Earnings+More - Weekend Edition #90
Weekend Edition #90Caesars’ digital bridge, F1 could be a Las Vegas fixture, Bally’s headcount, sector watch – crypto trading +MoreGood morning and welcome to the latest weekender. On today’s agenda:
Caesars’ digital bridgeThe “lofty goal” of $550m of digital EBITDA by 2025 might be optimistic. I can see clearly now: There is “healthy” and “understandable” skepticism around Caesars’ claims to be able to generate $550m of digital profits by 2025, suggested the analysts at Wells Fargo. But they added that they “do see a path” to $400m of EBITDA from the company’s OSB and iCasino business.
Hinge and bracket: To get there, Wells Fargo suggested success will “hinge” on modest sports-betting GGR market share gains, maintaining rational promo spend levels, executing its iCasino ramp while also curtailing marketing. The $550m target rests on Caesars being able to grab 11% medium-term sports-betting market share alongside a “structurally high hold” of 7.2% vs. 2022’s 4.5%. iCasino GGR would need to hit $500m or ~8% market share, promotions cut to $265m and marketing costs pegged at $220m.
Plausibility: Wells Fargo suggested $400m is more plausible, with “more realistic assumptions” for 2025 of 9% sports-betting market share, 7% iCasino share, promos of $230m and marketing at $230m. How do you get to Carnegie Hall? The analysts suggested “several imperatives” for Caesars including improvements on hold – “a must” – and OSB share in new states of ~10%, while the iCasino “market share capture” must also be successful.
** SPONSOR’S MESSAGE ** Founded in 2013, Metric Gaming is based in Las Vegas and London and developed the industry’s first truly multi-tenant sportsbook platform, purpose-built to support operators across multiple territories, regions or States. Metric is proud to be partnered with both Racebook HQ and Lacerta Sports (powered by Starlizard) and will roll out innovative MTS solutions for both racing and sports in 2023, including soccer and four main US sports. To find out more, please visit www.metricgaming.com Drive to surviveChecking in on current development sites, the team at CBRE suggests there is every indication that F1 will be more than a three-year gig. Motor home: Visiting the site of the paddock area currently being built for the Formula 1 Grand Prix in mid-November, the team at CBRE have pointed out the $500m investment in Las Vegas on the part of F1 dwarfs that of other GPs.
More than a pitstop: As it stands, F1 is only slated to appear in Las Vegas for three years. However, CBRE noted that the Clark County Commission recently passed a resolution that made it possible to close Las Vegas Blvd the week before Thanksgiving every year until 2032. Pipeline: CBRE noted that 2023 is a big year for developments and new openings in Las Vegas with 60 projects in the pipeline, including Hard Rock’s rebranding of the Mirage, Red Rock Resorts’ new Durango casino, the opening of the Fontainebleau and the MSG Sphere.
DraftKings deep diveRemaining neutral, Deutsche Bank seeks an “intelligent debate” in future profitability. Point: For the bulls, DB suggested there is evidence of increasing promo intensity, incremental market share gains, better hold percentages and a decent capital position, with net cash providing a “differentiating aspect” among peers. Counterpoint: “Taking a more critical look,” however, DB suggested that promo easing is having a “direct impact” on handle, “taking the steam out” of future TAM projections. Meanwhile, DraftKings is “overly exposed” to lower margin OSB relative to iCasino.
Bally’s diminishing headcountTo do: The application of data-driven marketing into retail casinos and a greater focus on cost management are top of new CEO Robeson Reeves to-do list, according to Wells Fargo.
Analyst takesPlaytech: The team at Peel Hunt admitted their previous FY27 estimate on adj. EBITDA of €518m was a “little miserly” given Playtrech spoke this week about a new medium-term target of between €500m and €600m.
Gambling.com is “off to a hot start” in Q1 due to the launches of the Ohio and Massachusetts sports-betting markets, said the analysts at Truist. Noting that Q4 and Q1 were traditionally the company’s strongest quarters, they suggested the guidance for 2023 of revenues at between $93m and $97m was in line with analyst expectations.
Entain: Despite MGM Resorts’ commentary in early February that it isn’t interested in pursuing a buyout of its BetMGM JV partner, the team at Jefferies refused to let go of the possibility. “Many observers noted the supplementary ‘for now’ comment,” they suggested, potentially grasping for straws. BC’s delayed gratificationNon-instant karma: Better Collective would not divulge “sensitive data” on player values, but CEO Jesper Søgaard said the “delayed gratification” of the revenue share model the group favors varies according to geography.
Earnings in briefZeal: Looking ahead to 2023, the Germany-based lottery product provider said it has an application pending with the German regulator to provide online games. It added that it expected revenues for the year to be between €110m and €120m, with EBITDA expected to come in at €30m-€50m. ICYMISame-game changer: This month’s edition of Due Diligence delved into what is being said by the operators about same-game parlays and in particular about the in-house vs third-party debate.
In Compliance+More yesterday the news was led by the latest multi-million-pound fine handed out by the UK Gambling Commission to Kindred for RG and AML failings.
Sharpr this week reported on comments from New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement Deputy Attorney General Anthony Strangia, who said that about half of the state’s licensed sportsbooks accept esports wagers. On the Gambling Files podcast this week, affiliates marketing was in the spotlight as Fintan chatted to Kim Lund.
Sector watch – crypto tradingStake on me: Coinbase saw its shares drop over 14% on Thursday after the company told the market it had received a warning from the SEC about an impending action on various trading activities.
Well done: Staking means exchange users lock up their tokens in other crypto projects in return for a high yield. Awaken the Kraken: Coinbase maintains the tokens listed on its exchange are not securities. However, rival Kraken discontinued its own staking business under similar pressure from the US authorities, albeit without admitting or denying the SEC allegations.
Further reading: Matt Levine on what the SEC really wants. 😱 Coinbase’s five-day share price chart ** SPONSOR’S MESSAGE ** Venture capital firm Yolo Investments manages in excess of €600m in capital across 80 exciting fintech, gaming and blockchain companies. The Yolo Investments' Gaming fund, regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, has taken positions in fast-growth suppliers and operators, including Dabble and Enteractive. Yolo Investments (yolo.io) wants to hear from readers of this newsletter. Get in touch with your pitch, or for a chat about innovative products which can plug into our investment ecosystem. NewslinesCentury Casinos has received licensing approval from the Nevada Gaming Commission in relation to its acquisition of the Nugget Casino in Sparks. EveryMatrix has been awarded a license to distribute its content, platform and services in Connecticut. On socialThey'd cause problems up top in League 2 Politics UK @PolitlcsUK Calendar
An +More Media publication. For sponsorship inquiries email scott@andmore.media. Earnings+More is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Earnings+More that their writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless they enable payments. |
Older messages
Playtech’s hard rockin’ ’n’ rollin’
Thursday, March 23, 2023
Playtech talks up Hard Rock, Gambling.com is a doubler, BC talks up digital sports future, Michigan data +More
Same-game changer
Tuesday, March 21, 2023
The lowdown on SGPs, analyst takes +More
US sportsbooks’ banking choice MVB tumbles
Monday, March 20, 2023
Banking crisis drags MVB shares down, Spain's local heroes, PA data, startup focus – Grilla +More
Weekend Edition #89
Friday, March 17, 2023
Betr's expanded offering, Light & Wonder dual track, Sportradar analyst reaction, New Jersey February +More
Sportradar’s game, set and match
Thursday, March 16, 2023
Sportradar CEO talks revenues and ATP, Playtech's Hard Rock deal, Jason Robins' taxonomy, Super Group and Inspired earnings +More
You Might Also Like
Back in Action + Exciting News for January
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Ready to grow in 2025? ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Tinder′s early days growth hack
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
I love that you're part of my network. Let's make 2025 epic!! I appreciate you :) Today's hack Tinder′s early days growth hack We sent [Whitney Wolfe] all over the country… Her pitch was
How's your agency using AI?
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Hi there , One of the hottest topics right now in the business world is AI. And while a lot of businesses are talking about how they're using AI, I haven't seen much discussion from agency
🌁#83: GAN is back
Monday, January 13, 2025
we're revisiting classics. Are GANs still worthy of their title as one of the most captivating ideas in ML? plus collection of interesting articles, relevant news and must-read research papers.
B.C. Is Taxing Sellers On Nearly All Of Your Fees [Roundup]
Monday, January 13, 2025
Hey Reader, E-commerce taxation is a huge mess in British Columbia right now. If you're not from the great white north, then you should know that Amazon has been overcharging sellers PST since 2021
Brand and agency survey: Integrating branding and performance
Monday, January 13, 2025
How do you manage your performance and branding strategies?
Facebook Professional Mode in 2025
Monday, January 13, 2025
Today's Guide to the Marketing Jungle from Social Media Examiner... Presented by social-media-marketing-world-logo It's National Soup Month, Reader! What's simmering in your soup pot? In
Content Marketing in 2025
Monday, January 13, 2025
63% of marketers plan to increase their content creation budget for 2025. But simply cranking out more content isn't going to cut it... and that's exactly what most businesses plan to do. I
Is This The New 60/40 Portfolio?
Monday, January 13, 2025
Listen now (3 mins) | To investors, ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
Insurers brace for LA fires’ impact
Monday, January 13, 2025
Biopharma's key is chemistry; ID'ing public comps for AI, healthcare services startups; Timberlyne Therapeutics banks $180M Series A Read online | Don't want to receive these emails? Manage