Bloomberg - Evening Briefing - Refusing to go quietly

There have been quite a few metrics of late indicating the US economy is slowing down following the Federal Reserve’s long campaign to rein in inflation. But the robust American labor market isn’t going quietly. Employment and wages increased in November and more people entered the labor force, defying expectations of continued softening as the central bank seeks to stick a soft landing. While this is good news for the American worker, it’s deflating hopes on Wall Street that the Fed will cut interest rates early next year. Over in Europe, rapidly weakening inflation and a feeble economy have raised bets the European Central Bank will slash rates in 2024.

Jerome Powell Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Across America, the good jobs news came with a bonus: wage growth remains strong as inflation continues to slow. But of course that lends to concerns that price pressures might be harder to stamp out. The Fed meets next week with many expecting it will hold interest rates steady. The US economy meanwhile seems on track for that soft-landing Fed Chair Jerome Powell is aiming for. But he shouldn’t take a victory lap just yet, Karl W. Smith writes for Bloomberg Opinion. “The economy’s resilience suggests monetary policy may be broken, having contributed very little—if anything—to the big slowdown in inflation.” 

US President Joe Biden urged Congress to approve additional aid for Ukraine before Christmas as a Republican blockade fuels worries Russia will gain the upper hand in its 21-month war, during which it has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians. The US aid package is part of an almost $106 billion request for emergency funds that also includes support for Israel, money tied to the US southern border and support for US allies in the Pacific. Regarding the latter, China criticized the US after an American warship sailed in disputed waters in the South China Sea. 

Israel’s military said its mission to destroy an estimated 311 miles of Hamas tunnels across the Gaza Strip will take months. With Israel’s bombing campaign continuing, the urban devastation is likely to leave about 2.2 million Palestinians homeless with no answers as to where or how they will be re-homed. The Palestinian Authority is working with US officials on a postwar plan for the region, while arguing that fully destroying Hamas is unrealistic. Vladimir Putin (who said he will seek a fifth term as Russian President) and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi vowed to deepen ties during a meeting in Moscow. The talks with Iran, which backs Hamas, came a day after the Russian leader made a rare visit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both critical of Israel’s destruction of Gaza. Gaza health authorities said Israel has killed at least 17,000 Palestinians during two months of war.

Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ahead of their talks in Riyadh. Photographer: Alexey Nikolsky/Getty Images

Cutting or eliminating the use of fossil fuels, a critical part of any effort to slow global warming, was nevertheless the most contentious topic at the United Nations’ COP28 climate talks. More than 100 countries want an agreement to phase out the use of coal, oil and gas. But top oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia vehemently oppose any such language. UN scientists have warned that greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by at least 43% by 2030 (from 2019 levels) to keep global warming within the 1.5C threshold. The planet is currently on track to warm by 3C at the end of this century, which would be cataclysmic for humans and ecosystems. 

Franchises are notoriously risky. Even still, devotees of a popular brand of fitness studios were told they could collect checks amounting to about $400,000 a year by following the corporate playbook. Now, some who have turned their workouts (and savings) into these Xponential franchises—which include Pure Barre and CycleBar—say they’re bleeding money. Then there’s Pilot Travel Centers, the family-owned gas-station network founded by Jim Haslam that’s in a legal fight with Warren Buffett. 

Office holiday parties have gotten a full makeover. Many companies are replacing champagne and sequins for pickleball lessons and guac-making competitions in an effort to be more inclusive. Wondering where the job growth is? The hottest job in the US pays $80,00 a year—and it doesn’t require a college degree. Wind-turbine service technicians will increase almost 45% over the next decade, the Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts—faster than in any other occupation.

• The Fed, ECB and other central banks report monetary policy decisions.
• Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is poised to be re-elected as Egypt’s president.
• Nobel Prizes are scheduled to be presented.
• Far-right libertarian Javier Milei takes office as president of Argentina.
• COP28 wraps up with negotiations over “unabated” fossil fuels.

Western sanctions on Russian oil aim to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, but they haven’t exactly worked as planned. Instead, they have fostered a lucrative business for scores of difficult-to-trace traders and shipping companies. Moscow’s monthly income from oil exports is greater now than before the war. Bloomberg Investigates set out to uncover the network of ships and intermediaries working to sell the Kremlin's oil while getting rich in the process. In doing so, we discovered Russia’s Shadow Fleet.

The failure of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports can be witnessed in international waters off the Greek coast, where two “shadow fleet” tankers transfer Russian oil. Photographer: Angus Bennett/Bloomberg

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