hastily canceled flights have become the scourge of European aviation this summer. In a further disruption for travelers, much of the UK’s train network is set to be shut down on Wednesday by a railway worker strike.

• Microsoft sales growth slows on tepid demand and a strong dollar.
• Cathie Wood-linked ETFs are standing out from the $6.4 trillion pack.
• Bank overdraft fees are costing consumers billions of dollars.
• Almost one million Californians are drinking tainted water.
• Credit Suisse reportedly plans to announce its CEO’s departure.
• Mexico’s “super peso” shocks traders who had bet on a wipeout.
• Bloomberg Opinion: It’s time to wake up to the risk of Monkeypox.

It’s not getting any easier for renters across America. The median monthly price for a newly listed one-bedroom apartments has climbed 11% to $1,450 from a year ago. Here are the most expensive places to rent—and the cheapest.

An apartment building in Manhattan. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

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