Good morning! The success of Chandrayaan-3 was only the beginning. The US and China, embroiled in Cold War 2.0, are launching flagship lunar missions in 2024. With Artemis II, the US will have a manned flight to the moon for the first time since the 1970s, while China’s Chang’e 6 mission will scour the far side of earth’s satellite for scientific samples. Who will come up tops, and why are other countries also gung-ho about lunar missions? Find out below. Also in today’s edition: the best longreads of the week.

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Alex Gilbert

The countdown is on for 2024, which is shaping up as the year of Moon landings.

As many as 12 missions could fly by or land on the Moon in the next 12 months, the most in one year.

Three missions are expected in January alone.

Japan’s SLIM mission is targeting 19 January for its first lunar landing. If successful, it will be only the fifth country to successfully reach the lunar surface after Russia, the United States, China, and India (which landed there in 2023).

Two companies are racing to achieve the first commercial landing on a celestial body. Intuitive Machines and Astrobotic are part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program and represent the growing ambitions of the US commercial space sector.

There are three primary, overlapping reasons for such intense interest in the Moon.

First, the cost of space access continues to decline as the price of launch vehicles and spacecraft systems fall. This opens the market to new participants as lunar missions can cost less than $100 million, as demonstrated by India’s 2023 Chandrayaan-3.

The development of commercial capability, like Intuitive Machines and Astrobotic, is especially exciting as it can allow purely commercial missions or delivery of payloads from nations without their own lunar landing capabilities. 

Indeed, Astrobotic’s mission is carrying small rovers developed by Mexico for that nation’s first lunar mission.

Second, there is intense scientific and economic interest in lunar exploration and resources. The Moon likely has minable water resources, which can be used for in-space refuelling and to support astronauts. Many of 2024’s missions are either directly or indirectly focused on the search for water.

Third, the re-emergence of geopolitical competition has led to significant support for civil space programmes. Competing visions of international cooperation in space, like the United States-led Artemis Accords and the China-led International Lunar Research Station, are rapidly being adopted by many firstcomers to space exploration.

Underscoring this competition, both China and the United States have planned flagship missions in 2024.

In May, China plans to launch the Chang’e 6 mission to return the first scientific samples from the lunar far side. 

Following the successful sample return from the Chang’e 5 mission, Chang’e 6 will further demonstrate China’s ability to operate across all parts of the lunar surface. 

A successful mission will keep the country on track for its goal to land taikonauts by 2030. Notably, the lander will also host instruments from Pakistan, Italy, France and Sweden.

In November, the US plans to launch the Artemis II mission to fly by the Moon carrying a human crew. Artemis II’s four astronauts, including one Canadian, will be the first to leave Earth orbit since the 1970s. 

This mission will lay the groundwork for a crewed return to the lunar surface in 2026 or 2027, with an expectation for continual missions by the end of the decade and establishment of a lunar surface base in the early 2030s.

Beyond these larger missions, several smaller flybys, orbiters, and landers are planned. China is sending a relay satellite that can support future missions to the south pole. 

A Japanese mission is planning a flyby on the way to an asteroid while the private company ispace is attempting to land again after 2023’s near miss.

Perhaps the most exciting of the other missions is NASA’s VIPER rover, which is heading to the lunar south pole. The Moon’s south pole is home to permanently shadowed regions, areas that never receive sunlight and are expected to contain substantial deposits of volatiles like water.

The rover is designed to search for these volatiles, crossing into the shadowed regions to take samples. VIPER is solar powered, however, and so will only be able to briefly operate and explore those areas. 

Nevertheless, it is possible that it could confirm that there are sufficient quantities of ice to support mining operations, unlocking the potential for lunar development this decade.

Not all of these missions will be successful. Even landing on the Moon is a technological challenge, as illustrated by the loss of Russia’s Luna 25 lander in 2023.

Landing is the first major hurdle to securing lunar surface access. With so many commercial and national landing attempts in 2024, the success of even two or three would mark a major technological feat. 

Successful landings, and even lessons learned from failures, will prove that newcomer countries and private industry can reach the Moon.

The culmination of so many missions this year represents the last five years of renewed focus on the Moon. Even with these high-profile missions, the most important developments for lunar development in 2024 are likely to be on Earth.

After years of development, multiple launch vehicles capable of lunar delivery are expected to see their maiden flights. 

Astrobotic’s January mission will be launched on ULA’s Vulcan, Europe’s Ariane 6 is expected to fly mid-year, and Blue Origin’s New Glenn could even reach orbit. All three will expand lunar access.

The most high-profile, however, is SpaceX’s Starship, which reached space in November 2023. An orbital launch attempt is almost certain in 2024. 

Starship is NASA’s human lander for Artemis III, so Starship’s success in 2024 will determine whether human landing is on track for the 2020s.

Next year is also likely to see continued geopolitical progress. India joined the Artemis Accords in 2023, marking a major shift in lunar geopolitics and a success in U.S. diplomacy. 

More countries are likely to join either the Artemis Accords or the International Lunar Research Station in 2024.

Ultimately, the next 12 months could signal that lunar exploration has irreversible momentum. If multiple landers are successful, 2024 will mark the beginning of the modern lunar era.

Alex Gilbert is a fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines and is a PhD student in its Space Resources programme.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.

ICYMI

Christmas 101: Ho ho ho… it's that time of the year. There’s a nip in the air, Christmas lights are on full blast, and Mariah Carey is back with a bang. Speaking of Carey, have you ever wondered why we keep making this joke? As in, why are there no new classic Christmas songs? Where’s a Taylor’s edition for Jingle Bells? In this post, Jadrian Wooten of Monday Morning Economist decodes why there is a lack of new Christmas songs and icons. Wooten notes that the two requirements for making a Christmas classic are copyright and nostalgia. The former is hindering the creation of new songs. The latter is more of a human problem. We’re all suckers for nostalgia and well, it takes time to build that. To understand the economics of Christmas music in detail, go read his piece.

Genie’s out of the milk bottle: In the 1970s, mothers around the world began abandoning mass produced baby formula and flocked back to traditional breastfeeding techniques. But any new mother will tell you how hard it can be to nurse a baby or figure out why the child is unable to breastfeed adequately. It’s a common problem with easy solutions but doctors, unregulated lactation experts, and biomedical device makers have jumped on it with a money-making solution: tongue-tie releases. This story in The New York Times dives into the exploding business of surgically cutting tissue that often ties a baby’s tongue to the mouth, impeding breastfeeding. From being a niche procedure needed by some, it has grown into a commonly recommended surgery that is starting to hurt children around the US. It’s often recommended by lactation experts who aren’t required to have a licence and often diagnose children without even meeting them. Dentists and laser makers are making money off of these surgeries that aren’t even covered by insurance in most cases. Paediatricians warn that parents can get conned into permanently maiming their children when a simple fix could have solved their problems. But will parents ever stop falling for unscrupulous people preying on their anxieties?

Fathers, sons, computers: Most stories of successful innovators follow a similar pattern: a genius at the top waging a lonely battle for the good of humanity with their loyal followers. But the story of IBM, arguably among the most important tech companies in the history of the world, is not one of an Ayn Rand-type hero. Rather, its story of moving from the punch card system to the invention of the electronic computer is that of an acrimonious battle between father and son. This story (and book review) in The Atlantic traces the origins of International Business Machines, founded by Thomas J. Watson Sr., who also invented the IBM Way that offered lifetime employment but a stifling work culture moulded to Sr Watson’s beliefs. Watson Jr. fought his father and broke the mould, taking over the company and steering it into the electronic computing future. He also changed the IBM Way, encouraging employees to air their grievances in public just as he did with his father. His grandsons write that Watson Jr ran IBM like an entrepreneur rather than an heir because he craved his father’s approval. It all went to waste anyway; IBM accidentally gave birth to Microsoft, began losing money, and finally abandoned the IBM Way to survive.

Whales that shake the pond: In markets that otherwise appear calm, there are always some whales barreling away beneath the surface. So it is in the market for US government debt. A group of about 10 hedge funds have an oversize bearing on the market’s stability because of the bets they make, not uncommonly deploying more than 50 times their own money. They bet on the tiny differences in prices between Treasuries—government bonds with less than one-year maturity—and futures. Suresh Sundaresan, a professor at Columbia University, who also worked at Lehman in the 1980s, is considered the guru who spotted this arbitrage opportunity. Since the difference is small, the trades need to be in huge volumes to make sizable profits. The problem with loading up on such huge bets, which, while helping make the market, also become out-of-control wrecking balls in Black Swan events. The central bank has to then step in with public money. That’s what happened in March 2020 when the Federal Reserve intervened to steady the market. Now US regulators are figuring out how to rein these traders in without ruffling the markets, reports Bloomberg. 

Country no match to traders: In their remarkable book, The World For Sale, Javier Blas and Jack Farchy chronicle how the world’s mammoth trading companies such as Glencore, Vitol, Trafigura and many others move commodities all over the globe, controlling who gets what, where, when, and at what cost. They buy and sell oil, gas, metals, cotton, cereals, and other commodities in vast quantities to companies and governments worldwide. Often the value of the trades they enter into and the profits they make are bigger than the GDP of small countries. They have the power to power up or shut down entire economies. After Russia invaded Ukraine, two companies, Geneva-based Gunvor and the Italian Eni, practically switched off Pakistan’s power supply when they diverted liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes meant for the country’s power stations elsewhere. LNG prices surged when the war broke out and suddenly it occurred to the traders that they could make a windfall if they could somehow circumvent their long-term LNG supply contract with Pakistan and sell the gas to buyers willing to pay several times more. That is exactly what they did, according to Bloomberg. The story of the alleged deception that plunged the country into darkness and shut down economic activity in large swathes is fascinating. 

Save the locals: Did you know that Hawaii, home to scores of indigenous species found nowhere else in the US—leave alone the earth—is the extinction capital of the world? We learnt that after reading this ground zero report in Vox. From the critically endangered Achatinella fulgens (whose captive population is just 60) to the Hawaiian petrel and Newell’s shearwater, the island’s species are contending with the inevitable as overtourism, invasive species, and climate change deal triple blows. The US’ Endangered Species Act has played a critical role in preventing total wipeouts, but it’s not enough to prevent what is to come. For instance, a warming earth is bringing mosquitoes to higher altitudes, endangering the lives of local birds and animals that have never been exposed to such threats. Consider that of the 21 species that were declared extinct in the US in October this year, eight were Hawaiian birds.