Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - An unexpected surge

US President Joe Biden touted powerful new jobs data as evidence that “Bidenomics” has driven America clear of the pandemic while maintaining employment at near record levels. Jobs unexpectedly surged in September—almost double what was expected—yielding yet more evidence of America’s remarkably durable labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 336,000 last month—the most since the start of the year—after sizable upward revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 3.8%, and wages rose at a modest pace. But the surprising vigor of the job market suggests companies remain confident about their sales prospects, and while the pace of hiring has cooled since last year, its resilience remains a key source of strength for household spending and the broader economy. For the Federal Reserve, the labor market’s strength threatens to hinder progress on curbing inflation. And that’s the other side of the coin, since the central bank may see this as an excuse to raise rates again. On Wall Street, Treasuries extended a selloff that’s pushed up yields in the past month, which in turn threatens to drive up borrowing costs and then, well, you get the picture. Traders boosted bets on a Fed hike by year-end. —David E. Rovella

Biden has based his re-election campaign in large part on low unemployment. He’s also made no bones about his support for organized labor, going so far as to visit a United Auto Workers picket line—a first for an American president. And the UAW, the latest union to see significant traction in post-pandemic efforts for better pay and benefits, is gaining more ground. On Friday, the union announced it was giving Ford, General Motors and Stellantis a break from new walkouts as contract talks progress. UAW President Shawn Fain said his union was prepared to expand its strike to a GM plant in Arlington, Texas, but reached a last minute deal with the carmaker to include workers at a new battery joint venture in a new labor contract. “We don’t strike for the hell of it,” Fain said. “GM has agreed to lay the foundation for a just transition” to the age of electric vehicles.

Economics arguably dictates that it’s way past time for the International Monetary Fund to pull the plug on Argentina. Over the past five years, the IMF has lent $43 billion in repeated bailouts for the South American nation—multiples more cash than anyone else has gotten—with dismal results. On the eve of a pivotal presidential vote, Argentina has 124% inflation and its economy is in deep recession again. The latest IMF program, like so many predecessors, has essentially collapsed.

Quant hedge fund Two Sigma Investments said it put a researcher on leave after the employee tampered with the $60 billion firm’s models. “One of our researchers engaged in intentional misconduct by circumventing our modeling practices,” the firm wrote in a letter to investors Friday. Preliminary results from Two Sigma’s review suggest the actions led to “gains to some client portfolios and losses to others.”

Investigators at a key US regulator have concluded that the co-founder of Voyager Digital broke derivatives regulations before the failed crypto lender plunged into bankruptcy last year. Voyager’s collapse was one of biggest events in a wild 2022 that culminated with the implosion of crypto trading giant FTX. The industry is still reeling, and FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s criminal trial began this week in New York.

A longtime executive of Donald Trump’s real-estate company admitted that he regularly included fake mansions and valued rent-stabilized apartments as market rate when calculating the former president’s net worth, wrapping up the first week of a civil fraud trial in Manhattan that could take a big chunk out of Trump’s business interests. Meanwhile, the twice-impeached Republican frontrunner is trying to slow or stop four other cases—prosecutions all—for dozens of felonies tied to alleged accounting fraud, mishandling of state secrets and subverting American democracy. 

Trump Organization Controller Jeffrey McConney in lower Manhattan on Nov. 1. He testified Friday as part of New York’s tax fraud lawsuit against the Trump Organization. Photographer: Seth Wenig/AP

Russia allowed a return to seaborne exports of diesel just weeks after imposing a ban that roiled global markets. The single largest seaborne exporter of diesel-type fuels, the move by Russia will be a relief to importers since it slapped a near-total ban on deliveries Sept. 21. That followed a surge in domestic fuel costs that stoked inflation—a potential problem for a Kremlin worried about unrest.

Jailed Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded this year’s Nobel Peace Prize for her fight against the oppression of women and her efforts to promote human rights and freedom. Mohammadi, 51, has continued her struggle even after the regime in Tehran convicted her five times and sentenced her to a total of 31 years in prison, as well as 154 lashes, the Oslo-based Norwegian Nobel Committee said in a statement Friday. She is the second Iranian woman to be awarded the prize after human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi in 2003. She’s also the fifth person to receive the accolade while under arrest.

Narges Mohammadi in 2007 Photographer: Behrouz Mehri/AFP/Getty Images

• The Australian billionaire Trump allegedly spilled nuclear secrets to.
• Tory tax hikes likely to be the biggest on record in the UK.
• Amid tensions over activist’s murder, Canada joins India-hosted summit.
• The 5% bond market means pain is heading everyone’s way.
• Bloomberg Opinion: Exxon looks to future-proof its business with shale.
• Blackstone made billion-dollar bet on Reese Witherspoon. It fell short.
• Beer and snacks stocks are being sold off. Why, do you ask? Ozempic.

This time Eric Adams isn’t even in town. The New York City mayor was publicly excoriated for failing to give enough warning to his 8.4 million constituents before last week’s maelstrom of rain and wind—and then again for blaming them for not paying enough attention. That storm swamped Gotham’s elderly infrastructure with near-unprecedented ferocity. Now another one is coming, and the embattled Democrat is on a tour of Latin America. Heavy rain could again trigger flash flooding as the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe merge with a weather front coming in from the west.

Rain pours onto a subway platform in New York City on Sept. 29. Multiple New York City subway lines were shut and streets inundated after torrential rain pelted the metropolitan area. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Get the Bloomberg Evening Briefing: If you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here to receive Bloomberg’s flagship briefing in your mailbox daily—along with our Weekend Reading edition on Saturdays.

Bloomberg’s Technology Transformation & the Strategic C-Suite: Join us in New York on Nov. 2 as CFOs and other senior leaders in corporate finance and operations gather for a special evening briefing on the ways they can transform and amplify the impact of their departments. New York: Register here.