Good morning. Let’s basketball.

The 2023 FIBA (Men’s) World Cup starts in the wee hours of Friday morning for those of us in the Western Hemisphere. Here’s a hype video from FIBA starring exactly zero American players!

While there are some high-profile absences from among the best international stars, there are still a bunch of NBA players in the tournament outside of Team USA. Let’s briefly talk about them and their teams’ tournament outlooks.

On that note:

• This list is incredibly NBA centric. There are many more players in the tournament who currently play college ball or play high-level European, African or Asian club basketball. I’m obviously NBA centric, so this list is as well. Let me know in the comments what BAL and Euroleague stars I’m missing here.

• “Top” 23 players is fuzzy because there’s a combination of broader NBA relevance and FIBA impact. For example, Willy Hernangomez rates much higher than you’d expect. Why? Well, he might end up the tournament MVP because Spain is a favorite to win. He’s not a better basketball player than some of the players below him, but in the context of his team and this tournament, it’d be silly to have him too low. (I still probably have him too low. Where to slot the Spaniards is very difficult.)

• I left out the Team USA players because everyone knows Team USA is filled with high(-ish) level NBA players. There’s no need to extend this list to 30 and have yet another debate about Tyrese Haliburton vs. Jalen Brunson. Please note that had I included the Americans I probably would have included only one in the top five, and I don’t have any clue whether it would have been Anthony Edwards, who is the clear star of the team at this juncture, or Jaren Jackson Jr., whose defense might decide the tournament.

• I will write about Team USA specifically later this week. I am cautiously optimistic. They have an identity, which is more than you can say for the 2019 World Cup team that finished in disaster.

Alright, let’s list.

1. Luka Doncic, Slovenia

Top five player in the world when healthy and fit. Slovenia has pretty light competition in the first group stage (Venezuela, Cape Verde and Georgia) but the second group stage could get mean (two of Germany, Australia and Finland will likely be there). Slovenia is ranked No. 7 in the world right now, but I think Luka himself and a solid supporting cast puts them in conversation for tournament favorite, especially with Nikola Jokic missing for Serbia and Giannis Antetokounmpo sitting out for Greece.

Winning this tournament and the MVP award would be a heckuva way to prepare for an important season in Dallas.

2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Canada

SGA is a top-10 player in the NBA right now (don’t ask me for the other nine or No. 11) and this is Canada’s best chance in a long time to make real noise in a big international tournament. It’ll be really interesting to see how Shai’s A+ NBA-style offense translates to the weird FIBA meta. Foul-drawing in particular will be something interesting to watch. I’m also curious about how much he controls the offense. In Oklahoma City, he’s had full run of the show since Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder left. Now he has Dillon Brooks and R.J. Barrett looking for shots, too. Brooks in particular is an interesting offensive chemistry experiment here.

3. Lauri Markkanen, Finland

Lauri has put Finnish basketball on the map (shout out Petteri Koponen, though) and is a spectacular individual player. He’s my early favorite for landing the highest points per game average in the tournament. Unfortunately, Finland landed in a brutal group with Australia and Germany (plus Japan, which isn’t a slouch). Winning two games in the first group stage is going to be tough, and then Luka’s Slovenia awaits in the second round. Finland has only won a single World Cup game ever. This is only their second time qualifying for the tournament.

But of course, in basketball a single star can make a huge difference. We saw that last season for the Jazz, and maybe we’ll see that this summer for the Finns.

4. Karl Anthony-Towns, Dominican Republic

KAT is serving as the unquestioned top dog on a national team playing with house money after narrowing squeezing into the World Cup with an amazing win over Argentina last winter.

I’m not sure KAT is a prototype FIBA big but we know he’s a spectacular scorer — he might challenge Markkanen for that scoring title. There’s also just zero pressure here. No one is expecting great things from this squad. Isn’t that a perfect situation for Towns?

And now, since we’re in the Caribbean, a brief interlude to share that THE BAHAMAS beat Argentina in Argentina again to earn a place in the Olympic Qualifying Tournament early next summer. They will be competing against a bunch of mid-tier teams from the World Cup and some other pre-qualifiers (the best of which is Croatia). If all of Deandre Ayton, Buddy Hield and Eric Gordon come back in the 2024 summer, The Bahamas has a real shot to make the Olympic tournament. And yes, 34-year-old Eric Gordon is essential to that statement.

FIBA Eric Gordon might be the greatest player in the world. And while The Bahamas won’t be in this World Cup, this is the type of performance you can expect for non-star NBA players put in this unique FIBA situations.

5. Rudy Gobert, France

Gobert could very well win tournament MVP if France win the Cup, as they very well could. A dominant defender made more dominant by FIBA’s rules. A great finisher when he doesn’t have NBA-caliber rim defense to deal with. Lots of FIBA experience and lots of reps with France’s other stars including Evan Fournier, Terry Tarpey and Nicolas Batum.

If you like to see Rudy Gobert succeed (anyone?), this should be a great few weeks for you!

6. Franz Wagner, Germany

During Dirk Nowitzki’s reign, Germany never had the guards to make the team consistently competitive in international play. Also, Dirk participated inconsistently. Things look different as Franz Wagner rises: Dennis Schroder is the leader of the team and one of the best playmakers in the tournament, and there is some NBA-caliber depth here with Mo Wagner and Daniel Theis. Franz is the star, though, and I’m eager to see how he does here and then how that translates back to the Magic when the NBA season starts. Could this be a repeat of how Markkanen took FIBA success into a huge NBA leap last year?

7. Jordan Clarkson, Philippines

Jordan Clarkson is a) the coolest player in the tournament and b) gets to play his tournament debut on Friday in the Manila suburbs in an arena said to be the biggest in the world with a 55,000-person capacity. I know basketball is enormously popular in the Philippines. I don’t know that FIBA is managing this properly (hmph) so I have no idea if 55,000 Filipinos are going to be in there chanting “Gilas!” and “Clark-son!” but fingers crossed. If so, this is going to be one of the coolest basketball things to watch all year. I can’t wait. The game is 8 AM Eastern on Friday.

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8. R.J. Barrett, Canada

Brunson is the unquestioned star of the Knicks now, but I remain a Barrett believer. He’s another candidate for the Markkanen FIBA-to-NBA leap. He’s obviously a big part of how deep Canada can go. The talent and ability are there, and he’s theoretically a great fit with Shai. The theory is there. We need the reality. In any case, it’s good to see him in a new, different context.

9. Josh Giddey, Australia

Another Thundarian in the World Cup, this one helping lead an Australia team that could be back in the medal hunt after winning bronze at the Olympics and finished 4th in the last World Cup. Giddey is pure joy to watch, and with Ben Simmons again sitting out FIBA competition he’s by far the best creator for the Aussies.

10. Willy Hernangomez, Spain

Willy Hernangomez has never been able to average 20 minutes per game in the NBA … but he’s the reigning EuroBasket MVP, helping lead Spain to a gold over France last summer. He’s actually left the NBA now, having signed with Barcelona. His place this high on the list is a stand-in for all the Spaniards, any of whom could break out for a team always in the hunt for gold. Santi Aldama appears to be coming off the bench, but Alex Abrines and Juancho Hernangomez are in play, too.

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11. Lu Dort, Canada

Lu Dort! Improbably playing point guard next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City and improbably playing point guard next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for Canada.

12. Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania

The big guy is still a beast in certain settings, and Lithuania qualifies. JV is the only “star” available for the Lithuanian team this summer — Domantas Sabonis is sitting out — but his team has a pretty clear path to the knockouts despite a likely second group stage match with the United States. Valanciunas and company draw Egypt, Mexico and Nikola Vucevic’s Montenegro in the first group stage. Should Lithuania sweep them, a split with Team USA and the other team coming out of Group C (Jordan, Greece or New Zealand) should do the trick. And Lithuania’s “other” players are usually pretty high quality. So we just might see a path toward the Lithuanians going deep and Valanciunas getting a look at All-Tournament. It could happen!

13. Nikola Vucevic, Montenegro

I’m less convinced of Vooch’s path to that success: Montenegro didn’t do particularly well in either the 2019 World Cup or last summer’s EuroBasket. But if there are stakes, that group stage battle between Vooch and JV on August 29 could get interesting!

14. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia

Serbia is missing the NBA Finals MVP but still might win it all thanks to depth of talent, led by the Younger Bogdanovic (he’s 31), who figures to score lots and lots of points. He was the top scorer in the 2019 World Cup and made the All-Tournament team despite Serbia finishing 5th. Serbia disappointed last summer at EuroBasket with Nikola Jokic … but without Bogdanovic. Interesting!

15. Patty Mills, Australia

Patty Mills is not just the heart and soul of the Australian men’s basketball program, but possibly the heart and soul of basketball itself? Anyways, despite his increasing age, he’s always good for a spectacular performance in international play.

Here’s the time he scored 42 points in the bronze medal game against Slovenia in the Olympics two years ago.

Here’s another example from a warm-up game between Australia and France over the weekend. Please note that the French and Australian basketball teams have a solid rivalry, fueled in part by the 2019 WC third-place game. This is Josh Giddey ripping a rebound away from Rudy Gobert to set up the Patty Mills go-ahead turn-around over Gobert. Yes.

16. Evan Fournier, France

… and if you keep watching after the sick Mills shot, you’ll see Evan Fournier commit a near-turnover (saved only by the baseline) and then miss a go-ahead corner three. Tom Thibodeau laughs.

Fournier is the Main Character on offense for France, which isn’t great, but the French team is very good and as mentioned Gobert is a very strong FIBA performer. So Fournier is mighty important. If he has a hot stretch — as he is prone to do — he becomes a tournament MVP contender.

17. Dennis Schroder, Germany

Dennis Schroder! Once seen as a streaky cool German skateboarder kid, then seen as a coach-killing malcontent, now seen as the streaky cool German skateboard grown man who trolls persistently and is … somehow a vocal leader of the national team? We love it.

He was awesome for Germany last summer (including a 38-point game) as the team won bronze. As mentioned in the Markkanen blurb, Group E is pretty tough. But between the Wagners and Schroder, there’s some punch here.

18. Kyle Anderson, China

I don’t think China is going to be in play for a medal by any stretch of the imagination, but I wanted to point out that Kyle Anderson is playing for the Chinese national team after gaining citizenship. He has Chinese Jamaican ancestry in his family line.

Yes, this means that both parts of the consequential Kyle Anderson vs. Rudy Gobert sideline fight are participating in this FIBA tournament, notable because FIBA tournament often host impromptu fistfights. Unfortunately for fans of drama and potential violence, it is highly unlikely France and China will meet in the tournament due to their group assignments. You’ll need to wait for Timberwolves training camp to open for that.

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19. Dillon Brooks, Canada

Sorry, NBA fans: Dillon Brooks is inescapable.

20. Kelly Olynyk, Canada

While he has played in qualifiers over the years, this is actually Olynyk’s first major tournament appearance for Canada since the 2010 World Cup, when he was 19. Given that he feels like the most Canadian basketball player on the planet, this is a bit of a surprise!

21. Matisse Thybulle, Australia

Mills’ scoring outburst was the biggest reason the Boomers beat Slovenia in the third-place game in the last Olympics, but the second reason is that Luka Doncic had a tough night. That tough night was caused in part by a certain Matisse Thybulle, who reached the peak of his perceived powers around that time, before eventually falling out of Doc Rivers’ Philly rotation and getting moved. Anyways, Thybulle’s ability to lock down opposing wings for stretches looms importantly in this tournament as Australia seeks more precious metal.

22. Tremont Waters, Puerto Rico

Rivers is Naz Reid’s LSU running mate, a former Celtic and Victor Wembanyama’s teammate last season. It looks like he’s back in the Puerto Rican league this season. But before then, the dude is definitely going to rack up some highlights in the World Cup.

Did you see him put Mikal Bridges in a blender in the warm-up between PR and the U.S.?

23. Yuta Watanabe, Japan

Japan is 5-21 all-time in World Cup play. This is their second time hosting — they’ll play the first group stage in Okinawa. They also hosted the Olympics a couple years ago and … went 0-3. But you know what? You don’t need to win to be fun to watch. And Yuta Watanabe is FUN to watch.

Also receiving consideration: Josh Green, Australia (who is often trending on Twitter these days; every time I think Josh Green had some sick highlight in an Australia warm-up game but then I am reminded that the governor of Hawai’i is named Josh Green) (in news that happened since I wrote this blurb, Josh Green was injured during a Boomer game, and began trending on Twitter when the DFW metroplex woke up); Dyson Daniels, Australia; Dwight Powell, Canada; Nicolas Batum, France; 38-year-old Rudy Fernandez, Spain; Bo Cruz, Spain; Santi Aldama, Spain; Alex Abrines, Spain.