VC survey: GenAI, geopolitics, and growth

Also: PE giants seize on private credit and insurance for growth opportunities; New research on foodtech, medtech, space tech, and retail fintech...
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The Research Pitch
December 2, 2023
Presented by RSM
The foodtech frontier: Kitchen assembly robots and the impact of GLP-1 drugs were two key topics addressed in our new Foodtech Report. Non-clients can access a free preview of the premium report here.

Space situational awareness: Debris is a growing risk in the world of space tech. We're hosting a webinar on Tuesday to discuss industry trends with executives from Digantara. Read our brief on the growing sector here.

European credit markets: Our LCD team is hosting a live discussion on Wednesday to cover the opportunities and pitfalls expected in the leveraged loan, CLO, private credit, and high-yield bond markets in 2024. More details here.
 
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GenAI, geopolitics, and growth: Findings from our VC/tech survey
Our latest VC Technology Survey, synthesizing views from 72 venture capitalists, reveals an evolving landscape of optimism and strategic shifts in the tech sector.

Investment Outlook: There's growing confidence among investors about an upturn in VC activity in the coming year. Significantly, the path to profitability remains the top concern for investors, but a growing share report product market fit as the next most important criterion. Despite a cautionary stance on overvalued IPOs, there's a budding hope for improved IPO performance, influenced by expected market gains and declining interest rates.

Geopolitical Influences: The survey underscores a heightened awareness of geopolitical risks and the impact of global conflicts. Investors are increasingly wary, leading to a decreased interest in China and a heightened focus on Europe and Latin America.

Sector Highlights: AI continues to dominate as the most promising innovation frontier, particularly generative AI. Biotech is emerging as a significant beneficiary of AI advancements. In contrast, the crypto sector, seen as over-invested, faces skepticism about its growth potential.

To dive deeper into the results, view our complete write-up here: H2 2023 VC Tech Survey
 
Best,

Ali Javaheri
Associate Research Analyst,
Emerging Tech
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For large public PE managers, strength in private credit can't offset slower fundraising
This week, we released our US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup, a quarterly report that extracts insights from the key PE and private credit metrics reported by the largest US-listed alternative asset managers.

We don't try to project earnings per share or make stock calls. There are plenty of Wall Street analysts who provide those services and are very good at what they do.

What we try to do is glean best practices, trends, and observations on the ingredients that go into a successful GP franchise. What's working, what's not.

The public disclosures by these seven large managers also help us confirm the trends we are seeing on the ground that benefit dealmakers and investors in private markets.

Key takeaways from this quarter's report:

• Private credit's share of trailing 12-month fundraising surged to 56% from 50% just three months ago. Meanwhile, PE shrank to 16% from 23%.
 
Private credit's slice of the pie continues to grow.

• Overall fundraising is down 37% in the last 12 months at these seven mega-firms, or about $425 billion in aggregate versus $675 billion in the 12 months ending Q3 2022.

• Private credit is raising money faster than it can issue: A total of $194 billion has been deployed over the last 12 months versus $238 billion in capital raised.

• GP strategic acquirers and stake investors moved to the sidelines in Q3 with just 18 deals involving alt managers. Infrastructure managers were in demand, as seen in deals targeting Stonepeak and Energy Capital Partners.

• Insurance continues to expand as a key client segment and source of perpetual capital, accounting for ~25-50% of TTM inflows for the "Big 3" of Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR. Blackstone has set up a new dedicated insurance segment that includes corporate and real estate credit ($370 billion in combined AUM) and this week KKR bought the remaining stake in insurer Global Atlantic for $2.7 billion, moving all of its $145 billion in AUM into the fold.

• One down and six to go? Blackstone finally broke into the S&P 500 index membership in September. There are three traditional asset managers in the index: BlackRock, T. Rowe, and Franklin Templeton, all have $10 billion or more in market cap. The next six alternative asset managers all exceed $10 billion in size.

For more data and analysis, download the free report: US Public PE and GP Deal Roundup
 
Enjoy the read!

Tim Clarke
Lead Analyst, Private Equity
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Industry & Tech Research  
 
Top VCs are backing AI and biotech amid slowing activity.

Our Emerging Tech Indicator, which covers early-stage deals from a subset of the world's most successful VC firms, dives into the data to showcase the verticals that have been most resilient to a broader downturn.

The report also covers changes in deal terms and includes sector spotlights on healthtech, climate tech, and more:
get the free report
 
 
Medtech dealmaking is back on the rise.

The most active category in Q3? Cardiovascular surgical devices startups, with $488 million in VC funding, followed by cancer diagnostics and surgical robotics.

Our new Medtech Report has all the info on the biggest trends and deals that have the vertical on a strong pace:
read a free preview
 
 
VC deal value in the retail fintech sector rose 53% in Q3 compared to Q2, at $2.4 billion across 149 deals.

While that total is down more than 53% YoY, new opportunities are continuing to emerge, including in products that help underserved customers build credit.

Our new Retail Fintech Report provides the latest data on overall activity, a segment-by-segment breakdown, top deals, most active investors, and more:
read a free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  

PitchBook at JPM 2024

Join us! Our healthcare analyst team will be on-site in San Francisco for the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, which runs from Jan. 8-11.

For PitchBook clients, we're hosting an investor lounge on Jan. 9 where you can network, recharge, refuel, and connect with our analysts for in-person discussions around healthcare services and digital health. More details here.

We're also hosting a pair of webinars that are open to all (registration is free):

Jan. 9: Though multiple biotech subindustries showed promise, setbacks have pushed VC toward new therapeutic applications. Our analyst Kazi Helal will discuss it all with a panel of VC biotech investors. Register here.

Jan. 11: Our team will recap JPM 2024 and share our most important takeaways from the private company-related presentations and discussions. Register here.
 
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • What to watch in Year 2 of the generative AI craze: the ever-improving automation of software development. [Fast Company]

  • Revenue growth at most startups has slowed, meaning valuations will take even longer to achieve—if they ever do. [Business Insider]

  • Why Binance isn't out of the woods. [Reuters]

  • Discussing the viability of regulating roll-ups in the wake of a class-action lawsuit at the intersection of PE and healthcare. [Axios Pro]

  • The uncertain state of US venture capital in China. [TechCrunch]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
 
ICYMI  

More of our recent research (* - report preview):

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Credit research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Global Private Market Fundraising Report
  • Japan Private Capital Breakdown
  • DACH Private Capital Breakdown
  • France Market Snapshot
  • Biopharma: Launch Report*
  • AI & Machine Learning Report*
  • Enterprise SaaS Report*
 

Thanks for reading! Feel free to email us any time with feedback, questions, or tips!

Learn more about the PitchBook Institutional Research Group, meet our analysts, or access our research libraries for clients and non-clients.

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Older messages

New year, new VC?

Friday, December 1, 2023

IBM Ventures on enterprise generative AI; female founders less likely to have advanced degree; behind the scenes on VC fund due diligence Read online | Don't want to receive these emails? Manage

Top GPs' private credit surplus

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Mapping generative AI's dealmaking trends; Kinterra mines $565M for battery metals; KKR ramps up insurance bets Read online | Don't want to receive these emails? Manage your subscription. Log

Medtech primed for strong finish to 2023

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Energy storage startups score mega-deals; Shein's bucks Asia's decline in IPOs; fintech's holiday markdowns Read online | Don't want to receive these emails? Manage your subscription.

Retail fintech holds its ground

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

VC dollars stretch further in downturn; supply chain tech readies for consolidation; hydrogen-electric aircraft developer ZeroAvia lands $116M Read online | Don't want to receive these emails?

Biotech, AI stand out in emerging tech

Monday, November 27, 2023

Breaking down VC in the electric vehicle space; UK markets sail toward calmer waters; will private credit's 'golden age' end? Read online | Don't want to receive these emails? Manage

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