Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The Sphinx, Kees van Dongen, 1920

The first returns for fan voting for NBA All-Star starters have been released. There are no Andrew Wiggins/Zaza Pachulia situations in play so far. (It feels really unfair to put those two guys in the same sentence, but alas.) I feel like we have a very strong read on eight of the 10 eventual selections, and I don’t expect media and players’ voting to counter those.

NBA Communications @NBAPR

LeBron James and Kevin Durant lead their respective conferences in the first fan returns of #NBAAllStar Voting presented by AT&T. Fans account for 50% of the vote to decide All-Star starters. NBA players and a media panel account for 25% each. The next fan update is Jan. 12.

6:00 PM ∙ Jan 5, 2023

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LeBron James isn’t the most deserving West frontcourt player, but he’s definitely going to finish No. 1 in the fan vote and once you get past Nikola Jokic (No. 2 in fan vote in the category, definitely going to be No. 1 in media vote and Nos. 1 or 2 in player vote), there are a slew of obvious answers for media voters to put above LeBron. So LeBron and Jokic are almost certainly going to be two of the three West frontcourt starters.

Steph Curry and Luka Doncic have commanding leads for the pair of West backcourt slots, with more than twice as many votes as for No. 3 Ja Morant. I think both will be high enough in the media and player vote (Luka possibly sweeping them) to easily clinch the starter spots. So there are four spots basically already locked in.

In the East backcourt, Kyrie Irving is leading the fan vote by a solid margin. This is an interesting one because I think he’ll win or finish no lower than No. 2 in the player vote (most players love Kyrie, especially when not on the same team as him) and I think he will be no higher than No. 3 in the media vote. The thing is that the media vote tends to herd around a few guys. For example, if zero media votes select Kyrie and split their votes between Donovan Mitchell, Jaylen Brown and James Harden, then Kyrie finishes tied for fourth in the media vote, and that doesn’t drag down his high finishes in fan and players voting. Here’s the hypothetical math:

Kyrie: 1st in fan vote (50%), 2nd in player, 4th in media: 2.0
Mitchell: 2nd in fan vote, 1st in player, 1st in media: 1.5
Brown: 3rd in fan vote, 3rd in player, 2nd in media: 2.75
Harden: 4th in fan vote, 4th in player, 3rd in media: 3.75

It’s very hard to find math that will eliminate a contender who finishes first in the fan vote and high enough in the player vote because media voters aren’t going to drop someone to 8th or 9th because there are not eight or nine defensible contenders.

So anyway, Kyrie and Mitchell are almost assuredly going to be your East backcourt starters unless Harden or Brown gain on them in the fan vote, which I suspect will be difficult. My picks would be Mitchell and Brown.

In the East frontcourt, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo have commanding leads for the top two spots and will certainly rate high enough (probably 1-2 in some order) in the player and media vote to claim their spots. KD is actually only about 50,000 votes behind LeBron for the honor of becoming the top overall vote getter.

So let’s talk about the last two spots, which are relatively up in the air based both on continued fan voting and how the player and media vote lines up: No. 3 in the West frontcourt between Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson and No. 3 in the East frontcourt between Joel Embiid and Jayson Tatum.

In the West, AD leads Zion by less than 100,000 votes, so this could definitely swing. Both are currently out injured, but no one is close enough to catch them in fan voting. (Andrew Wiggins is actually No. 5. And also out injured.) Zion has played 29 games and Davis has played 25. There’s no timetable for AD; Zion could return before the end of the month, when the media and players vote happens. Based on 2019-20 and 2020-21 voting, I would say that AD is pretty highly rated by players and media. In the only season in which he was a realistic option (2020-21), Zion was not: that year he finished 6th in fan vote, 8th in player vote and without any support in the media vote (so he tied for 8th as seven players received votes). I actually think the media vote here will keep Jokic and LeBron at the top then move to options like Lauri Markkanen and perhaps Domantas Sabonis before nodding at Zion and AD if those two don’t add any more games played. Personally, I’d probably slot Zion in there at No. 2 or 3 behind Jokic, then LeBron, then AD. I think the player vote is pretty uncertain, though — Lauri nor Sabonis are getting above AD there, and probably not above Zion — so I’m going to predict Davis gets the nod while I think Zion is the more deserving choice.

In the East frontcourt, Joel Embiid leads Jayson Tatum by about 50,000 votes. This is the third straight year those two are in the mix right there, though last season Embiid ended up with a massive lead over Tatum in the fan vote (remember, this is about the time that Celtics perked up after a bad start) and the media vote was unanimous for Durant, Giannis and Embiid. The player vote is something to watch for here. Somewhat bizarrely Tatum finished below not just KD, Giannis and Embiid last season, but also behind Miles Bridges and Jarrett Allen. In 2020-21 when Tatum finished closer but still behind Embiid in the fan vote and received one media vote at the expense of either KD or Embiid, Tatum finished a distant fifth in player voting behind the triumvirate and Bam Adebayo.

The effects here are two-fold. First, there’s no evidence that if Tatum loses the fan vote for No. 3 to Embiid that he can make it up on player or media voting. He has consistently finished much lower than Embiid in those categories. Second, there’s a chance that if Tatum does beat Embiid in fan vote that there’s some weird player voting around Tatum that drops him low enough to still lose the starting slot. Here’s a hypothetical in which KD and Giannis sweep the top two in every category:

Tatum: 3rd in fan vote, 5th in player vote, 4th in media vote: 3.75
Embiid: 4th in fan vote, 3rd in player vote, 3rd in media vote: 3.5

In that example, Tatum beats Embiid in the fan vote and still loses the starting slot. The saving grace for Tatum is that there really aren’t credible contenders after the top four to win player votes. But again, Miles Bridges beat him in the player vote last year. Player votes are WEIRD. One other twist is that I think there’s a wee bit of media exhaustion of Embiid and I think Tatum’s status in the tippy top tier was solidified by their Finals run. So Tatum could very well beat Embiid in the media vote, which would moderate any weirdness in the player vote.

All that said, I think Embiid will actually hold on for the fan vote, making him the starter and this all moot.

I should note that the real problem in both conferences this season is that the available slots and the contenders’ positions are not matched. In the West there should be four starting guards (Luka, Steph, Ja and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and one frontcourt player (Jokic). In the East there should be four frontcourt players (KD, Giannis, Embiid and Tatum) and one guard (Mitchell). That’d be a helluva match-up.

Scores

Grizzlies 123, Magic 115

Celtics 124, Mavericks 95 — Dominant two-way performance for Boston. They didn’t exactly keep Luka Doncic quiet, they just built a big enough lead that kept Luka on the bench for a lengthy garbage time.

Jazz 131, Rockets 114 — New career high 49 for Lauri Markkanen.

Clippers 91, Nuggets 122 — As the great Bomani Jones would say, “BEAT EM DOWN.” Denver lead by 16 after one and as many as 37 in the second quarter. Biggest lead: 43. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined for 9 points on 3/16 shooting, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in 32 minutes. A shockingly bad effort.

Mike Malone played his whole damn rotation to rest guys so I’ll just share this “Air” Vlatko Cancar highlight dunk and get out of the way. In the holy name of James Worthy!

NBA @NBA

VLATKO CANCAR THROWS IT DOWN 😱 NUGGETS LEAD ON TNT

3:41 AM ∙ Jan 6, 2023

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Schedule

All times Eastern.

FRIDAY
Blazers at Pistons, 7
Bulls at Sixers, 7
Knicks at Raptors, 7:30
Nets at Pelicans, 7:30, ESPN
Hornets at Bucks, 8
Wizards at Thunder, 8
Pistons at Spurs, 8
Clippers at Timberwolves, 9
Cavaliers at Nuggets, 9
Heat at Suns, 10, ESPN
Hawks at Lakers, 10:30

SATURDAY
Celtics at Spurs, 6
Jazz at Bulls, 8
Pelicans at Mavericks, 8
Magic at Warriors, 8:30
Lakers at Kings, 10

SUNDAY
Sixers at Pistons, 3
Blazers at Raptors, 3:30
Hornets at Pacers, 5
Nets at Heat, 6
Jazz at Grizzlies, 6
Timberwolves at Rockets, 7
Mavericks at Thunder, 7
Cavaliers at Suns, 8
Hawks at Clippers, 9

And Finally

New Orleans Pelicans @PelicansNBA

2:20 AM ∙ Jan 6, 2023

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Be excellent to each other.