Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Beginning of the end?

Though the conventional wisdom was already pressing the pause button, some new data seems to have affirmed it. US Federal Reserve policymakers are increasingly likely to leave interest rates unchanged at their next meeting after fresh evidence of easing inflation, but (as in the past) they will probably add the caveat that their job isn’t done yet. A report Thursday showed the core consumer price index, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2% for a second month. That marked the smallest back-to-back gains in more than two years, adding to a steady wave of disinflation in recent months. Is it a pause like in June, or could this potentially be the end of the central bank’s war on inflation? One faction of the Fed’s policy-setting committee argue that the past year-and-a-half of interest-rate hikes has done its job, while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation reaccelerating. —Margaret Sutherlin and David E. Rovella

In another sign of the worsening economy in China, one the country’s top builders said it projects up to a $7.6 billion loss in the first half of the year. Country Garden is one of the few major Chinese developers yet to default following Evergrande’s collapse, and a failure to pay its debt would pummel fragile investor sentiment just as Beijing seeks to revive the troubled property market.

Troops were deployed across Ecuador on Thursday to enforce a state of emergency after presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated. The killing of Villavicencio, a serious contender to reach a runoff with a reputation as an anti-corruption campaigner, throws Ecuador’s unstable political environment into further turmoil.  Current President Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved congress this year to avoid impeachment, vowed to catch Villavicencio’s killers.

Fernando Villavicencio Source: Getty Images

US gunmakers are sending thousands of guns to Guatemala since a 2020 regulatory change. The influx has pushed Guatemala ahead of Brazil, a country with 12 times its population, as the top destination for US-made semiautomatics in Latin America. The results have been stark. The number of murders in Guatemala—more than 80% of them involving firearms—has risen annually. Waves of migrants from the country are now showing up at the US southern border, underscoring how nations on the receiving end of US firearms are ill equipped to handle the influx, and the blowback that results for the sender.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear a US appeal of Purdue Pharma’s $6 billion opioid settlement. The Biden administration contends the accord improperly shields the Sackler family members who own the company. The high court review could threaten Purdue Pharma’s bankruptcy reorganization plan, which includes the opioid settlement as well as an agreement by the Sacklers to give up ownership of the company.

Maui rescuers are digging through the wreckage of a massive wildfire that has killed at least 36 people, making it the deadliest US blaze since the 2018 Camp Fire. The Hawaiian island has faced a hot and dry summer, and fierce winds from a nearby hurricane fueled fast-moving fires that wiped the historic town of Lahaina off the map, destroyed hundreds of homes and businesses and sent thousands fleeing the island.

Lahaina in western Maui was destroyed in a catastrophic wildfire that killed at least three dozen people.  Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP

The parent company of Coach and Stuart Weitzman is buying Michael Kors and Versace’s owner for $8.5 billion. Tapestry’s purchase of Capri Holding creates the closest thing the US has to rival European luxury heavy hitters LVMH, Kering and Richemont. Combined, the US companies should muster a bigger stake in the global luxury game.

As Morgan Stanley’s James Gorman considers who to put forth to succeed him as CEO, he’s unleashing a wave of speculation inside—and outside—the bank. And while everyone has an opinion, one thing that’s especially striking is one of Gorman’s declarations about the process: He wants to defy deeply entrenched Wall Street norms with a drama free handoff. Watch the Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary on Gorman—the man who rebuilt Morgan Stanley.

James Gorman Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

• West African countries plan to deploy standby troops near Niger.
• Iran moved US citizens from prison to house arrest in diplomatic deal. 
• New Covid variant “Eris” is spreading widely. Here’s the latest. 
• Drug resistant strains of gonorrhea have drugmakers racing for cures. 
• A national Grand Canyon monument at the won’t stop the uranium hunt.
• Hollywood studios are preparing a new offer for striking writers. 
• Saudi Pro Football League lined up deals to broadcast globally.

Airbnb hosts are hitting a wall, and they’re calling it Airbnbust. Revenue from short-term rentals across the country—from Orlando to outside Joshua Tree National Park in California—is falling. Creeping angst about the phenomenon started spreading last fall on the internet and in host chat groups. There’s a Reddit channel where hosts commiserate and share news stories with titles such as: “Is Airbnb in a Death Spiral?” 

Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Get the Bloomberg Evening Briefing: If you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here to receive Bloomberg’s flagship briefing in your mailbox daily—along with our Weekend Reading edition on Saturdays.

Intelligent Automation—Transformation in a Time of Uncertainty: Top business and IT executives will gather in a city near you to explore ways in which intelligent automation can offset economic pressures and help organizations thrive by enhancing operational efficiencies and stakeholder value. We'll feature in-depth conversations about designing and implementing high-value projects, building teams that embrace automation and making the business case to top management about investing in transformation. For Mumbai on Aug. 18, Register here; For London on Sept. 19, Register here; For Toronto on Oct. 19, Register here; And for Seattle on Nov. 8, Register here.