Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The job market won’t quit

The US job market just won’t quit. While that’s a sign of underlying strength for the economy and great news for American workers, it’s also a possible pitfall if wage gains don’t continue to ease. Hiring surged in January and the jobless rate fell to a landmark 53-year low, potentially bolstering the Federal Reserve’s argument that more interest-rate hikes are needed to finish off inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed a growing number of economic experts when he expressed optimism that policymakers can pull off a soft landing, avoiding a downturn by quelling price rises without pushing millions out of work. That seems to be the sentiment elsewhere, too. Along with the Fed, the European Central Bank hiked rates this week in its quest to pull inflation back to its 2% target. But there’s a wild card when it comes to global inflation: China. The abrupt reopening of the world’s second-largest economy from Covid lockdowns is set to provide a boost to global growth, albeit at a catastrophic cost in Chinese lives lost. And the sudden rise in consumer demand could trigger price jumps on commodities like oil and gas, putting upward pressure on inflation again. 

Gautam Adani had a really bad week. The Indian billionaire’s businesses lost $108 billion in one of the biggest wipeouts in history. He was forced to pull a stock sale at the 11th hour, and the meltdown has shaken at least 200 funds—including BlackRock—that own the group’s $8 billion dollar bonds. The fallout from the Hindenburg short-seller report is shaking investor faith not only in India but, more broadly, in “emerging markets, which have been seeing near-record inflows,” Shuli Ren writes in Bloomberg Opinion.

A Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine appears imminent as Kyiv prepares for its own fresh attack in the south. With the one year anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s war approaching, more former Soviet states are moving away from the Kremlin. Georgia says any eventual peace deal in Ukraine must require Russia end its almost 15-year occupation of two of the nation’s regions. Other countries in central Asia are looking for ways to reduce their dependence on Moscow as well. And inside Russia, Putin’s botched invasion has set the stage for decades of economic damage, destroying 50 years of efforts to build an energy market in Europe, Julian Lee writes in Bloomberg Opinion. “It’s unlikely that EU countries will ever allow themselves, or need, to be as dependent on Russian gas as they were just a year ago,” he warns.

A Ukrainian soldier at his post outside Kherson on Feb. 2. Photographer: Genya Savilov/Getty Images

A Chinese surveillance balloon lingering at high altitude over Montana caused US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to put off his upcoming trip to Beijing, adding a new layer of tension between the two countries. The US said it chose not to destroy the balloon for fear of hurting people on the ground, and because it’s unlikely to provide Beijing anything it can’t get from satellites. China for its part claims the balloon, hovering over an area filled with vast fields of intercontinental ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads, is conducting climate research.

Goldman Sachs commodities traders reeled in one of their largest hauls ever last year, while oil giant Shell reported blockbuster earnings as consumers struggled to pay energy bills. In Alaska, climate activists are trying a new tactic against fossil fuels, encouraging President Joe Biden to approve ConocoPhillips’s proposed $8 billion oil development—but in such a scaled-back way that it no longer makes economic sense. For those forecasting a precipitous drop in fossil fuel demand by 2050, the “net zero models look increasingly at odds with short-term trends,” Javier Blass writes in Bloomberg Opinion. 

A record 13 homes in New York City’s borough of Brooklyn sold for at least $10 million last year, triple 2021’s total, brokerage Compass says. More buyers are being drawn (as has been the case for decades now) to the leafier brownstone neighborhoods of Brooklyn Heights and Cobble Hill. Northeast Florida has also logged eight-digit sales, as that state continues to see an inflow of new residents. For the first time ever, there are more jobs in Florida than New York. 

The living room at 88 Remsen Street in Brooklyn Heights, New York City.  Photographer: Stefano Ukmar

• Biden delivers his second  State of the Union address. 
• Powell speaks following the Fed rate decision.
• Adani Total Private CEO Satindar Pal Singh at India Energy Week.
• European Union bans most seaborne imports of Russian oil products.
• EU leaders meet to discuss Biden’s  Inflation Reduction Act.

Michael Platt made his first $1 billion charging hedge fund clients fees, but he ditched that angle years ago. Now armed with an $11.4 billion net worth, his BlueCrest Capital Management is generating annualized returns surpassing 60%. What makes Platt stand out in an industry known for windfalls is how he does it.

Michael Platt of BlueCrest Capital Management Photographer: 731/Bloomberg

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