Good morning! The Indian Express reports that borrowers are now scamming predatory loan apps to issue easy money. For ₹300 ($4), people can buy “information packs” via Telegram, which include forged government-issued ID cards, a text message folder, a contact list, and a photo gallery full of AI-generated images. Once bought, all they have to do is load this fake info on a secondary, clean phone and apply for loans to the tune of ₹5,000-20,000 ($60-240). To quote the great Michael Scott, “how the turn tables…” 

🎧 Loan app scammers get a taste of their own medicine. Also in today’s edition: the complexity of the Uttarakhand tunnel rescue operation. Listen to The Signal Daily on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Jaideep Vaidya and Adarsh Singh also contributed to today’s edition.

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The Market Signal 

Stocks & Economy: Asian stocks were a mixed bag in morning trade while Japanese markets were closed for Workers’ Day holiday. 

Despite a rally in US stocks, Asia remained tentative. US stocks rose after a brief pause as more investors continued to bet on the economy cooling and interest rates not rising any further. Moreover, bears will hesitate as the Federal Reserve’s soft pedalling on interest rates has put them in a bind. Several hedge funds that had taken short positions in European and US equities were caught with their pants down when markets rallied. The rally is estimated to have cost them $43 billion. 

Buoyed by IT, oil and gas, power, and consumer goods stocks, Indian equity indices rose on Wednesday. Early GIFT Nifty trades hinted at a flat open with a negative bias. 

Meanwhile, rising defaults indicated that stress was building up in European lenders, the European Central Bank warned. 

COMMODITIES

‘Maha’ Prices

It might be time to tighten your purse strings. Drought-like conditions in Maharashtra will likely shrink the production of key kitchen staples such as onions, pulses, sugar, cereals, fruits, and vegetables. Reservoir levels are down 20% now compared with this time last year.

Maharashtra’s agriculture department estimates that climate change cost the state 36 million hectares of crops in the last five years.

Government’s dilemma: That puts the central government in a fix. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will not like prices climbing in 2024, an election year. Supply constraints will push up prices, which will likely force the Reserve Bank of India’s hand on interest rates. The government has tried to keep domestic cereal and sugar prices cool by curbing exports. But its options will be limited if prices of several items rise simultaneously. It will also strain public finances to artificially keep prices low, an inefficient strategy anyway. 

SEMICONDUCTORS

Wrapper War

Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden might have partly buried the hatchet, but the China-US commercial rivalry continues unabated. 

The new frontier: Semiconductor packaging. That is, the casing in which chips are wrapped in and connected to the devices they help power. Innovations in packaging technology help combine different kinds of chips in one casing, improving efficiency and reducing the need to power everything with advanced semiconductors. Shortage of a kind of packaging is what is crimping the production of Nvidia’s AI chips. 

The US is preparing a $3 billion National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program to compete with China. Incidentally, American firm Micron’s planned $2.75 billion back-end facility in India is a packaging unit. Packaging tech is a strategic priority for Beijing, too.

It’s a race: The US cannot put curbs on Chinese packaging because it is the world leader, and restrictions will disrupt supply chains. 

CORPORATE 

Ctrl + Altman + Enter

AI’s golden boy has returned to the building, literally. The Information (TI) reports that OpenAI executives and staffers partied after the company reinstated Sam Altman as CEO. Company president Greg Brockman is back. Presumably, so are the 700+ employees who had threatened to walk out.

The compromise: According to TI, Altman and Brockman won’t get back their board seats and neither will chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, who’d helped oust the duo. The reinstated CEO has also agreed to an internal investigation into his conduct that had prompted his dismissal. Reuters reports that staff researchers had expressed worry to the board about a “superintelligence” breakthrough before the drama.

The only member of the old board that remains is Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo. Tasha McCauley and Helen Toner—who’d butted heads with Altman—have been replaced by former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor and former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

The Signal

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella remains the winner. Altman & Co. may no longer head an advanced AI research division in his company, but Microsoft will get one or more OpenAI board seats, and/or representation as a board observer. The new board may have nine directors in all.

OpenAI will retain its non-profit structure, but the make-up of the new board signals that the for-profit division may no longer be a sacrificial lamb. The battle for OpenAI was a battle between science and business. Business won.

As for Altman, he’ll have to repair relationships with wary clients, many of whom were considering defecting to OpenAI’s rivals.

TAXATION

A Confusing Mess

In 2017, when India introduced a single Goods and Services Tax (GST) to replace a complex web of central and state levies, it was hailed as a revolutionary move. Six years later, India Inc. is still struggling to figure it out.

Since 2022, the GST authorities have sent over 20,000 notices to companies regarding tax payment irregularities, per The Economic Times. As a result, several mergers and acquisitions have been delayed, with many companies challenging the notices in court. The companies say there’s no clarity on why and how the tax is being levied. 

Most recently, foodtech majors Zomato and Swiggy received notices worth ₹500 crore ($60 million) each. The issue is whether delivery charges should be taxed.

Meanwhile, the income tax department has sent notices to 45 online retailers that sell goods via social media platforms for tax evasion totalling ~₹10,000 crore ($1.2 billion). 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Money Laundering Megamind Taken To The Cleaners

For years, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), crypto’s wealthiest man, defied regulators and boasted that Binance had no headquarters. But on Tuesday (US time), the alpha cowboy of crypto’s wild west pleaded guilty to US sanctions and money laundering violations.

CZ is no longer CEO of the world’s largest crypto exchange. He was replaced by Richard Teng. As part of a settlement with the US, CZ must pay $50 million, and Binance must cough up $4.3 billion. It’s one of the largest fines in US corporate history. He may also face an 18-month sentence.

The joke is that November is a cursed month for crypto, although Binance will continue operating; it seemingly has reserves to tide through potential mass withdrawals. But its infamously-opaque corporate structure, which enabled terrorists and drug traffickers, will be no more. Court-appointed monitors will have sweeping powers over the company, meaning shadowy customers may flee to less compliant exchanges.

FYI

Bombshell: The US foiled a plan to kill Sikh separatist and American citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on American soil, the Financial Times reports. India said it was a serious matter and the US had provided its inputs “about organised criminals, gun runners and terrorists”. 

Getting closer: Rescue workers at the collapsed Uttarakhand tunnel hope to clear the last of the debris and free 41 workers trapped inside by early Thursday morning, Reuters reports. 

Caught: Sanjeev Bikchandani’s Info Edge has accused entrepreneur Rahul Yadav of siphoning crores of investor funds into companies run by his wife and other associates. 

Win some, lose some: Barring the iPhone, whose shipments are set to increase by 50%, Apple device sales will fall in India by the end of the year, analysts estimate.

Ready to ride: Tesla may launch the Model Y, an affordable two-door car priced at €25,000 (~$27,000) in India, Moneycontrol reports. 

Split: Textiles firm Raymond Ltd has lost $180 million in market value since chairman Gautam Singhania announced a separation from his wife Nawaz Modi. Modi has accused Singhania of domestic violence and is seeking 75% of his fortune in a settlement. 

Liar, liar: Young borrowers from Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh top the list of fraudulent loan applications in India, credit bureau Experian found. Frauds are most prevalent for loans under ₹50,000 ($600). 

THE DAILY DIGIT

₹4.74 lakh crore

That’s $56 billion. It’s the amount of money that’s expected to be generated by an estimated 3.8 million weddings that will be held in India from November to July, according to the Confederation of All India Traders. (Moneycontrol.com)

FWIW

Black Mamba: That’s the name for the first all-female anti-poaching unit in South Africa. Established in 2013, the unit operates in the Greater Kruger National Park and has managed to completely eliminate rhino poaching within the premises. This feat becomes all the more impressive when you realise that the unit achieved it without using any weapons. While many have flagged safety concerns for these women, they themselves see it as an advantage: poachers never shoot at them knowing they’re weaponless. Cue Queen Bey’s Who run the world?

Meal time: If reading about meat makes you squirm, then scroll ahead. Customers in the US are turning to “exotic” meats as the holiday season kicks in. Items on the menu include antelope, camel, kangaroo, elk, python, bear and alligator. These meats understandably don’t come cheap: a pound of python costs $49.95 and an “exotic meats assortment package” can set you back by $299. For some sellers, these orders can account for 25% of Thanksgiving orders. Why… is a question apparently no one’s asking.

911 for strays: Not all heroes wear capes, some just band together on WhatsApp. The ‘G20 dogs movement’ is one such group. Formed in response to the G20 events in Delhi, when the civic body was rounding up strays, the group has repurposed itself to re-uniting runaway stray dogs with their caretakers in the wake of Diwali. The group has now expanded to 200-odd volunteers spread across the National Capital Region. They collate information about missing dogs and provide shelter to the ones whose original caretakers are not found yet. Wholesome! ✨