Hi! With the first-round knockout draws set, I looked at the likely winners of the Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League. Then — get this — I ranked them, in order of the likelihood that they’ll win whatever competition they’re currently in:

Consider this a big ol' bucket of cold water for all the "City are as vulnerable as ever" takes out there. Despite playing against (theoretically) all of the best clubs in the world, Pep Guardiola's team are bigger favorites to win their competition than Liverpool or Aston Villa, both four points ahead of City in the Premier League table, are to win theirs.

In fact, according to data from the site Sports Odds History, City have only had better odds to win the Champions League ahead of the Round of 16 once in the Guardiola era: last season, when they took down the treble. While all of the dropped points make City much less likely to win the Premier League all of a sudden, these odds show that the market isn't too concerned with City's quality of play from here on out.

Also, if you need a last-minute Christmas gift and subscribe to this newsletter and haven’t bought my book yet, may I suggest a copy of Net Gains: Inside the Beautiful Game’s Analytics Revolution? You know what? I may!