Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Fed on the mountaintop

US markets have been sending a pretty clear message of late. More bets are signaling that the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates to rein in inflation—and that’s spurred a big November rally for stocks. With new data indicating price surges are ebbing and the economy slowing just as the Fed intended, some of the more optimistic investors are even putting wagers on a rate cut for early next year. With Team Recession in retreat, it’s not just Wall Street that’s hopeful Fed Chair Jerome Powell has accomplished his soft landing. The head of the world’s largest retailer has predicted consumer prices could soon drop. “We may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” Walmart Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon said during the company’s earnings call.

But all of the good macro-economic news hasn’t managed to trickle down into the day-to-day realities of many American consumers, at least not yet. After two years of punishing price increases triggered by the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, US shoppers are being more cautious, seeking out discounts and deals. And of course the inflation battle isn’t being won uniformly. Florida residents aren’t seeing the let-up that others are, and the continuing influx of newcomers in that state is driving up housing costs (while fueling a booming economy). Miami’s inflation is now 7.4%—more than double the US average. But Florida aside, Fed officials are dutifully trying to temper expectations, cautioning that sticky inflation could mean more tightening—though many on Wall Street aren’t buying it. In South America, the economic outlook for a battered Argentina is far more complicated. Voters there will elect a new president on Sunday as the country grapples with triple-digit inflation, a plummeting currency and a possible sixth recession in a decade. In Europe, the picture isn’t as grim, but certainly less than pleasant. The sputtering economy there has traders betting on a faster pace of interest rate cuts next year.

The Israeli military raided Shifa hospital, the biggest in Gaza, and has been seeking to substantiate its claims that Hamas had a major command center below it, something Hamas has denied. Even as Israel’s assault appeared to be moving south, Hamas’s network of tunnels remained a central focus, as Israeli forces search of more than 200 hostages as well as Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who lulled Israel into believing the militant group was no longer a threat. The Biden administration, while publicly backing Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 attacks, is getting increasingly frustrated with Israel’s conduct of the war. Gaza health officials report Israel has killed more than 11,000 Palestinians, or 1 out of every 200 residents of Gaza.

Expectations were low for the first meeting in a year between President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but the two men emerged with a handful of small gestures toward decreasing US-China tensions. The two struck deals to combat fentanyl and restore high-level military communications–and Xi later agreed to send pandas back to the US. Biden, however, underscored the limits of the rapprochement, and whether the pleasantries will last remains an open question.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping Photographer: Doug Mills/The New York Times

Fallout from Elon Musk’s online endorsement of antisemitic views continues to spread, with Tesla investors slamming the world’s richest person and more advertisers fleeing his troubled social media platform. “We condemn this abhorrent promotion of antisemitic and racist hate in the strongest terms,” White House spokesman Andrew Bates said. Still, Musk’s SpaceX remains a key part of the American space program (not to mention a recipient of US taxpayer dollars) and is poised to launch its Starship rocket Saturday, a critical test after another version of the vehicle exploded in April. Also, SpaceX’s satellite internet service, Starlink—the subject of controversy since Musk cut off access to Ukraine’s forces—is discussing an initial public offering as soon as next year. 

After multiple false starts over the past two decades, New York City is finally ready to launch a congestion pricing program next year, with the aim of funding subway upgrades, easing Manhattan traffic and clearing the air a bit (that is, if lawsuits by neighboring New Jersey don’t block it). In Indonesia, the government will limit ground water use to conserve the resource and slow the sinking of its cities, including the capital of Jakarta. Speaking of water: A secretive hedge fund manager has gone into deep-sea prospecting, using robots to scour the ocean floor in search of Spanish galleons and Nazi gold.

Almost half of Americans are expected to travel between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day, and for those making the journey by plane, you’ll have at least a 1 in 5 chance of being delayed. But don’t despair, airlines are more prepared this year, and we also have some travel tips. If you find yourself in these seven locations, you can eat at some of the world’s best restaurants. And whether you’re guesting or hosting this season, consider popping open a wine from Sicily’s Mount Etna. 

Vineyards in the Mount Etna region of Sicily Photographer: barmalini/iStockphoto

• Here’s the investors guide to this weekend’s Argentina election.
• German, Italian leaders bury political differences to tackle migration.
• OPEC+ meeting; Saud Arabia likely to extend supply cut.
• US financial markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. 
• India hosts virtual G20 meeting, last under its chair. 

Huawei's Mate 60 Pro represents a tech breakthrough the US had been working furiously to stop. It’s powered by a Chinese semiconductor with 7-nanometer technology, a generation beyond where Americans set up their tech blockade. State media in China trumpeted the accomplishment and critics of Biden declared US tech sanctions a failure. Yet the situation may be more complicated than it appears. Nevertheless, in When Huawei Shocked America With a Smartphone, Bloomberg Originals reveals why—regardless of the reasons behind it—the US effort looks to be falling short.

Watch: China’s Chipmaking Surprise, from Bloomberg Originals