Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - The ‘no landing’ economy

Bloomberg Weekend Reading

As US inflation receded over the past few months, some economists warned that the situation might get sticky—the kind where inflation seems to retreat only to gum up the works again. This week, that scenario seemed to arrive. While new data showed overall inflation still falling if only slightly, for January, consumer prices rose again, potentially a sign of a feared persistence that could push the Fed to raise rates for longer. Still, the overall economy remains robust, with more blowout job numbers and resilient spending (and skyrocketing credit card debt). Though the Fed’s timeline for snuffing out high prices is hard to predict, one thing may seem a bit clearer: Corporate profits appear to have peaked after a two-year bonanza, with some businesses retrenching. And while market observers continue to debate whether the US economy will manage a soft landing, enter a full downturn or maybe experience a series of “little recessions,” there may be a fourth option: the so-called “no landing” scenario. This fact pattern includes a strong economy, a muscular labor market—and inflation that won’t go away. “While the idea of not having to bring the plane in to land at all sounds positive at first blush,” John Authers writes in Bloomberg Opinion, “it would mean higher rates that would endanger equities and the credit market.”

What you’ll want to read this weekend

US President Joe Biden says he makes “no apologies” for shooting down a suspected Chinese spy balloon, though he expects to speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to reduce tensions. As for the other three unidentified flying objects the US downed in the past week, they don’t appear to be from China, Biden said. The suspicion is that they were for commercial purposes, the US said, and that aliens were not involved. 

A US sailor on Feb. 10 helping secure part of a Chinese high-altitude balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina. Source: Petty Officer 1st Class Ryan See/US Navy

Tesla is recalling 362,758 vehicles due to a crash risk associated with its so-called Full Self-Driving Beta software, according to US authorities. It was another blow to Elon Musk’s ambitions for autonomous driving, with a robotaxi teased as recently as December now arguably further from delivery. As for new cars actually meant to be driven by humans, they’re increasingly out of reach for the middle class. The average monthly payment has soared to $777, almost double that of late 2019. And used cars aren’t much better.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s accumulation of political power hampered rescue efforts after last week’s massive earthquakes, an opposition leader said, adding to intense criticism of his handling of the crisis as he seeks re-election this year. The pair of quakes decimated 10 provinces across southeast Turkey and northwest Syria, killing more than 40,000 people. The government has begun investigating and arresting contractors for shoddy building practices. The country needs an estimated 1 million new homes

A collapsed building in Hatay, Turkey, on Feb. 12 Photographer: David Lombeida/Bloomberg

Remote work may be here to stay. And it’s killing big offices and their ecosystems. The trend is most pronounced in New York, where workers are spending at least $12.4 billion less a year near their offices due to about 30% fewer days in them. For millennials, many in the middle of their professional careers, the extra savings might come in handy. A report shows that those born from 1981 to 1996 earn 20% less than baby boomers did at their age. Another survey found millennials age 28-38 had a lower net-wealth-to-income ratio than any previous generation.

A typical home on Miami’s super-exclusive Star Island is valued at $40 million, up from $23.5 million in December 2019, making it the most expensive neighborhood in America. While a broad real estate boom lifted prices across the US during the first two years of the pandemic, the Miami region saw its number of million-dollar ZIP codes more than double, reflecting the migration south of wealthy home-buyers (and in Star Island’s case, the relocation from Chicago of Ken Griffin, founder of hedge fund giant Citadel).  

A waterfront mansion on Star Island Photographer: Jeff Greenberg/Universal Images Group Editorial

What you’ll need to know next week

  • Presidents’ Day holiday in the US; financial markets are closed.
  • The one-year anniversary of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
  • Eurozone consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Nigeria GDP.
  • The Fed releases minutes from its last policy meeting.
  • South Africa presents its budget amid an energy crisis

The FTX Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal 

As the crypto exchange FTX imploded, founder Sam Bankman-Fried texted Gary Wang, his close confidante and the company’s ultimate secret-keeper. “We can make this work,” he wrote. But the Feds were closing in—and one was going to turn on the other. The pair had come along way together: From teenage mathletes to MIT frat brothers to crypto billionaires. But in the months since the exchange’s collapse, the two have offered dueling accounts of its demise—and who is ultimately to blame.

For nearly all their adult lives, Gary Wang (left) and Sam Bankman-Fried and traced an arc of mind-blowing success together. Source: FTX Blog via Wayback Machine Source: Twitter/@SBF_FTX


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Older messages

A Russian ‘dark fleet’

Friday, February 17, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg The bond market may have finally gotten the Federal Reserve's message on rates, but it seems most stock investors are continuing to ignore it.

Why quitting pays

Friday, February 17, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg Yet again, fresh data has shown the US economy's resilience seemingly knows no bounds, with robust demand keeping inflation elevated and heaping

Balloon tension

Friday, February 17, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg China escalated tensions over the shooting down of an alleged spy balloon, imposing fines and sanctions on two US defense companies. Lockheed Martin

Inflation’s slowing demise

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg US inflation is still slowing, but it isn't going away as quickly as many may have hoped. Consumer prices rose 0.5% in January, the most in

Dialing back the tension

Monday, February 13, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is said to be considering a meeting with Wang Yi, China's top diplomat, at a security conference later this

Inflation is the enemy

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and indicated there may be more hikes to come. In doing so, the Fed

🇬🇧 Britain got bruised

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

The Fed struck a compromise | Inflation dashed Brits' hopes | TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for March 23rd in 3:07 minutes. ⏱ Time slips by pretty easily – so you might

Issue #184: I can stop freaking out — my money is totally safe in the bank

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

plus the Squirrel Lady + Hugh Jackman's cinnamon rolls ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌ ͏‌

Great news for your next vacation

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Plus: Bill Gates' AI predictions, and using ChatGPT to start a business. View in browser Subscribe March 22, 2023 Hello, Insiders. This is Jennifer H. Cunningham, the editor in chief of

Wall Street: Hedge funds are the new banks

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

The latest in finance. View in browser INSIDER INSIDER Subscribe 10 THINGS ON WALL STREET Hi there! Dan DeFrancesco in NYC, and these stories of wild sex accidents from an ER doctor who treated them

❣️ JPMorgan’s bleeding heart

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

JPMorgan rushed to rescue First Republic | Amazon's still slimming down | TOGETHER WITH Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for March 22nd in 3:03 minutes. 🔮 ChatGPT's smart, but it can

Roaring back

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Bloomberg Evening Briefing View in browser Bloomberg Beleaguered First Republic Bank is refusing to be the fifth victim of the banking crisis, surging by a record and leading a rally in US lenders

5 things to Know about Social Security Even if You’re Not Collecting

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

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🤦🏼‍♀️ A Woke Bank Crash? (Smh.)

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Plus, $100K jobs, five years of Ellevest Impact Portfolios, and how to protect your data. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Ex-CIA officials say Bush ‘lied’

Tuesday, March 21, 2023

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