After a 25-day hiatus, the Bundesliga returns from a shortened winter break. Though over half of the season is still to play, the league has begun to take shape. The title race, relegation dogfight, and everything in between is beginning to fall into place. 

With matchday 17 of 34 approaching, I sifted through the data to look at what each club has done well, and still needs to improve on, for the remaining 18 matches of the season.

Bayer Leverkusen

Strength

There’s probably a whole article that could be dedicated to the qualities Bayer Leverkusen have propagated this season, but chief amongst them is the midfield dominance Alonso’s side exudes. No club in Europe’s top 5 leagues takes more touches in the midfield third (per 90), and only PSG complete more total passes. 

Weakness

Picking out a weakness from a club on a 24-match unbeaten run is far from easy. Thus, it is potentially what awaits in the coming weeks which could truly test Leverkusen’s limits. The reliance on African stars leaving the club for this month’s AFCON could land the blow that tears down Leverkusen’s title charge. Edmond Tapsoba, Odilon Kossounou, and Amine Adli have all departed for Côte d'Ivoire, while Victor Boniface has been ruled out of all competitions with an abductor operation. 

3 of the 4 are key, undisputed starters, while Amine Adli has proven his impact as one of Alonso’s most trustworthy super-subs. 

FC Bayern

Strength

It’s mind-blowing just how impactful FC Bayern’s attack has been this season. Der Rekordmeister has scored 49 goals in 15 matches - averaging out to 3.3 goals per game! No club in Europe’s top 5 leagues is more impressive in front of goal, with summer signing Harry Kane proving an instant hit in Bavaria. 

The English international has scored 21 goals after 15 matches, equalling Lewandowski’s league record from the 2020/21 season. 

Weakness

The squad depth remains the biggest issue. Centerback, rightback, defensive midfield - all these positions lack adequate re-enforcement when the first-choice options fall away due to injury, or dips in form.

The lack of an adequate squad has seen Thomas Tuchel push his core playing personnel to the limit. Only 5 clubs have used fewer players in the league this season, and Bayern have made 7 fewer substitutes than any other club in the topflight to date!

VfB Stuttgart

Strength

There is probably no more unexpected performer in the Bundesliga than VfB Stuttgart. Facing a relegation playoff last May, Stuttgart are now flying high on course for Champions League football. 

Much of that owes itself to Stuttgart’s sensational squad planning and recruitment. Almost all of Stutgart’s summer signings have hit the ground running. Denis Undav has seamlessly fit into the side and made himself a candidate for Julian Nagelsmann’s EURO Squad. Maximilian Mittelstädt looks nothing like the player who was relegated with Hertha BSC last season. And, Angelo Stiller has easily picked up the midfield mantle from departed captain Wataru Endo. 

Weakness

Though Deniz Undav has proven his expertise as a top forward in recent weeks, there is still a clear dependence on the other-worldly in-form Serhou Guirassy. The forward will be at the African Cup of Nations for the foreseeable future, a problem that could seriously impact Stuttgart’s hopes of European qualification. 

Die Schwaben lost both Bundesliga matches during which he was injured this season, even failing to score at all against FC Heidenheim in early November. 

RB Leipzig

Strength

No club has used fewer players in the Bundesliga this season (21), but this core group of players has an elite quality which has made Leipzig extremely competitive again this season. 

Marco Rose is never afraid to rotate, and he always has a viable solution on the bench to bring the necessary turn-around effect in a match. In fact, Leipzig have already seen 8 goals scored by a substitute this season - the highest output of any Bundesliga club’s bench.  

Weakness

For RB Leipzig, the biggest failure in the league campaign concerns the unnecessary points they have dropped against clubs in the bottom half of the table. In 7 matches against the current top half of the table, Leipzig have dropped only 5 points. In 9 matches against the bottom half of the table, they have dropped 9 points. 

Filtering out these unnecessary defeats and draws against clubs fighting the drop will be key for Leipzig in forcing their way back into title contention this year.  

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Borussia Dortmund

Strength 

It’s been a league campaign to forget for BVB. One of the few things that can, however, provide confidence for the remaining 18 matches has been their intensity out of possession. 

No team in the Bundesliga wins back possession quicker than Dortmund, while, adjusted for possession, Borussia Dortmund complete the most defensive actions in the division.  

Weakness

With a 6-match winless streak in all competitions, the issues plaguing Edin Terzić’s side are hard to whittle down to just one statement. Nevertheless, the one overriding principle that has confronted Dortmund throughout the entire campaign has been their sleepy start to fixtures. 

Only 3 teams have conceded more goals in the first half of fixtures, while 12 of Dortmund’s 16 league matches have seen them go into the break without a lead. 

Eintracht Frankfurt

Strength

Eintracht Frankfurt may have lost the Bundesliga’s top goalscorer over the summer, but they have done well to replace his output with a team-based approach this season. Particularly important has been Frankfurt’s goalscoring midfield. Only Bayer Leverkusen have received more goals from their midfielders this season, with 5 Frankfurt midfielders combining for 11 Bundesliga goals. 

Weakness 

Following the deadline day loss of Randal Kolo Muani, a true out-and-out center forward has been missing from the Frankfurt attack all season. Omar Marmoush has done well to compensate for some of the goalscoring output, but what he can not provide is a strong attacking aerial presence at only 1,83m. 

That’s proven itself in the statistics, with Frankfurt managing the fewest aerial shot attempts, and only two headed goals all season. The signing of 2-meter Saša Kalajdžić can hopefully change this trend in the new year, but we will have to wait and see how his fitness holds up after countless injury setbacks. 

TSG Hoffenheim

Strength

With Transfermarkt giving Hoffenheim a market value of €142m, Die Kraichgauer are estimated as just the 11th most valuable side in the division. That they currently sit in 7th place is a testament to Pellegrino Matarazzo’s ability to get the absolute most out of the squad. 

In fact, according to Transfermarkt’s market-value v league-rank table, only FC Heidenheim are overperforming this metric to a higher degree than TSG Hoffenheim. 

Weakness

Though TSG Hoffenheim’s stellar away form has put them into European contention - only FC Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen have taken more points on the road - their dismal home record has prevented them from making a push into the Champions League places. 

Only Mainz 05, SV Darmstadt, and FC Köln have taken fewer points at home this season, the 3 clubs currently occupying the relegation zone in the Bundesliga table. 

SC Freiburg

Strength

SC Freiburg struggles to create a high volume of chances or take those which they do create. Nevertheless, the shots they take are often from excellent positions on the pitch. No Bundesliga outfit takes their chances, on average, from a closer distance to goal, and only VfB Stuttgart have registered a higher expected goal average per shot this season. 

With a more lethal scoring touch, Freiburg’s goal output can explode in the new year. 

Weakness

Christian Streich’s side have only scored 21 goals in 16 matches, the fewest of any club in the top half of the table. 

A new forward is on the January shopping list, but beyond that, Die Breisgauer must also improve their transition threat. SC Freiburg are yet to score a goal from a counter-attack this season, lacking the fast-paced attack to threaten a disorganized opposition defense. 

FC Heidenheim 

Strength

Entering the winter break in the top half of the table with a 10-point gap to the relegation zone is a dreamy scenario any Heidenheim fan would have graciously accepted at the beginning of the season. The club’s elite set-piece threat has played a monumental role - no club has scored more goals from a dead-ball this season - but even more effective has been their work-rate in and out of possession. 

No club has covered more distance, completed more sprints, or engaged in more defensive duels this season. Truly putting their bodies on the line for topflight survival!

Weakness

FC Heidenheim’s aforementioned set piece quality is crucial to their success. Even more so, because they lack a comparable quality from open-play. 

No club in the 2023/24 Bundesliga completes fewer key passes, through balls, or shot-creating actions from open play. Should their dead-ball specialist Jan-Niklas Beste fall out for an extended period, it is hard to see FC Heidenheim not slipping back into a relegation dogfight. 

VfL Wolfsburg

Strength 

Not a lot really speaks in Wolfsburg’s favor at the moment. They don’t excel in possession, and potentially the only quality they show against the ball is their ability to create and capitalize on high turnovers. 

Only three clubs have won possession more often 40 meters (or closer) from the opponent’s goal, and only Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart have created more shots following such a ball win. 

Weakness

With only 7 points from their last 10 league matches, VfL Wolfsburg, and manager Niko Kovač, are under substantial pressure to perform in the new year. 

The biggest point of agitation is the reliance on Jonas Wind for scoring impact. The Danish international has scored 9 goals and assisted 4 this campaign. That’s a direct hand in 65% of Wolfsburg’s league goals this season.

No club has been more reliant on one player for attacking contributions this season, and given Wind’s unreliable fitness track record, Wolfsburg needs someone to step up and take some of the burden soon.  

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FC Augsburg

Strength

FC Augsburg are ‘the comeback kings’ of the 2023/24 Bundesliga. They have conceded the first goal on 12 occasions this season, but have routinely found their way back into matches with a second-half resurgence. 

From 12 matches they have taken 3 wins and 3 draws! No club has registered more points from a losing position. 

Weakness

FC Augsburg have improved exponentially since the appointment of Jess Thorup in October, but Die Fuggerstädter still struggle to apply lasting control over fixtures. 

No club in the Bundesliga holds less average possession, while in Europe’s top 5 leagues, only FC Metz complete fewer touches per game, and only Luton Town complete fewer touches in the midfield third per game. 

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Strength 

Borussia Mönchengladbach have been riddled with inconsistency this season, but the one lasting quality they have displayed comes in the form of an elite corner kick conversion. Gerardo Seoane’s side have scored 8 goals from a corner this season, one more than any other club in Europe’s top 5 leagues. 

Particularly important, in this respect, is Franck Honorat. The Frenchman delivered 5 of the 8 corner kicks which eventually led to a goal this campaign. 

Weakness 

Both Adi Hütter and Daniel Farke’s reigns as Gladbach coach were plagued by a defensive passivity that just can not be coached out of this roster. Not much has changed in this department since the appointment of Seoane in the summer. 

Borussia Mönchengladbach allow their opponents the most passes of any side in the division before making a defensive intervention. They have also given up the most shots of all 18 top-flight outfits. 

Werder Bremen 

Strength 

Werder Bremen may have lost Niclas Füllkrug in the summer, but Ole Werner’s side retains many of the traits to facilitate a strong aerial ability in goalscoring positions. Only FC Bayern have scored more headed goals this season, and no club completes a higher percentage of their attempted crosses. 

Weakness

With 14 points from 9 matches in the Weser-Stadion, Werder Bremen are amongst the strongest home outfits in the division. The same can not, unfortunately, be said for their away form. Bremen are yet to win a match on the road this season, and with just 2 points from 7 matches, they have the worst away record of any side in the division. 

VfL Bochum

Strength 

Whether a throw-in, corner kick, or free kick, VfL Bochum are always looking to quickly fire the ball into a dangerous zone and immediately get a shot on target. The numbers reflect this, as in Europe’s top 5 leagues, only FC Liverpool have created more shots from a dead-ball scenario this season. 

Weakness

VfL Bochum generate shooting opportunities en mass - only 5 sides have taken more shots this season - but whether they are truly patient enough to wait for the ideal opening is another story. 

Bochum tend to snatch at opportunities, rather than play the additional pass to optimize the shot. Only SV Darmstadt take their shots from a further average distance, only SV Darmstadt and Mainz 05 get their shots on target less often, and only FC Köln needs more shots to score a goal!

FC Union

Strength

Goals have dried up for long stretches of this season in Berlin, but one factor that has remained constant is Union’s oft-exceptional crossing ability. Only FC Köln have completed more crosses, while no side completes more crosses into the most dangerous zone within the opponent’s penalty box. 

Weakness 

Though the appointment of Nenad Bjelica seems to have sparked life back into this squad, through large stretches of the season, Union felt like a club amid an identity crisis. 

This inability to spark energy into the side was always apparent after Union went behind in fixtures. Union have gone behind on 11 occasions this season, losing 10 times and drawing only once. No club in the league has a worse record when suffering the first goal. 

Mainz 05

Strength

Sitting joint-bottom of the table with only one win all season is where no one hopes to be at this stage of the season. But, Mainz 05 can take solace from the underlying numbers which speak in their favor. According to the expected points table, Mainz should be in 9th place at this stage of the season, having collected almost 11 points more than what they have managed in reality. 

With only two clubs in Europe’s top 5 leagues (Almeria & Nottingham Forest) underperforming the xPTS metric by a larger margin, one should expect Mainz to shoot up the table with a bit more luck in the new year. 

Weakness 

The ferocious ‘gegenpressing’ that Mainz have implemented for over a decade can engineer confusion and chaos for an opponent. But, it also, more often, leads to a complete lack of control in one’s own ranks. 

This is highlighted in Mainz’s high turnover rate. Die 05er have the highest turnover rate in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, and over 200 more than the Bundesliga’s second worst outfit, FC Heidenheim. 

FC Köln

Strength 

There is no one concerned with the effort FC Köln are putting into defensive passages of play. Under Steffen Baumgart, Köln completed the most tackles and interceptions of any club in the 2023/24 Bundesliga. Particularly in their defensive third they were constantly throwing themselves into important duels and coming out on top. 

Weakness

Creating chances is just half the problem for FC Köln this season. Taking chances is what they have found far more difficult. 

In Europe’s top 5 leagues, only FC Empoli have needed more shots to score a goal. On average, FC Köln need over 19 shots per goal this season; a troubling figure given that they are only creating, on average, 12 per game.

SV Darmstadt

Strength

SV Darmstadt were promoted with the best defensive record in the 2.Bundesliga last season. 

Though most of this quality has evaporated one division higher, perhaps the only thing remaining is the side’s unwavering willingness to throw themselves in front of opposition shots and passes. 

No side has blocked more shots this season, while only 3 clubs have completed more interceptions. 

Weakness 

For a side with such a limited identity in possession, the bare minimum should be to provide maximum effort in and out of possession. The numbers, however, do this statement no justice. 

Darmstadt complete the fewest sprints and intensive runs in the top flight, and only FC Bayern and Union Berlin have covered less distance. Given that Torsten Lieberknecht’s side have held less than 50% of the possession in 9 of their 16 matches, such a poor running output is undoubtedly a factor in their dismal campaign to date.