Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - No end in sight

Hours before the long overnight train trip from Poland, US officials said they notified Russia that President Joe Biden was about to depart for Kyiv, the unconquered capital of Ukraine. During his surprise visit, Biden triumphantly proclaimed: “Kyiv stands—and Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.” The event, a poke in Vladimir Putin’s eye, arguably summed up the state of the war one year after Russia’s invasion. An American president leading a coalition of nations aiding and arming Ukraine—soon with tanks and possibly US made fighter jets—spoke freely and walked unflinchingly in the Ukraine capital, even as air raid sirens blared. Russian troops, which neared Kyiv in the early days of the war, have since been pushed far back, suffering massive losses in the process. But Ukraine, Biden and its allies can declare nothing like victory. Amid signs more Russians support a war that’s killed tens of thousands, Putin this week delivered a defiant speech saying he won’t back down, and potentially in response to Biden’s trip, suspended Kremlin participation in one of the last functioning nuclear arms treaties.

US President Joe Biden, left, walks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky past a religious mural at the St. Michaels Golden-Domed Cathedral in Kyiv on Feb. 20. Photographer: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP

But if wars are won less on the battlefield and more by economic might, the West’s presumed advantage remains in doubt. While sanctions against Russia have inflicted damage, they haven’t induced Putin to stop fighting. Then there’s the issue of resolve: Ukraine’s allies are coming to terms with what will be required to support Kyiv though what may be a very long war. A conflict in which Putin’s generals repeatedly target civilians and his forces are regularly implicated in alleged war crimes. At home, though the Kremlin tightens its grip, the Russian people are lining up behind their leader. In the end, Leonid Bershidsky writes in Bloomberg Opinion, despite a year of death, atrocity and global brinkmanship, “Russia is incapable of delivering itself from its own self-inflicted misery.”

After buying a lot of stuff early in the pandemic, US and euro-area households are shifting spending priorities to experiences or services—and that’s a concern for central banks trying to tamp down stubborn inflation. Service consumption will fuel demand for workers—already in short supply in countries like the US and UK—and also wage growth. While more jobs with better pay is good news for both the employed and unemployed, its macro-economic effect can be less than pleasant. In Nashville, Tennessee, one restaurant is now paying $17 an hour for dishwashers, up from about $12 before the pandemic. That’s a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which wants to avoid the dreaded wage-price spiral at any cost.

Nigerians pick their next president this weekend, and the victor will inherit a fiscal crisis and soaring unemployment. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and the continent’s biggest crude oil producer, but because of a decrepit grid and little refining capacity, it relies almost entirely on imported fuel. Last year, 20 million children didn’t go to school and the country’s currency hit an all-time low. All three major candidates have vowed reforms, and young voters have a chance to shake up the election and replace the old guard. 

In the run-up to the election, Nigeria has had to contend with widespread shortages of both gasoline and currency notes. Photographer: John Wessels

Another food staple is in short supply because of the climate crisis and the war in Ukraine. While the costs of wheat and other grains have fallen in recent months, the price of onions is soaring, stoking inflation and forcing countries to protect supplies. Restrictions have extended to other vegetables and fruits, including carrots, tomatoes, potatoes and apples, limiting availability worldwide. Meanwhile, the spiking cost of fertilizers is still roiling food production and serves as a reminder that Russia and China control most of the world’s supplies. 

Apple is closing in on way to continuously monitor blood glucose without needing to prick the skin. The company is said to believe it could bring the technology to market. Microsoft’s new Bing AI ended a chat when asked how it felt about being a search engine. The chatbot, now in testing, is being tweaked following inappropriate interactions, including declarations of romantic interest of a human user.

It’s hard to put a ribbon on mortgage rates over 6% in the US—double where they were last year—but lenders are trying. Some are offering to buy down interest rates temporarily or will cover the costs of future refinancing. And while the market did shrink in value in the second half of last year, the total value of US houses in December was still 6.5% higher than a year earlier. For those homeowners who secured ultra-cheap 3% loans, they can now “invest essentially risk-free at 5% or more” in Treasuries, Conor Sen writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

• SpaceX Crew-6 mission set to head for the International Space Station. 
• National People’s Congress annual gathering in Beijing.
• Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House.
• US retailers, including Target, Lowe’s and Costco report earnings.
• Europe releases February inflation data; India GDP.   

While there’s still no magic pill for a long and healthy life, scientists are honing in on discoveries that may help humans live much longer, even well into their 100s. In the first episode of The Future With Hannah Fry, a new Bloomberg Originals series, renowned mathematician Hanna Fry explores the latest scientific research into aging, as well as the consequences of longevity, for people and society. 

On the first episode of Bloomberg’s The Future With Hannah Fry, Hannah Fry delves into the research, and conundrums, behind human longevity. Photographer: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Europe

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