Market Loop - Davos returns

January 17, 2023 | Read Online

Good morning. Breaking news out of China this morning: the country's population has fallen for the first time in 60 years. It's a historic turn for the world’s most populous nation that is now expected to see a long period of population decline with India set to takeover in the not too distant future.

Big Stories

Davos returns

After two years of Covid disruption, the World Economic Forum returned yesterday in the small ski resort town of Davos, Switzerland, hosting hundreds of political leaders, CEOs and global financiers.

On the first day senior economist attendees presented an early, gloomy outlook for the 2023 world economy, with a survey revealing that 18% of respondents viewed a global recession this year as "extremely likely" – more than twice as many than during a prior survey last September – while only a third of respondents viewed the probably of recession as unlikely.

Davos has traditionally been a forum to promote globalisation, but after a pandemic, European war and surging inflation much of the Western world is looking for ways to reduce dependence on relatively fragile global supply chains and boost domestic production of key goods so the purpose of the meeting may soon need a rethink.

Sainsburys partners with Just Eat

The UK’s second biggest supermarket has joined forces with takeaway app Just Eat to offer grocery deliveries in less than 30 minutes. The partnership starts next month with up to 3,000 items available for distribution from 175 stores in London, Edinburgh and Bristol, with plans to expand further later in the year. Sainsbury's joins Tesco, Asda and Morrisons in partnering with Just Eat, in the rapidly growing rapid delivery market which boomed during the pandemic.

M&S backs bricks and mortar

Yesterday the high street chain announced plans to invest £480m opening 20 new shops across the UK creating 3,400 jobs. M&S says it wants to open “bigger, better stores” with the expansion coming at a time when many rivals are retreating from physical stores in favour of online retail. The news comes one week after the company emerged as a Christmas trading winner with food sales up 6.3% in the 13 weeks to 31 December, while it saw clothing and home comparable store sales rise 8.6% over the period.

Rich getting richer says Oxfam

A new report by the global poverty charity said since 2020, the richest 1% of people have gained close to two-thirds of all new wealth created around the world. Oxfam says $26tn of new wealth created since start of pandemic went to richest which has widened inequality. The organisation said a 5% tax on multi-millionaires and billionaires could raise $1.7tr a year, enough to lift 2bn people out of poverty.

Elsewhere...

On the rise: The average house price coming to the market for sale has jumped £3,300 to £362,438 this January after two months of falls according to Rightmove.

Mini budget aftermath: The governor of the Bank of England has told MPs there is still "something of a hangover effect" in the wake of the mini-budget market chaos last year but declared that the hit to mortgages was over.

Let the games begin: The Olympics will remain on the BBC until at least 2032 after a new deal with rights holders that guarantees wider free-to-air coverage by broadcasters across Europe.

Culture shift: Banking app Revolut is putting together a behavioural team as it seeks to address an "aggressive" corporate culture.

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Fact Of The Day

The failure rate for New Year's resolutions is said to be an estimated 80% with most people losing their resolve and motivation by mid-February.

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