Holiday Sales Will Rise Despite a Swirl of Uncertainty

First, the good news: despite rampant uncertainty and disruption, retailers can expect sales to increase this year over last.

And that’s no small achievement, given last year’s record-setting performance.

That said, much of the rise will be nominal, as inflation exacts a toll. Bain expects sales to increase 7.5%, but real dollar growth will be more modest, at 1-3%.

Several forces are putting a damper on sales—not only the continuing impact of inflation but also lingering supply chain disruptions, soaring interest rates, and a decline in consumer confidence. On the other hand, employment and wage growth are strong, giving consumers more purchasing power.

What does it all mean? Retailers have a great opportunity to power through this period of uncertainty and emerge stronger—if they make the right moves now. Experience shows that more market share is won (or lost) in times of turbulence. Retailers who take six specific actions can seize the moment and not only have a happy holiday season but emerge into a brighter 2023.