It’s a fact still impossible to wrap one's head around, but with more than half the season gone, the Bundesliga has the most competitive title race in any of Europe’s 5 major top flights.

Just one point separates second-place Union Berlin from vaulting to the top of the table, and leaders FC Bayern only have a 5-point advantage on Eintracht Frankfurt all the way down in 6th place. 

With fine margins separating a measly Europa League finish and the ecstasy of lifting the Meisterschale, I wanted to take an in-depth look at all 6(!) clubs gunning for the title, detailing precisely why they have what it takes to become champion, and where they could potentially fall short. 

Who do you believe will end the season with Meisterschale in hand? Let me know on the German Football Newsletter’s private Substack channel!

FC Bayern

Why they will win the League

The current league leaders have earned the nickname Der Rekordmeister (the record champion) for good reason.

FC Bayern have finished top in 31 of 59 Bundesliga seasons, and it's been over a decade since the Meisterschale last left the Allianz Arena. 

That Julian Nagelsmann’s side have struggled for form this season is no secret, but it's precisely the fact that they are still top of the table despite playing far from their limit which should give fans a sense of reassurance. 

The squad is deep enough to provide cover across 3 competitions, and injuries have been expertly addressed in the winter by signing, arguably, the best goalkeeper in the Bundesliga, and the most complete fullback in world football. 

OptaFranz @OptaFranz

8 - Since the start of last season, João #Cancelo has been directly involved in eight goals in the Champions League (2 goals, 6 assists), more than any other defender in this time. Vitalizing. #DeadlineDay

11:37 AM ∙ Jan 31, 2023

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Even the difficult round of 16 draw in the Champions League could prove itself as a blessing in disguise for the club’s Bundesliga form. 

Nagelsmann’s Bayern tenure could come to an end if Messi & co. run rampant, but dropping out of Europe would allow even more resources to be spent on ensuring that the Meisterschale stays put for another year. 

Why they will come up short

Having the most talented squad in the Bundesliga doesn’t count for anything if the personnel isn’t managed properly.

Too often this season, we’ve seen status take priority over performance. 

Joshua Kimmich remains untouchable in midfield, and Thomas Müller has started more than 70% of the league matches he’s been deemed fit for, despite struggling for form all season.   

With Ryan Gravenberch still yet to start a match in the Bundesliga, and the young goal-scoring machine Mathys Tel not even mustering 200 topflight minutes, it’s hard to make an argument that Nagelsmann is truly getting the most out of the abundance of talent at his disposal. 

According to The Atheltic, Bayern’s 35-year-old head coach has addressed unrest within the squad by simplifying both his tactics and training sessions since the World Cup, but these smart adaptations don’t take away from the fact that the table doesn’t lie. While Bayern still sits top of the pile, a quick glance at past seasons shows that Der Rekordmeister is in a historically vulnerable state.

In the past decade of dominance, FC Bayern have had fewer points after 18 matchdays on only one occasion, and the last time they’ve failed to win 8 of their first 18 fixtures was all the way back in 2010/11 - a year in which the Bavarian outfit finished third in the table, and 10 points off top spot.

Union Berlin

Why they will win the League

That Union sit in a prime position to qualify for the Champions League is already a miracle, but even this dream affair is overshadowed by the true prospects of displacing FC Bayern to become the most uncanny league winner in Bundesliga history. 

Their wage bill, and general financial backing, aren’t comparable to any other team in the running, but it is precisely this outsider nature that gives Union a healthy chance of upsetting the odds in the remaining 16 matchdays. 

The roster is small and unremarkable, but each individual plays their part in forming a collective that far outweighs the sum of its parts.

And, given Urs Fischer’s uncanny ability to keep his entire squad engaged, every member of the roster is capable of either quickly slipping into a starring role when another player falls away or providing a game-changing impact off the bench to tip a match in Union’s favor. 

Why they will come up short

Union Berlin seems to have found their most complete image since arriving in the Bundesliga 3 years ago. But, whether Urs Fischer’s side really has the quality to sustain this run of form is cause for debate. 

Particularly the underlying numbers highlight a side on an unconventional run of form, rather than one capable of permanently cementing its status as a title contender in the Bundesliga. 

Using numbers from Understat.com, Union Berlin are estimated to have scored 11 more goals, and collected 10 more points than their underlying numbers would suggest. Amongst all 92 clubs in Europe’s top 5 leagues, only FC Lorient are overperforming the expected points model by a larger margin. 

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RB Leipzig

Why they will win the League

It’s hard to find a team in all of Europe who are in better form than RB Leipzig. 

In the major 5 leagues, only SSC Napoli, FC Barcelona, and FC Arsenal have taken more points from their last 10 league matches, and Leipzig’s mid-week Pokal victory over TSG Hoffenheim was the 17th match without defeat in a row. 

RB Leipzig English @RBLeipzig_EN

𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐧 games unbeaten! 📈

8:44 PM ∙ Feb 1, 2023

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This remarkable rise of form has gone hand-in-hand with the appointment of Marco Rose, returning the club to its traditional roots of counter-attacking and intense pressing. Rose is getting the most out of his former Salzburg prodigy Dominik Szoboszlai - the Hungarian international has 4 goals and 9 assists under Rose this season - and he has crucially developed an attacking match plan that is no longer reliant on MVP Christopher Nkunku. 

The Frenchman had a direct hand in 48% of Leipzig’s Bundesliga goals last season, and while he remains the key man when fit, there is no longer a reliance on his form to carry the attacking burden. 

In the 5 matches he has been injured for Leipzig have won four times and drawn once, scoring 16 goals in the process. 

Why they will come up short

RB Leipzig are historically a side that falls short in the latter half of the season.

Since their foundation in 2009, Leipzig have played 8 campaigns in the top two tiers of German football, and 6 of them have ended with the club picking up substantially more points in the hinründe (the first half of the season) than the rückrunde (the second half of the season).

This particularly doesn’t bode well against their main competitor FC Bayern, a side renowned for routinely growing into their strongest self in the latter stages of the campaign. 

And, speaking of Bayern, the Bavarian outfit has proven to be an Achilles heel for Leipzig.

In 16 encounters Leipzig has only won once, with that solitary victory coming all the way back in 2018. 

A one-off fixture shouldn’t hold too much weight across a 34-game campaign, but given that the two face off on the penultimate match week, these fine margins could ultimately be the difference between Leipzig lifting the Meisterschale, and trying their luck again next year. 

Borussia Dortmund

Why they will win the League

Like Bayern, Borussia Dortmund have the talent to beat any side in this league. 

They have the Bundesliga’s most valuable player dominating midfield, a World Cup winner enjoying a resurrection of form in central defense, and an over-supply of attacking stars who are each uniquely capable of winning a football match. 

Even the problem area of fullback has been addressed this January with the signing of Julian Ryerson. The 25-year-old Norwegian adds more stability and balance to either flank of Dortmund’s backline. 

Probably the biggest issue holding Dortmund back at the start of the season was their attack, but this too looks to have been addressed since the winter break. 

Since the Bundesliga returned in the middle of January, Dortmund have played 3 matches and scored 8 goals. 

An average of 2.6 goals per game, it’s almost exactly 1 extra goal than what Die Schwarz-Gelben mustered in their first 16 matchdays of the season. What on paper looks like a small addition could actually have an astronomic impact on BVB’s season. 

Had they scored 1 extra goal in the 16 Bundesliga matches they contested before the World Cup, Dortmund would now have 4 extra points to their name and be clear at the top of the table. 

Why they will come up short

A perfect start to 2023 may have allowed Dortmund to sneak back into the title race, but there are still countless flaws in Edin Terzic’s system that make it hard to consider BVB a true title prospect. 

The defense is flawed, nobody in the front line is a reliable source of goals, and the midfield’s performance is often contingent on Jude Bellingham’s ability to carry a colossal load. 

All three factors are reflected in Dortmund’s sub-optimal goal difference, a measly +8 at the time of writing. 

It’s a fraction of what Bayern have managed in the same number of matches this season and the club’s worst return since matchday 18 of the 2014/15 campaign when Dortmund were temporarily bottom of the table. 

SC Freiburg

Why they will win the League

No side in the 2022-23 Bundesliga season has a level of continuity that can rival SC Freiburg.

Since 2011 Christian Streich has been managing the side - the longest managerial tenure in Europe’s top 10 leagues - and for more than a decade now he has turned a struggling yo-yo club into a staple of the topflight. It hasn’t been without its ups and downs, but the club’s preference for developing talent rather than spending large on the transfer market has been key to forging long-lasting success. 

In total, 12 players in the Freiburg roster have spent at least 5 seasons in the first team. It’s, by some margin, the most any club in the topflight can muster, and it’s proven a massive advantage when it comes to overcoming the types of obstacles a side of Freiburg’s stature inevitably face across a season. 

Streich’s side can't allow themselves any more big setbacks if they still want to play a role in this season’s title race, but the upcoming fixture list definitely plays in their favor.

They only have one opponent from the top 6 in their next 8 Bundesliga outings, and after topping their Europa League group in November, Freiburg earned an automatic bye to the round of 16. 

It means that they - unlike every other side profiled today - won’t need to contend with any European football until mid-March.

Why they will come up short

Regardless of the unique qualities which set Freiburg apart, they - like Union Berlin - are probably already scraping the upper limit of what they are capable of. 

A quick glance at their performance against the current top 7 in the Bundesliga sheds light on potential shortcomings. 

In 6 matches, Freiburg won only once, ending this run-in with 7 goals scored and 19 conceded. 

The squad depth is also an issue that could have a serious impact should Freiburg end up playing up to 27 games in the remaining 4 months of the season.  

With 26 players, Freiburg have the second smallest roster in the Bundesliga, and 10 individuals in Streich’s squad have featured in at least 17 of the 18 topflight matches. Should a handful of these key stars fall out for an extended period, it’s impossible to imagine Freiburg continuing to perform at such a high level. 

Eintracht Frankfurt

Why they will win the League

If recent history has taught us anything, you can never write Eintracht Frankfurt off from turning unthinkable into reality.

In 2018 - just over a year after narrowly escaping relegation to the second Bundesliga - Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Bayern in the DFB Pokal final to collect the club’s first major silverware for more than 30 years.

The following season, Frankfurt again turned a blind eye to convention. They made it within a penalty shoot-out of qualifying for the Europa League final in Baku, a heart-breaking exit, but one whose wounds finally healed last May.

In the sun-soaked Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan Stadium in Seville, Die Adler finally got their hands on a European title. This season, they’ve continued to raise eyebrows across the continent by qualifying for the knockout stages in what is the club’s very first Champions League campaign.

If there was ever a club not only capable of upsetting the big-wigs, but also going the distance, it’s Eintracht Frankfurt. 

Why they will come up short

Eintracht Frankfurt have proven over the last 12 months that they have the talent to beat anybody in world football. However, Oliver Glasner’s side are still yet to develop a level of consistency that is crucial for going the distance in a long league campaign. 

Since the start of 2022, Eintracht Frankfurt have contested 35 Bundesliga matches without ever managing to win 3 league matches in a row. In the same period, FC Bayern have gone on a 6-match winning streak, Borussia Dortmund, Union Berlin, and RB Leipzig a 4-match winning streak, and even SC Freiburg have managed multiple 3-match winning streaks.

Often the Frankfurt attack has enough talent to remain impactful through the onslaught of European and domestic fixtures, but the same can not be said for the defense.

Of the top 7 sides in the Bundesliga, nobody has conceded more goals than Eintracht Frankfurt, and Die Adler were even the only side that progressed out of the UCL groupstage with a negative goal difference.