Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Half measures

Xi Jinping has long resisted pulling the trigger on major stimulus to revive the world’s second-biggest economy, and the market’s reaction to a surprise rate cut shows investors aren’t looking for half measures. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday lowered the rate on its one-year loans—or medium-term lending facility—by 15 basis points to 2.5%, the steepest cut in three years. The move came shortly before the release of July data that showed weak consumer spending growth, sliding investment and rising unemployment. More broadly, the economic picture looks even worse. Bank loans plunged to a 14-year low last month while deflation is setting in and exports are contracting. One of China’s largest property developers is at risk of default and a financial conglomerate with 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) under management missed payments on investment products, stoking fears about possible contagion. —David E. Rovella

Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and the leading presidential candidate, is trying hard to be a low-voltage continuity candidate in one of the most fractured races in Taiwan’s history. Soft-spoken and mild-mannered, Lai’s election could set up Taiwan for four more years of peace and prosperity. Or it could start a war that, as an opposition politician puts it, “opens the doors to hell.” With five months to go before January’s election, Lai has a little less than 40% of the population’s support, an assertive but by no means commanding position in Taiwan’s turbulent political landscape. Then comes a somber reminder of the election’s very serious—and potentially grave—stakes. 

Some US military officials have said China could have the capability to invade Taiwan by 2027, while others (and China) dismiss such warnings. In Taipei however, the government isn’t waiting around—​​​​​the island democracy says it’s preparing for any contingency. Watch the Bloomberg Originals video How China's Threat of Invasion is Changing Taiwan. Photographer: Feng Li/Getty Images

Twice impeached former US President Donald Trump has now been indicted four times in five months. The allegations range from an accounting fraud involving payoffs to an ex-adult film star to a broad conspiracy to subvert American democracy. In Atlanta, where a grand jury just handed up the latest charges, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis ventured where Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith has chosen not to go—at least so far. She not only charged Trump but also 18 of his allies over efforts to illegally upend the transfer of power to Joe Biden. Trump’s former lawyer Rudy Giuliani, his then-chief of staff Mark Meadows and ex-assistant attorney general Jeffrey Clark were among the Republican’s aides and associates indicted in Georgia on Monday. 

Global household wealth fell last year for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008, as inflation and the appreciation of the US dollar wiped away some $11.3 trillion off assets. Total net private wealth across the world decreased by 2.4% to a total of $454.4 trillion, according to Credit Suisse’s annual global wealth report published on Tuesday. The bulk of the decline was felt in North American and European households, which lost a combined $10.9 trillion.

As US Federal Reserve officials appear to close in on the end of their tightening campaign, the debate is shifting from how high interest rates need to go to how long they should stay elevated. Inflation pressures are easing, which could give policymakers room to keep interest rates at or near current levels. Still, price gains remain well above the central bank’s 2% target, making policymakers hesitant to declare victory.

Steve Schwarzman had a tough message for Blackstone executives gathered earlier this year in New York: Get your act together. The object of the billionaire co-founder’s displeasure? Blackstone Growth, or BXG. The division, which raised $4.5 billion for its debut fund, was supposed to mint Silicon Valley-esque fortunes and plug the rest of Blackstone into fast-growing companies. The firm entered at the peak of the madness, just in time to join bidding wars before the market turned. BXG’s splashy debut had the second-biggest markdown last year in Blackstone’s private equity lineup, after ill-timed investments in Oatly oat milk and hot-then-not startups. Blackstone, unaccustomed to missteps, is on track to wind up billions short of its target for BXG’s second fund.

Russia may partially reinstate capital controls to stem a slump in the ruble to levels not seen since the start of its war on Ukraine. The proposal to mandate sales of export revenues was discussed at a meeting between the government and exporters on Monday, before the Bank of Russia announced an emergency rate hike. The precipitous decline in the Russian currency has thrust the central bank onto center stage in an increasingly fraught debate over how to steer an economy battered by shrinking export revenues and isolated from international financial markets. And even with rates now at their highest in over a year, the market remains unimpressed as capital seeps out.

VinFast Auto soared on its first day in the public markets, boosting the fortune of its billionaire founder. Vietnam’s richest man now has about $37 billion. He directly and indirectly controls 99% of the company’s outstanding shares, mostly through his conglomerate, Vingroup JSC. But that large stake limits the shares available for other investors to trade, meaning the stock is prone to large swings.

Pham Nhat Vuong Photographer: Linh Pham/Bloomberg

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Europe’s citizenship-by-investment programs are alive and well, despite calls from across the political spectrum to end them. In Greece and Portugal, the number of visas granted in recent months has been rising, and demand in Italy and Spain has hit record levels. So-called golden visas allow wealthy foreigners to gain EU residency—and by extension, a path to citizenship—by investing in local real estate or financial assets. There are few strings attached, and some programs require spending no more than a week in the country per year.

Investors are gravitating towards Italy’s golden visas just as Portugal tightens its rules. Photographer: Andrea Merola/Bloomberg

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