Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - China’s great slowdown

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the few Wall Street strategists to see last year’s equities rout coming, has been among the market’s leading pessimists throughout 2023. But on Monday, after months of soaring stocks, he changed his tune and now sees the rally continuing to run. US stocks are tracking the same path they did in 2019—one of the best years for the S&P 500 Index over the past decade as it handed investors a 29% return, Wilson wrote in a note to clients. —Natasha Solo-Lyons

Nevertheless, traders on Monday refrained from making big bets as concern about an overheated market resurfaced. The current rally has driven the S&P 500 to its longest streak of monthly gains since August 2021, so as the thinking goes, it will probably end soon. Here’s your markets wrap. 

US homeowners are nearly twice as willing to sell if their mortgage rate is 5% or higher—but just one in five mortgaged homes meet that criteria. For those who have a mortgage rate of at least 5%, 38% said they’re planning on selling their homes, according to a quarterly survey. Just 21% of holders with rates below that dividing line said the same. Existing-home sales have fallen almost every month since the start of last year as higher mortgage rates disincentivize owners from moving. 

It’s never been more challenging to find an affordable home to buy in the US. High prices, a critical shortage of listings and mortgage rates that have more than doubled from record lows just a couple years ago are forcing countless Americans to put their next move on hold.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is likely to head to New York in September for the United Nations General Assembly, where he is expected to make the case for his “peace formula” plan, according to people familiar with the matter.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

The US Treasury is set this week to begin a ramp-up in issuance of longer-dated securities that’s likely to stretch into next year, thanks to a collossal budget deficit and high interest rates. For the first time since early 2021, the Treasury will boost its so-called quarterly refunding of longer-term Treasuries, to $102 billion from $96 billion, the consensus among dealers suggests. 

A state judge in Georgia rejected ex-President Donald Trump’s demands that the court suppress evidence gathered last year by a special grand jury probing how he allegedly sought to block the transfer of power to Joe Biden. The ruling clears the way for what may be the third indictment filed against the Republican this year—with a fourth, potentially more serious prosecution looming as well.

Miami wants to attract even more out-of-state workers and wealthy newcomers like hedge fund tycoon Ken Griffin. But first, its leaders must face a huge environmental problem: overflowing garbage heaps and septic tanks.

Residential sewer construction in Miami Photographer: Marco Bello

• Asia’s richest families fuel the race for lucrative finance jobs.
• How hedge fund managers are using ChatGPT.
• Trucking firm Yellow shuts down after financial woes, union says.
• Extreme heat and aging power grids are a deadly combination.
• Bloomberg Opinion: The death of summer.
• Has America’s air travel boom peaked?
• For all the Taylor Swift hype, event spending is tame.

China is showing signs of a significant economic slowdown after decades of supercharged growth. A much anticipated post-pandemic recovery appears to have flopped, with data flashing warning signs across the economy. This time, the government’s traditional tools for reversing course may not be viable options. The country must come to grips with how to manage a shaky property sector, sluggish consumer spending and towering local debt. In the Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary China’s Great Slowdown, we explore the reality behind promises by Chinese leader Xi Jinping and other top Communist Party leaders to revive the world’s second-largest economy.

Xi Jinping Photographer: Andre Malerba/Bloomberg

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