The Conversation - What a smaller China means

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Throughout all our lifetimes – no matter your age – the world’s most populous country has been China. Indeed, it has been that way for the best part of the last two millennia.

It is, therefore, fairly big news that sometime in 2023 that will no longer be the case. For the first time in more than 60 years, more people died in China than were born in 2022, putting it on a course that will see India steal its crown as the most populous nation within months.

But just because news is historic doesn’t make it unexpected. Demographers like Feng Wang of University of California, Irvine have long predicted this day – just not quite this early. Wang explains that the writing has been on the great wall since the early 1990s, when fertility rates first fell below the level needed to sustain population levels. And now that it has started, the pivot to a declining population is set to continue.

Wang writes that an aging, shrinking population will have “huge symbolic and substantive impacts” on China, especially its economy. But demographic change will also reshape society, placing burdens not just on younger working-age citizens but also testing the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to provide for its aging population.

Also today:

Matt Williams

Senior Breaking News and International Editor

Will an aging, shrinking population put the brakes on economic growth? CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images.

Why China’s shrinking population is a big deal – counting the social, economic and political costs of an aging, smaller society

Feng Wang, University of California, Irvine

For the first time since 1961, deaths in China have outpaced births – and unlike that one-year decline, the downward trend is likely to continue.

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