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October 7, 2023
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Why does it still take so long to transfer money?
If you've ever wondered why it still takes multiple business days for a bank transfer to be completed in the US, you are not alone.

Tech advancements in the last few decades have led to the development of computers that fit in our pockets, tools that can modify genes, and AI that can generate endless forms of new content. Yet, the issue of facilitating electronic payments in real time remains to be solved.

This isn't because the technological prowess for doing so doesn't exist. In fact, over 80 countries have already introduced some form of an instant payments scheme.

And in July 2023, the Federal Reserve launched its FedNow Service, bringing a new instant payment rail to the US. This was a highly anticipated moment for the payments industry, as FedNow represents the first new payment rail operated by the Fed in over 50 years.

But in the US, sending payments in real time isn't new.

In 2017, The Clearing House launched its Real Time Payments (RTP) Network, which, like FedNow, also settles payments instantly and operates 24/7, 365 days a year. Instant wire transfers through FedWire have also existed for decades, and push-to-card capabilities have been introduced by leading networks like Visa and Mastercard.

This means that FedNow will have to compete with many money-movement options for utilization and long-term adoption. We also can't forget about traditional payment means, such as by cash, check, card, or the Automated Clearing House.

Whether FedNow will take significant share from other payment rails remains to be answered, but observing the trends of other payment schemes suggests it will not be substitutive for now.
 
Click to see the full, two-decade chart in the research.

Take cash for example. Despite the availability of several electronic payment options, demand for cash is far from dead. US currency in circulation has more than doubled in the past two decades, highlighting the value still given to physical currency.

Though widespread adoption of the FedNow and RTP rails remains to be seen, the onset of new money-movement capabilities certainly creates new opportunities.

We see these opportunities for infrastructure providers that help banks connect to payment rails, fintech companies building end-user applications leveraging instant payments, and anti-fraud technologies that help mitigate the fraud naturally arising with faster payments.

If you want to learn more, our latest note unpacks FedNow and US payment schemes in greater detail and outlines where instant payment opportunities lie.

Download it here: Time for Real Time
 
Best,

Rudy Yang
Senior Analyst,
Emerging Technology Research
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First look at Q3 VC data shows little sign of dealmaking uptick
Globally, venture capital remains in a holding pattern.

Exits aren't happening, so capital isn't being returned, which is keeping fundraising low. Dealmaking still hasn't decided if it's at a bottom, as Q3 was rather mundane.

Instacart and Klaviyo completed IPOs last quarter, which gave a bit of a boost to exit value in general terms, but it is yet to be determined if the IPO window is, in fact, opening. Both companies were valued below their previous private round—in Instacart's case, by a large margin.

The challenge for companies now is to decide which move sets up future success as the event horizon nears. The market has continued moving into deep investor-friendly territory, and we've seen down-rounds pick up.

However, M&A has also struggled, especially for larger price tags. The public markets have gone through a summer slump, are facing possible further rate-hike volatility, and, in the US, a government shutdown looms that would freeze even the ability for companies to file paperwork for a new listing.

The outlook ahead remains muddled. The likelihood is that there is no breakout movement for dealmaking, even if exits begin to pick up materially. Investors and LPs still feel the sting of the quick slide in valuations.

More likely is a new normal. A shifting of risk capital.

Southeast Asia, India, and Japan look to capture capital flows that had been set for China. Middle Eastern countries continue to increase their exposure to the venture strategy in the US and Europe. And the US and Europe look at a reset of expectations for venture amidst a very different macro climate from the past decade.

Download our First Look XLS files for more Q3 data
 
Best,

Kyle Stanford, CAIA
Lead Research Analyst, Venture Capital
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Thematic Research  

Sizing a VC Fund in Modern Times

For VC funds, bigger isn't always better.

Landing on the right size for a new VC fund isn't like how it used to be, where GPs made the rounds with LPs and raised the most they could.
 
The playbook for sizing a VC fund is changing.

Sizing nowadays involves using more predictive modeling tools, strategizing on portfolio diversification, and weighing up due diligence.

As deal sizes and valuations shrink, larger managers may have to recalibrate their 2024 funds downward:
read the free research
 

E-Commerce VC Trends Deep Dive

In new research this week, we looked at trends within e-commerce's 23 market categories to get a closer look at the segments driving dealmaking and exit activity.

We found three categories had median valuation step-ups of 2.8x or higher, while, across the sector, 14% of all VC deals were down rounds:
read the free research
 
 
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In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • The market for private lending has grown from roughly $500 billion in 2021 to around $1.75 trillion in 2022. [The New York Times]

  • "Game development is risky. Outsize returns come from a small collection of games, but it is very hard to pick those games at an early stage." [Bloomberg]

  • When it comes to crypto, VC investors are "proceeding with caution." [Reuters]

  • 5 ways the digital health industry will change as a result of weight loss drugs. [MedCity News]

  • Global VC continues to stumble, but Europe has shown relative strength. [TechCrunch+]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
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More of our recent research:

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