Don’t be scared by this biz model

Hey Contrarians,

This fall, let’s promise to go big… on everything except venti pumpkin lattes.

You know I’m all for adding some spice to life but I certainly don’t need more of that pumpkin sh*t.

Even so…

The popularity of those plump orange gourds speaks to the lucrative magic behind temporary, seasonal businesses, and today, we’re here to uncover it.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you'll learn:

✔️ Contrarian framework: Find your “pop”

✔️ 4 keys to great pop-up biz’s

✔️ Halloween: A scary-good biz model

✔️ 6 pop-ups I’ve seen work

Contrarian Framework: Find your “pop”

We humans, we love it when nice things… pop up out of nowhere.

A cute lemonade stand on the corner. Temporary art that makes you stop in your tracks. A farmers market on Main Street.

I love pop-ups because they break the routine. Because they’re temporary. I love ‘em because of their “pop.”

But you know me.

I also love pop-ups because billion-dollar industries leverage the same, simple blueprint. We’ll get to one of those in a moment, but before we do…

Here are THE 4 ingredients that I think you need in place to cook up a pop-up that crushes it...

4 keys to great pop-up biz’s

1. Eyeballs

Seeing is believing. Below, we’ll look at a billion-dollar biz that started when someone literally saw an opportunity.

The most successful pop-ups are easily seen, too. Offer the right amount of visibility and accessibility (online and off), and your chances of financial viability go up and to the right.

2. Right place, right time

Syncing a business with the rhythm of the world around you is an art.

Some of the largest pop-up biz’s successfully aligned themselves with a season, holiday, or event. Choose one, have fun, and watch others come along for the ride.

3. Work smarter, not harder

With pop-ups, speed and preparedness are essential and they translate to cost efficiency.

Advance prep will maximize a brief window of opportunity. (The biz we’re talking about in a moment begins preparations a year in advance.)

4. A killer “pop”

Excuse the oxymoron, but discover the special sauce that’ll make a biz an enduring pop-up. Is it the brand? The experience? The location? The marketing?

That’s what we’re looking at today: a pop-up biz with no tricks, only treats...

A scary-good Biz model

I recently went on the news to discuss shifts in retail businesses and issues with commercial real estate.

Now, with Halloween around the corner, here’s a biz that’s straight up SQUASHED these problems from its DNA by the nature of the fact that it’s a pop-up.

I’m talking, of course, about Spirit Halloween.

It’s legitimately frightening how efficient this business is.

So what’s the magic behind the mask?

The Spirit vision

In 1983, in a California strip mall, business owner Joe Marver transformed his struggling discount apparel store into Spirit Halloween.

It wasn’t a random decision.

Like I said before, Marver was inspired by the sight of a nearby costume shop that saw tremendous success on Halloween.

The move paid off, leading to the expansion of Spirit to 60+ locations over 16 years, an acquisition in 1999, and then growth to more than 1.5k retail locations by 2023 (for reference, Target has 1.95k).

This year, Halloween spending is projected to hit a record-breaking $12.2B, and some have estimated Spirit will be responsible for at least 16% of that.

Right place, right time

Despite only opening its shops for a brief moment, Spirit prepares year-round to pounce.

The team begins the hunt for next year’s pop-up locations every November 1st, looking for vacant high-population, high-visibility spots they can rent for 3-month periods.

How Spirit works smarter

Spirit’s business model allows for extremely cost-effective inventory management that Nike and Macy’s would be jealous of.

Didn’t sell out of Batman costumes this year? Not a problem, just save the rest for next year since they’ll still be in style.

Spirit’s Killer “pop”

If one of these two things ever happens to your business, you’ve got runway:

Your name becomes a verb ("Google it", "We'll just Uber")
You’re brand becomes a meme (in a good way)

Every year, like clockwork, Spirit Halloween memes plaster social media.

One version pokes fun at Spirit taking advantage of literally any closure…

… And another is these satirical Spirit Halloween costume kits:

It might be hard to believe if you’re over the age of 35, but these kinds of memes can do numbers for a business.

6 pop-up biz’s I’ve seen work

Listen, I don’t expect anyone here to start another 1.5k-store Halloween shop, especially not myself.

But here are some other pop-up models I’ve seen work that might inspire you in one way or another:

Pop-up restaurants: An empty spot today is a culinary (and Instagram) hotspot tomorrow. Did you see those kids turn an inside joke into the most exclusive table in New York City?
Pumpkin patches: I’ve shared tips for buying land for camping, but a biz involving pumpkins works, too. Carving. Weighing. Photos. It just never ends with these goddamn pumpkins...
Mariah Carey: Yes, Mariah Carey is a seasonal business, with her most profitable quarter, by far, coming in Q4.
Van Gogh: A chain of immersive Van Gogh exhibits has sold MILLIONS of tickets in the past few years, translating to $250M in revenue. Are you kidding me?
Fitness bootcamps: Empty warehouse? It’s a trendy gym in disguise.
Swimming pools: Listen, I’ve said I don’t think this biz would work well in a recession, but I think in the right market, people’s swimming pools can make for incredible “pop-ups”.

Find ways to offer unique, short-lived opportunities, and you might have a winner.

We’re 75% done with 2023…

For the builders reading this, study the opportunities around you this season. In a year or two, maybe you’ll be the one running the corn maze and not the one lost in it.

Regardless, make an effort this fall to launch a “pop-up” or two.

Organize a BBQ for your neighborhood. Bake a batch of cookies for colleagues. Help your kid with a lemonade stand. Add some spice to the lives of those around you.

Just please, not the pumpkin kind.

Adelante = always moving forward

- Codie

🤔 Where do fonts come from? This one business, mostly...

⛹️‍♀️ Expect many more investments in women's sports. Here's the latest.

🛩️ Interesting... Will the rise of weight loss drugs save airlines millions?

😴 This startup is building a device that "stabilizes lucid dreams."

⚔️ Here's a great thread about epic ad wars between brands.

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Contrarian Thinking - 👻 The $1B+ biz open 3 months a year

Don’t be scared by this biz model

Today in 5 minutes or less, you'll learn:

Contrarian Framework: Find your “pop”