🫵 What Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse means for you

Silicon Valley Bank breathed its last | US jobs beat expectations once again |

Hi Reader, here's what you need to know for March 13th in 3:10 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Silicon Valley Bank bit the dust
  2. Here’s how things went so very wrong at Silicon Valley Bank – Read Now
  3. US jobs beat expectations – for the eleventh time in a row

Byte The Bullet

Byte The Bullet

What’s Going On Here?

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed late last week.

What Does This Mean?

SVB is a heavyweight in the US startup arena, with almost half the country's venture-backed tech and life sciences startups among its clientele. But lately those businesses have been burning through cash reserves in order to stay afloat – and that means SVB’s once-brimming deposit pool evaporated to little more than a puddle. The bank responded to that problem with the bright idea of selling off some bonds to raise cash: problem is, SVB bought those bonds when tech was at its height, and their value’s plummeted as interest rates have climbed. The end result, then, was a sizable loss for SVB. That sparked worries the bank was running out of cash – sending shares plummeting – and when a share sale intended to fix the balance sheet failed, SVB wound up in regulators’ hands.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: A run for their money.
Even if it had somehow managed to raise the cash, the writing was probably already on the wall for SVB: the initial loss had spooked clients, with VC firms advising companies to consider withdrawing cash from the lender. And remember “It’s A Wonderful Life”? When anxious customers all try to pull their cash at the same time, you’ve got a classic bank run on your hands. All said, then, SVB’s wound up as the US’s second-biggest bank failure ever.

The bigger picture: Safety in size.
The whole debacle caused a ripple effect in finance, with the four biggest US banks collectively shedding over $50 billion in market value on Thursday. After all, the US banking industry has over $600 billion in so-called paper losses – ones that only materialize when sold, like SVB's bonds. But America's top banks aren't really expected to go belly up: proportionately, they’ve got a whole lot less bound up in similar, troublesome investments, and that means that they’re much safer.

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Analyst Take

Here’s What We Know About Silicon Valley Bank’s Swift And Stunning Collapse

Here’s What We Know About Silicon Valley Bank’s Swift And Stunning Collapse

By Paul Allison, Analyst

Let’s take a closer look at how Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) wound up as the second-biggest US bank failure in history. 

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed SVB’s doors after a dramatic few days that saw the bank’s startup-heavy customers rush to pull their deposits, as rumors swirled that the institution was struggling to meet the mounting cash calls.

It all happened so quickly, and seemingly so easily, that investors are rightly asking whether this sort of thing could happen to a bigger, more important US bank – or even a string of them. 

That’s today’s Insight: what you need to know now about Silicon Valley Bank

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Painfully Employed

Painfully Employed

What’s Going On Here?

Friday’s job data showed the US economy added more jobs than expected last month.

What Does This Mean?

For a while the Federal Reserve (the Fed) put the kibosh on the kind of jumbo rate hikes that we witnessed last year – but Friday’s data will have the central bank on high alert once again. See, the Fed said last week that a return to a more aggressive stance was already in the cards, with the heaving labor market singled out as one key culprit – and Friday’s hot-to-touch jobs report only served to confirm the central bank’s worst fears. The US added 311,000 jobs last month, marking an eleven-month streak of outstripped expectations. And while average earnings grew less than expected (good news for inflation), wages for non-management positions – most roles, in other words – had their biggest gain in three months.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Up in the air.
The Fed will be scrutinizing the inflation and retail sales data due out this week, but this jobs leap has some economists convinced that a 0.5-percentage-point hike is already a done deal. Still, with a few factors muddying the waters, that’s not guaranteed: for one, more folk are returning to the workforce these days, which should ease supply shortages and help keep a lid on wages. And for another, the layoff era’s not going anywhere: in fact, the length of the average workweek just fell – a key omen, given that employers tend to cut hours first, staff second.

Zooming out: Keeping calm, carrying on.
The UK's not going down without a fight either. Data out on Friday showed the economy grew at an impressive 0.3% in January – three times faster than expected. That growth was mainly powered by services, with especially strong performances by education and entertainment. But while that might push aside recession fears for now, areas like manufacturing and construction still shrank – meaning the deeper problems haven’t disappeared.

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ANALYST TAKE

This Trade Is Wildly Popular Now, And It Could Be A Huge Problem

Analysts at JPMorgan have just flagged a potential new risk in markets – and it’s one you’re going to want to pay attention to. 

It has to do with the record rise in 0DTE, or “zero days to expiry”, options trading – and if these analysts are right, it could turn a 5% intraday stocks drop into a 25% catastrophic plunge. 

That’s today’s Insight: why 0DTEs are a worry for stocks and what you can do to protect your portfolio.

Read or listen to the Insight here

💬 Quote of the day

“When did the future switch from being a promise to being a threat?”

– Chuck Palahniuk (an American novelist)
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