Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Ground comes up fast

For those predicting a so-called soft landing for the US economy, the runway may be getting close. Economists are growing more optimistic  as inflation cools without doing much damage to the labor market. But for those hoping the Federal Reserve will soon begin reversing its interest rate hikes, you’re likely to be disappointed. The central bank is now predicted to hold rates higher for longer—well into 2024—to keep inflation at bay as consumers remain willing and able to spend while overall growth trucks ahead at a moderate pace. The Fed even indicated that more hikes could be in store if inflation stops slowing. This sunny economic state of affairs for post-pandemic America is the opposite of what arch-rival China is going through. Confidence in the world’s second-largest economy is slumping as authorities frantically step up efforts to bolster financial markets. Beijing appears to have grown ever-more uncomfortable with declines in stocks and the yuan. Globally, however, the outlook is a bit rosier. Experts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the world economy to expand more than initially projected this year, echoing positive forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But while the Fed may wish to congratulate itself for reining in inflation, the dynamic is shifting—especially now that it’s on the glide path. The risk going forward isn’t doing too little, but doing too much. The ground can sometimes come up fast.

Though the dead from the devastating wildfire in Maui have yet to be fully accounted for or identified, the legal fallout has begun. A lawsuit blames equipment from the Hawaiian Electric Industries, the island’s power utility, for starting the blazes that killed more than 100 people. The company, facing massive liability costs, has lost half of its market value. On Monday, President Joe Biden will travel to Maui to see the devastation firsthand after having stayed away (and been assailed by Republicans for it, despite saying he didn’t want to get in the way of recovery operations.) While there, he is to meet with local leaders to discuss steps for further aid.

The remans of Lahaina, on western Maui in Hawaii Photographer: Moses Slovatizki/AFP

You need a scorecard to keep track of Donald Trump’s legal problems, both criminal and civil, and what they might mean for his 2024 run. Bloomberg has one right here. Trump is avoiding next week’s first GOP debate, which makes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis the default punching bag even though his status as runner up is fading. Trump it seems has bigger fish to fry, like surrendering to Georgia police to be arrested on charges he masterminded a sprawling racketeering conspiracy. Sort of like the kind brought against mobsters by fellow defendant Rudy Giuliani back in the day. But irony aside, it’s a case with a smoking gun, Timothy O’Brien writes in Bloomberg Opinion.

A far-right libertarian staged an upset in Argentina’s presidential primary. Javier Milei’s plans if he wins the general election include shuttering the central bank, which he told Bloomberg in an interview “has no reason to exist.” But Milei said he would make every effort to avoid a default on the country’s sovereign debt and said he would scrap the Argentine peso for the US dollar as a way to bring down inflation that’s running at 113%. Argentina’s incumbent government just devalued the peso and hiked rates again in a desperate policy shift. Milei it turns out is a dog lover: he has said that he communicates with his deceased pooch, Conan. 

Javier Milei appeared on an Argentine television show in 2018 with four of his English Mastiffs. Source: Bloomberg

US doctors on the frontlines of America’s mass shootings were once reluctant to get involved in the politically charged debate over gun regulation. But now, with gun violence the country’s leading cause of death for people under the age of 19, that’s changing. Europe is bracing for the possible influx of a drug that hooked the Middle East. Crackdowns there have spurred producers in Syria and Lebanon to tap new markets for the amphetamine-type pill captagon. Known as the “poor man’s cocaine,” it sells for around $3 to $25 per tablet.

Are you rich but don’t feel that way? In a nationwide survey of over 1,000 Americans with an income of about $175,000 a year or more, a full one-quarter of them told us they were either “very poor,” “poor,” or “getting by but things are tight.” Try out our wealth tool and see where you land. Michelin Guides, published for a century now, are booming–but the number of starred restaurants owned by Black chefs lags in the single digits. And one of our intrepid reporters spent a week on party-hard Ibiza as a concierge. What did he learn? The DJ is God; you can get a bathtub of champagne; and hotel guests sometimes have trouble keeping their clothes on.

Learn the concierge secrets of Ibiza. Illustration: Tomi Um

• England and Spain meet in the women’s World Cup final.
• Fed strategy insight at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
• BRICS group of emerging markets summit, with eyes on de-dollarization.
• The last of China’s big tech earnings, including Kuaishou and Meituan.
• Republicans hold their first presidential debate.

LVMH is Europe’s most valuable company. The insatiable global demand for luxury goods and stellar financial results have made its leader, Bernard Arnault, 74, the world’s second-wealthiest person. But cooling consumer appetites in critical markets may soon take their toll. In the Bloomberg Originals short documentary, Bernard Arnault: King of Luxury, we meet the man behind a conglomerate built by decades of acquisitions, and explore the question of who will someday replace him. 

The king of luxury, LVMH chief Bernard Arnault Photographer: Ludovic Marin/AFP

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