While presidential candidates are racing toward the 2024 elections, several states have elections THIS year that could give us clues to where we’re headed. Let’s briefly turn away from the circus of Republican presidential candidates (🤦) and look at the states that have elections coming up this fall...

Mississippi - November 7, 2023

Mississippi’s governors’ race is the election receiving top-billing this year, primarily because current Republican Governor Tate Reeves is unpopular and risks losing to Democratic candidate Brandon Presley. While some in the media are already forecasting a ‘Mississippi Miracle’ (Presley’s win would mark the first time in 20 years that the state was led by a Democrat) polling isn’t on Presley’s side. Recent polling puts Reeves ahead of Presley by 11-points and even more importantly: 35% of voters said that they still didn’t know enough about Presley to share an opinion. Democrats were leaning on Presley’s famous last name to help voters recognize his campaign but that’s not proving to be the lightning rod they expected. What will ultimately determine Democratic success (or failure) is how successfully Presley is able to reach the state’s Black voting base. Black voters make up the core constituency of the Mississippi Democratic party and they also face numerous barriers preventing them from voting reliably in every election. Presley needs to make Black voter outreach a campaign priority if he hopes to have any chance of winning in November.

Louisiana - October 14, 2023

In Louisiana the parties’ roles are flipped: Democrats are playing defense and Republicans are the ones trying to take the governor’s seat. Current Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is unable to run for re-election and has endorsed his transportation secretary Shawn Wilson, a Black Democrat, in the race to succeed him. The Republican field is crowded with many candidates but Attorney General Jeff Landry has emerged as the race’s clear Republican frontrunner. While most expect a Republican to win handily, there’s a slim chance that Republican infighting can carve out a narrow lane of success for Wilson. (That was how Edwards won his first election.) Landry has been making headlines recently due to his unusual habit of avoiding gubernatorial forums where he might appear on a stage next to other candidates. Most notably, he’s declared that he will skip the state’s first gubernatorial debate. In addition, an ethics charge has emerged against Landry alleging that he accepted an illegal gift in relation to his position as attorney general.

Louisiana’s gubernatorial election is a jungle primary, meaning that all candidates will face off on a single ballot on October 18th and if no candidate receives a majority vote, the top two vote-getters will go head-to-head in a runoff on November 18th. Many expect that Wilson and Landry will face off in a November runoff, however some are boldly predicting that Landry will capture a majority of votes on the first ballot, preventing a runoff.

Kentucky - November 7, 2023

Much like in Louisiana, Democrats in Kentucky are playing defense as Gov. Andy Beshear runs for re-election. Republicans have nominated a rare Black conservative candidate: Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the state’s first Black attorney general. Cameron and Beshear butt heads publicly during the COVID-19 pandemic as Cameron attempted to block Beshear from enforcing public health restrictions throughout the state. Unlike the other two gubernatorial races, in Kentucky the Democratic candidate has consistently polled ahead of his Republican challenger. Beshear is known as one of America’s most popular governors and has the highest approval of GOP voters within his own state when compared to other current Democratic governors. While Cameron’s unique identity as a Black Republican has the potential to scramble established voting patterns, most are expecting Beshear to win re-election in November.

Special US House Elections

Voters in two US House districts will vote on new representatives to fill existing vacancies.

Rhode Island’s 1st: Democratic Rep. David Cicilline resigned in May 2023, opening up this safe Democratic seat. (The district supported Pres. Biden by a wide 29-point margin in the 2020 election.) The Democratic primary for this race will be held on September 5 and includes a wide range of candidates including the state’s current lieutenant governor, a former White House aide and several state legislators. The seat is widely expected to be held by Democrats during the general election on November 7.

Utah’s 2nd: Republican Rep. Chris Stewart is expected to resign on Sept 15, 2023 due to his wife’s ongoing health issues. The district supported Donald Trump by a 17-point margin in 2020 and is expected to stay in Republican hands. A primary will be held on September 5 and the general election will be held on November 21.

More From Battleground

• Learn more about how DINOs have survived in Louisiana

• After splitting Salt Lake City area voters across four congressional districts, Republicans’ latest congressional district map is facing a lawsuit alleging partisan gerrymandering. The Utah Supreme Court is hearing the case and is expected to deliver a verdict soon.

• Mississippi’s (White) Democrats have suspicious minds…