Finimize - 📉 2023 has price-drop potential

Amgen bought Horizon in a $30 billion deal | October beat expectations, but the forecast hasn’t improved |

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Today's big stories

  1. Biotech giant Amgen announced it’s buying Horizon Therapeutics
  2. Here's why prices might finally drop next year – Read Now
  3. The UK’s strong October didn’t brighten its dark outlook

$30 Billion Drug Deal

$30 Billion Drug Deal

What’s Going On Here?

Biotech giant Amgen announced on Monday that it’s buying drugmaker Horizon Therapeutics in a deal worth almost $30 billion.

What Does This Mean?

Amgen just made a big move. The firm announced it’s buying Horizon for a staggering $26 billion, its biggest-ever deal, in a splurge that comes hot on the heels of the near $4 billion acquisition of ChemoCentryx earlier this year. No wonder it’s making moves: stiff competition and an upcoming patent expiry have hit Amgen’s top-selling arthritis drug for four straight quarters, and this acquisition will help the firm replenish its offerings with a crop of popular approved drugs. Case in point: the deal will see Amgen bulk up its portfolio with the eye disease treatment Tepezza, a drug that’s already a tidy money-maker.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Pharma feeding time.
Horizon’s shares were down 27% earlier this year, which is probably a key reason that other pharma companies, including Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson, started sizing the firm up in the first place. No surprise: the biotech sector entered its biggest selloff since the early 2000s this year, and that led analysts to predict that drugmakers with deep pockets would snap up rivals and replenish their product pipelines. And they weren't far off: other standout deals include Johnson & Johnson's $17 billion acquisition of Abiomed last month and Pfizer's $12 billion purchase of Biohaven Pharmaceuticals in May.

The bigger picture: Festive shopping spree.
This week’s been a busy one for dealmakers, with firms rushing to get contracts signed and initialed before the holiday season kicks into gear. So far, Thoma Bravo’s announced an $8 billion takeover of spending-management platform Coupa, Novozymes has said it’s buying fellow enzyme-maker Chr. Hansen for around $12 billion, and Microsoft’s bitten off a $2 billion chunk of the London Stock Exchange. That’s a fat $70 billion in deals this week alone – not bad considering overall dealmaking’s down by a third this year (tweet this).

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Analyst Take

This Year Was A Scorcher, Inflation-Wise. What Will 2023 Be Like?

This Year Was A Scorcher, Inflation-Wise. What Will 2023 Be Like?

By Luke Suddards, Analyst

2022 has been the year of red-hot inflation

In the US it hit a wallet-melting 9.1% in June, a level not seen in over 40 years. And ever since then, price pressures have been sliding lower

Many (myself included) now believe we’ve seen peak inflation – and that 2023 will be the year of significant disinflation, with price pressures falling back down to between the 3 and 4% mark. 

That’s today’s Insight: we’re looking at the four factors that’ll drive the cooldown in inflation.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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No Fall In Fall After All

No Fall In Fall After All

What’s Going On Here?

Data out on Monday showed the British economy bounced back in October.

What Does This Mean?

Britain’s economy was unsteady on its feet when September began, and the double-blow of the late Queen’s funeral and a period of national mourning left the country totally out for the count. But the economy returned to growth in October, with consumer-facing services like hospitality springing back after two months on the slide. And as the weather cooled, some Brits helped the health sector by lapping up more vaccinations and Covid tests, while others buoyed up travel and headed for faraway hills. In fact, there was good news across the board, with output across services, manufacturing, and construction all improving. That meant the economy grew 0.5% from September to October, faster than the 0.4% economists were expecting.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Three strikes, you’re out.
Still, compare the three months through October to the previous three-month period, and you’ll find that the economy actually shrank 0.3%. And the situation might be about to get even worse: after all, inflation’s still emptying households’ coffers, and healthcare, rail, and postal workers are all set to strike this month – meaning Britain’s poised for industrial disruption on a scale it hasn’t seen since the '80s. No wonder some experts think the economy’s destined to shrink this quarter.

The bigger picture: Hikes will hurt.
That dire outlook could make things even harder for the Bank of England, which'll be adding another rate hike to its ongoing anti-inflation crusade later this week. After all, it predicted last month that even without hikes, the economy will shrink in five of the next six quarters, until the end of 2023. So while investors generally think the central bank will steer a milder course and announce a hike of 0.5 percentage points this time around, the country’s probably in for a bruising whatever happens.

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💬 Quote of the day

“The brain is a wonderful organ. It starts working the moment you get up in the morning and does not stop until you get into the office.”

– Robert Frost (an American poet)
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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up This Week…

All events in UK time.

✍️ How To Protect Your Crypto In 2023: 11am, December 14th
🧠 Three Behavioral Biases To Avoid When Investing: 5pm, December 14th
🇺🇸 How To Prepare For What’s Next For The US Economy: 1pm, December 15th
🥂 The Best Luxury Stocks To Buy In 2023: 5pm, December 15th
🎙 Live Q&A With Finimize CEO Max Rofagha: 12pm, December 16th

👀 And After That…

🌪 Preparing Your Strategy for A Volatile 2023 and Beyond: 12pm, January 11th
📑 The Risks And Regulations When Investing In Crypto: 10am, January 27th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Monkey business. IKEA’s famous simian is still thriving ten years later.
  2. Now that’s a long-term forecast. Here’s how the world might look if humans are around in a million years.
  3. Goodbye, stomach rumblings. Simple, quick work-from-home meals to stop you skipping lunch.
  4. Ugly mugs. This is why we make snap judgments about folk based on their faces.
  5. Chronically online. The internet’s full of uniquely, hilariously silly opinions.
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