Crooked Media - What A Day: Why-owa caucus

Aye aye Iowa. 
 

• Iowa has been home to the nation’s first presidential nominating contests since 1972, meaning the summer before every election year, White House hopefuls from both parties make their way to the Iowa State Fair to press the flesh, kiss babies, and eat deep-fried turkey legs until their blood starts turning to vegetable oil. This year, though, is ever-so-slightly different. Democrats pushed the Hawkeye State further down the nominating calendar, partly because the demographics of Iowa, which is almost 90 percent white and largely rural, hardly represent the wider U.S. population. But Republicans have kept Iowa in the first slot, so GOP voters have to brave a menacing blizzard and haul their asses to their local precinct locations to caucus. 
   

• Okay so where are we going into this snowy Iowa Monday? Well, the game is still very much disgraced former president Donald Trump’s to lose. Trump is comfortably holding a nearly 30-point lead, according to the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register poll. One defining feature of caucuses is that they often bring out the most enthusiastic and committed supporters of a particular candidate—for better or worse—which means Trump’s band of psychotic die-hards may very well be the ones showing up to put him over the edge. Trump’s former United Nations Secretary Nikki Haley has been gaining in recent weeks, and even pulled past Florida Governor Ron DeSantis to second place. But she has seemingly put most of her eggs in the New Hampshire primary basket. And even if she wins there next Tuesday, she could still flame out, as John McCain did in the 2000 GOP primary. 
   

• The Iowa caucuses can feel very “Everything’s made up and the points don’t matter,” because in the past half-century, the overwhelming majority of both Democrats and Republicans who won the Iowa caucus in a crowded field did not actually go on to become president. Consider that the 2008, 2012, and 2016 Republican caucus winners were, respectively, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz. Lol. Nonetheless, barring some cataclysmic event or sea change, the 2024 GOP primary remains a race for second at this point. 

Now, a quick refresher on caucuses for those of us who somehow forget what they are and how they work every four years (like me). 
 

• Here’s the rundown: Republican voters arrive at their precinct, elect a chair and a secretary to preside over the day, and then supporters of each candidate get up and give a little speech about the morally bankrupt man or woman they think everyone should vote for. Then everyone casts their ballots, precinct workers tally them up, and then totals are reported to the state party. That’s another thing: state governments run primaries, but state political parties run caucuses. The Democratic caucus process is somehow even more convoluted, but that’s a problem for another day.
   

• Caucuses are a big time commitment for voters, and the comparatively-limited window in which participation can happen means that if you’re disabled, a shift worker, can’t get child care, or there’s oh, say, a historic blizzard, you’re kind of screwed. No early voting, no voting by mail (Iowa Democrats did amend the latter for this year’s caucus), which is why caucuses have such historically low turnout. In 2016, the last year of competitive primaries for both parties, only 15.7 percent of eligible voters attended either GOP or Democratic caucuses, about half the average turnout of primaries. 

Okay, everyone feeling good? No? Well, yeah, that’s to be expected.

Vote Save America is about to kick it into high gear, so now’s the perfect time to get yourself some VSA gear. Grab a brand-new tee or crewneck that’s perfect for wearing to your next volunteer shift or just around the house while you rant about gerrymandering to your dog. Plus, 100% of the profits from the Vote Save America collection will go to support VSA and grassroots organizations working to give Americans the tools they need to have an impact. Head to crooked.com/store to shop VSA.

Hamas militants released a video on Monday appearing to show the dead bodies of two Israeli hostages after warning Israel they might be killed if it did not stop its siege of Gaza. 

Despite increasing pressure from Washington for Israel to expand humanitarian aid to Gaza and minimize civilian casualties, there has been no meaningful change on either front. 

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Houthi forces in Yemen hit an American dry bulk ship in the gulf of Aden with a ballistic missile on Monday. Thankfully, there were no reports of injuries or significant damage. 

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In a Trump-dominated GOP primary, is this year's Iowa caucus just a formality? Or something more pivotal? With some Iowa powerbrokers predicting a possible shake-up in the Republican leaderboard, Pod Save America's Tommy Vietor is heading to the Hawkeye State to talk directly to voters and experts on what this Iowa caucus means for the election year ahead. Tune in to On The Ground in Iowa, a special 2-episode series, in the Pod Save America feed now. 

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