Aftermath

The Story

The fog of war is complicating an already complex situation.

What’s fog of war?

The term refers to uncertainty during wartime. In the context of the latest Israel-Hamas war, it’s playing out through misinformation, disinformation, and conflicting narratives. This week, Palestinian health officials said hundreds are believed to be killed after an explosion at a hospital in northern Gaza. Hamas blamed an Israeli airstrike, calling it “a horrific massacre.” Israel blamed Palestinian Islamic Jihad — another militant group in the region — calling it a failed rocket launch. The news enraged the region with protests spreading across the Middle East and Jordan canceling a planned meeting with President Biden. Now, the White House says it’s continuing to collect information, but that its current assessment is that Israel was “not responsible.”

What’s the assessment based on?

Infrared satellite data, intercepted communications provided by Israel, and open source information showing a launch that didn’t come from Israel. That includes assessments that the alleged crater in the parking lot of the hospital was inconsistent with impacts from Israeli airstrikes. Still, Biden noted that “there's a lot of people out there” who are “not sure” about who’s responsible. Media outlets have not been able to independently verify material — like video and audio — indicating who’s behind the hospital explosion.

Why is it hard to verify?

Multiple reasons. Misinformation and disinformation is running rampant on social media platforms, as tech layoffs cut back on the number of fact checkers. Plus, even without that complication, the process can take time. But it's important to get it right, especially given the stakes and how things have played out in the past.

Meaning what?

In 2022, Israel claimed that militants were to blame for the death of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh but eventually took responsibility about a year later. Meanwhile, the Associated Press last year said it verified an Israeli assessment that Islamic Jihad rockets fell within Gaza, killing at least a dozen Palestinians. AP verified the assessment through TV footage and onsite visits. Then, there's the US government — which has its own history of flawed assessments that have led to war.