Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Peace for now

The fighting in Gaza stopped on Friday, the first major letup in six weeks of ferocious warfare. Just hours later, Hamas released 24 hostages: 13 Israelis, some with dual citizenship and all women and minors, as well as 10 Thai nationals and one from the Philippines. In exchange, Israel released 39 Palestinian prisoners, also women and minors. If all goes as planned over the next three days, Hamas will release a total of 50 of the roughly 240 hostages Israel said it took amid the slaughter of 1,200 people on Oct. 7 and Israel will free a total of 150 prisoners. But Benjamin Netanyahu says the exchange doesn’t signal a change in his pledge not to stop attacking until Hamas is destroyed, despite international outcry over the more than 13,000 people Gaza health authorities said Israel has killed. 

Satellite imagery of a large crowd of people gathered in southern Gaza attempting to flee south along the evacuation corridor on Nov. 17. Source: Bloomberg

An exchange was not inevitable. Families of the hostages have been loudly pushing for their release, forcing it high onto Netanyahu’s agenda. US officials said three Americans would be among those released, though it didn’t appear they were among the first to be let go. Each side will likely use the pause, assuming it holds, to rest their forces, resupply, plan and gather intelligence. But there seems little longer-term hope, given the prime minister’s statements. With Israel now pushing into the south of Gaza—where it told Palestinians to flee—after destroying much of the north, and no indication of Hamas willing to lay down its arms, the threat of a wider war persists. “Don’t hold your breath, given the maximalist goals on both sides,” Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg Opinion. “Even assuming this halt in hostilities can last its intended duration, expect more war.”

Black Friday kicked off the holiday shopping season, and retailers are warning this year might be a bit sluggish. US consumers are starting to become frugal after hanging tough during two years of inflation and higher interest rates. Richer Americans are looking for deals and curtailing their spending, a Bloomberg analysis shows. For others, spending has focused on experiences like travel and concert tickets, the post-Covid lockdown YOLO consumer helping power US growth. But cost-of-living pressures are evident, with more Americans pulling money from their retirement accounts as savings dwindle. These shifts indicate the Fed’s efforts to put the brakes on the economy are working as it aims for a soft landing. That’s also raising hopes that rate cuts might be in store next year to avoid overshooting the runway.

Photographer: Bing Guan/Bloomberg

If the existential debate over artificial intelligence wasn’t enough, add to the mix this week’s drama at OpenAI. Co-founder Sam Altman was fired then rehired as CEO (with a nudge from partner Microsoft). A new board is now being assembled with members that have more traditional business backgrounds rather than the departing figures, some of whom were focused on the grave threats posed by the technology. How else should the board of the best-known generative AI startup look? “The most vocal critics of AI’s dangers have been women and people of color,” writes Parmy Olson for Bloomberg Opinion. “They need a seat at the table.” 

Vladimir Putin has been the only winner of the Israel-Hamas war, as some in the US and European Union begin to ask whether they can go on funding both Israel’s invasion of Gaza and Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. Ukraine’s top general admits his military is in a stalemate with the Kremlin’s invading forces. For Kyiv, that concession comes ahead of some tough months and dwindling military supplies, with winter making it difficult to advance. New NATO member Finland said it will close its one remaining crossing point with Russia if its neighbor continues with a hybrid operation to push asylum seekers its way.

Taiwan’s main opposition parties have launched rival presidential bids after the implosion of a potential alliance aimed at installing a China-friendly government. Meanwhile, Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of technology firm Foxconn, withdrew from the race, ending for now his years-long pursuit of Taiwan’s most-powerful job. China, for its part, will allow citizens from countries including France, Germany and Italy to enter the country without a visa as Beijing attempts to open up amid an economic slowdown. 

If your refrigerator is now stuffed with Thanksgiving leftovers, think about this: Roughly 30% of all food produced for human consumption is wasted, a number that climbs as high as 40% in the US. Almost half of American food waste is generated by households, not restaurants or grocery stores. A staggering 58% of methane emissions escaping from US landfills come from food waste, scientists say. What to do? Start by loving your leftovers, even if you’re among the scores of Americans going into the holidays this year on popular (and appetite shrinking) weight loss drugs.

• US gross domestic product numbers with growth expected to slow.
• Euro area consumer prices data with eyes on ECB policy.
• Delayed OPEC+ meeting after Saudi dismay at production levels.
• UK Global Investment Summit, Rishi Sunak speaks with BTV.
• Some 200 countries gather for the  UN Climate Change Conference.

Carbon capture and storage has been heralded by oil and gas leaders as an effective way to address climate change. But last year, the technology captured just 0.1% of global emissions. Ahead of the upcoming United Nations climate summit in Dubai, or COP28, a Bloomberg Originals mini-documentary Carbon Capture’s Reality Check explores the technology’s potential, its shortcomings and why fossil fuel giants have championed it.

Photographer: Lisa Maree Williams/Bloomberg

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