Finimize - 🧸 The IMF said to start behaving

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Today's big stories

The International Monetary Fund warned that geopolitical tensions could spell trouble for the global economy
Blackstone’s spotted ten big surprises that could crop up this year – Read Now
UK house prices jumped in January, but that probably won't be the start of a new trend

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What’s Going On Here?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Sunday that the global economy could end up 7% worse off if countries don’t start cooperating.

What Does This Mean?

China was admitted to the World Trade Organization back in 2001, and ever since, the Red Dragon’s role as “the world's factory” has been a boon to companies all over the world. China’s benefited too, of course: after all, that huge influx of foreign cash triggered a rapid growth spurt that’s only recently started to slow. But things have taken a turn for the worse lately, and that golden era of globalization seems to be behind us. With international tensions at a steady simmer, countries are now looking closer to home for everything from raw materials to technological know-how – something that the IMF is convinced will hurt us all.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: My fair “Made In”.
It's no coincidence that China's arrival on the global goods trading stage coincided with a long spell of disinflation, when the price of goods barely budged. The country's seemingly endless supply of cheap labor meant that firms in richer nations could outsource manufacturing, juicing up their profit margins without needing to raise prices an inch. But now that global politics have got a lot less friendly, you might see fewer goods stamped "Made in China" on the shelf: instead, expect some more expensive products marked "Made in America, Britain, France, or Germany". That’s not likely to go down well with the world’s inflation-pinched consumers…

The bigger picture: Profit over politics.
Businesses have some tough customers to please, day in, day out: their shareholders. And if firms want to keep them onside, they’ll need to deliver consistently swelling sales and impressive profit margins. That can involve ditching home-turf help for cheaper global supply networks – so while politicians might go crazy for hawkish foreign policy and self-contained strategies, multinational companies are more likely to want friends in faraway places.

You might also like: It’s a big wide world: here’s where your fellow Finimizers are investing now.

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Analyst Take

A Market Bottom By Midyear And Nine Other Surprises Blackstone Sees For 2023

By Russell Burns, Analyst

Blackstone’s strategists don’t like to be caught off guard.

So every January since 1986, they’ve put together a list of “ten surprises” that could shake up markets in the year ahead.

But to qualify as an actual surprise, each one’s got to meet the team’s list of criteria.

So that’s today’s Insight: Blackstones’s ten surprises for this year – and how to play each one, in case it happens.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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