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Measuring Future Failure

Pallas Athene; Gustav Klimt; 1898

There are a thousand ways to sort NBA teams when previewing the a season. Folks will do straight-up rankings 1-30, or separate teams into tiers. Sometimes, analysts will focus in only on contenders, and try to determine which ones are real and which are not.

Those are all valid, and I’ve done that in prior years. What I’m thinking about as we approach the 2023-24 season is what failure would be for each of the 30 teams. In other words, what’s the best outcome — in terms of playoff participation and the standings — that would still be disappointing when the season wraps up, based on where the teams are now.

Let’s take a look. Obviously, the further up the ladder you start, landing in a much lower bucket will be especially painful.

No Disappointment Possible

Teams for which there are no expectations to do anything but develop young players and set up for another high draft pick.

Portland Trail Blazers
Washington Wizards
San Antonio Spurs

I happen to think the Spurs will be more competitive than last season and could even stick around the play-in race. But I also don’t think that failing to meet that level will mark a disappointing season or anything. I think fans and possibly front office leaders in Portland and Washington want their teams to be among the three worst in the league.

Being Out of the Play-in Mix

Teams for which not being in the race for a play-in spot in the second half of the season would be a disappointment.

Charlotte Hornets
Detroit Pistons
Brooklyn Nets
Utah Jazz

These are teams that I think based on 2022-23 performance, roster structure, 2023 offseason moves and general preseason vibes would have some consternation about ending up with a bottom-5 record. Keep in mind that only four teams — the Pistons, Spurs, Rockets and Hornets — were truly not in the play-in race late in the season last year. You don’t have to be all that good to be, like, 12th in the conference.

The Nets are an odd team in this conversation because they owe their first round pick to the Rockets. They are not necessarily built to compete, but they have no incentive to tank.

The Jazz remain a question mark. They traded starters to fellow West playoff hopefuls at the trade deadline last season while in the play-in mix. But they also traded for John Collins and extended Jordan Clarkson. But to be a bottom-5 team, I think something will have to have gone wrong.

Missing the Play-in

Not making the play-in — or finishing top-10 in the conference — would be a disappointment

Orlando Magic
Indiana Pacers
Houston Rockets

I feel like it’s impossible to set reasonable expectations for the Rockets given their status in recent years and the investment they made this summer. Is there a playoff mandate here? Or is the play-in enough? I know that less than 33 wins or so — which would slot a team into the “out of the play-in race” category — is probably a failure, so this feels like the right space for them.

Orlando has a good amount of hype. They did last year too, and that hype survived a month or two. Sustain it longer, please! 10th in the East is not a particularly crazy demand.

The Pacers hung around until injuries (or “injuries”) took them out of the play-in race. Maybe this is slightly too aggressive a standard for Indiana given how young most of the key players are. But I also don’t think a Tyrese Haliburton-led team should be below 33 wins.

Missing the Playoffs

Getting ejected in the play-in or earlier is bad.

Toronto Raptors
Dallas Mavericks
New Orleans Pelicans
Atlanta Hawks
Oklahoma City Thunder

Fun fact: only one of these teams (Atlanta) actually made the playoffs last season. So there is going to be some major disappointment, from these teams or those above them. Please also note that I have 20 teams at this level or better, and 16 teams make the playoffs, and there’s always a surprise or two.

I toyed with the idea of bumping the Mavericks and Hawks up an additional level — that making the playoffs and getting ejected in the first round would actually be a disappointment. I’m open to that potentiality. But I also think that winning a playoff round in their current states is a really tough ask, and I don’t think that’s a fair baseline. Even though both teams were fairly recently in the conference finals. Bizarre teams!

This might be a little aggressive for the Thunder, but the hype is so rampant.

Losing in the First Round

Win a round or be sad.

Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
Sacramento Kings
Chicago Bulls
Minnesota Timberwolves

We have three teams that lost in the first round last year, one team that won its first round series and a team that missed the playoffs entirely. That team — the Bulls — have been quite static and need to justify what they are doing. That means making the playoffs and doing something in them, in my mind. Otherwise, it’s time to pivot.

The Knicks won a round last year, so you don’t want to go backwards (which “losing in the first round” would constitute). But I also don’t get the sense that there is a mandate to do more. Is this a conference finals team in the eyes of anyone but the most irrational fan? I’m not there.

The other teams are relatively young and need to see progress. I think the pressure is highest for Cleveland given Donovan Mitchell’s future, but I also know there would be a good amount of gruff if Sacramento falls early again or Minnesota doesn’t take a step forward. Keep in mind too that missing the playoffs is possible for both teams and would be a massive disappointment.

Missing the Conference Finals

You have to escape the second round at minimum

L.A. Clippers
Philadelphia 76ers
Memphis Grizzlies

We know that the Clippers have been to the conference finals once in all of eternity. I think given the failures and troubles since then, getting back would mark a successful season, even if that’s not what anyone had in mind back in 2019.

You know the story on the Sixers. Second round fail after second round fail. Just get past that and most is forgiven.

Memphis is quietly in a weird zone: three straight playoffs, two straight 50-win seasons with a young core … one playoff series victory in that time. But I don’t think advancing to the second round will be quite enough here. I think they need to assert themselves as a legitimate West contender in the playoffs to feel like the right path is laid out.

Losing in the Conference Finals

Not making the NBA Finals is falling short

[no teams]

This is a pretty weird gap in most years, I feel. It’s rare that “making the Finals” is a baseline expectation for a team. If you can make it, you should think you can win it! I guess this category becomes more relevant in eras when there is a clear superpower or two in the other conference, like during the Warriors dynasty. In that case, a franchise like the Raptors would have been satisfied to just get past the Cavaliers and lose in the Finals. Funny enough that after LeBron left, Toronto did make that leap … and then went ahead and won the Finals anyway.

Not Winning the Championship

Anything less than a title is a seen as a failure

Boston Celtics
Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors
L.A. Lakers
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
Phoenix Suns

I don’t think this qualifies as the definitive list of NBA championship contenders this season — some of these teams in particular (Golden State and Miami, and perhaps L.A.) are not quite to the level of the others, but have the level of success over the past decade that requires a title to have had a successful season. Getting to the Finals isn’t enough. The standard is higher.

This is obviously a huge bucket of teams going for it all … which I think is good for the NBA. There isn’t a hegemon (sorry Denver) so various franchises feel like they have a path. It makes for a lot of compelling regular season watching, in my view: every time these teams face each other is important. And when added with the number of teams that need to advance at least round in the playoffs to feel like the season is a success, it should make for quite a rowdy postseason.

What do you think? Are any of these preseason expectations too harsh? Too light?

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