Seven weeks into his Presidency, Trump is being hoisted on his own petard. Trump is only President because he was lucky enough to run during a period of global inflation that gave voters skeptical of his motivations and character a reason to take a chance on him. He was perfectly positioned for this moment, because he had a national brand as a businessman thanks to his long stint on reality television and the fact that his first term in office was defined by the economy that Obama rebuilt after the previous Republican President.

Well, thanks to economic storm clouds borne entirely of his chaotic leadership style and disastrous policy choices, Trump’s political honeymoon is over. His entire agenda is now at risk because of the economy.

On Sunday, I published a piece (I know you all read it) about how Trump was damaging the economy. Well, things got much worse. Hours after I hit send, Trump appeared on Fox News. Maria Bartiromo asked Trump “Are you expecting a recession this year?”

Bartiromo is a Trump superfan and she was trying to throw a slow pitch over the middle for Trump to take a swing at, but Trump refused to rule out a recession:

I hate to predict things like that,.There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing, and there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.

Trump wasn’t following the playbook because on Meet the Press that same morning, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick declared that there was “no chance” of a recession. The markets took Trump’s vote of no confidence in the economy literally. Monday and Tuesday were brutal days on Wall Street. Stocks have been down almost 10% in a matter of weeks. 

Trump made things worse on Tuesday when he announced a fresh round of tariffs on steel and aluminum. As a result, markets plunged again.

There is no question about the cause:

JPMorgan Chase said Monday that the likelihood of a recession had risen to 40% from 30% owing to “extreme U.S. policies.

For the first time since Trump took office, the economy is now the number one story in the country. It is dominating news coverage — and more importantly it's becoming central to the conversation on social media platforms like TikTok.

That’s very bad news for Trump.

Why the Market Crash Matters

The stock market is not a great indicator of the political health of the economy. The market did quite well during the Biden years, even as voters were quite displeased about higher prices for gas, groceries and housing. I remember focus groups in years right after the Great Recession when voters were pulsating with rage over how quickly the stock market bounced back while the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high. But the stock market can have an outsized political effect. Like gas prices, the changes in the stock market are hard to miss. The day-to-day change is covered on every news broadcast. Most news websites have the Dow Jones Industrial average on the front page. ...