The Breakdown First Five - Monday, January 29, 2024

Welcome back to The Breakdown First Five — the 5 most interesting and/or important stories in bitcoin, crypto, and markets to start your day.

5. Can’t Fade Cramer

The notorious inverse Cramer ETF will be shut down after just 10 months of trading. The fund is down 15% after consistently fading calls from the Mad Money host. Part of the problem was the ETF’s long/short structure which carried the additional cost of shorting stocks from the perma-bullish host. CEO of issuer Tuttle Capital said he succeeded in pointing out the “danger of following TV stockpickers.” Hopefully Cramer isn’t right on Bitcoin this time around. 

4. Burniske’s Warning

After more than a decade in crypto, Chris Burniske is cautious of drawdowns. The Placeholder ventures partner thinks that Bitcoin could see $30-$36k before looking for new all time highs. He expects volatility and an unclear path, but remains long term bullish. The big question is which kind of macro shock will play out this year, between weakness in China and Fed rate adjustments, there’s no shortage of potential catalysts. 

3. Google ETF Ads

Starting today, Google will allow Bitcoin ETFs to advertise on their platforms. A policy change announced late last year will allow the massive asset managers to push Bitcoin to millions of investors. Although ETFs have been the talk of the industry, we still haven’t seen the massive advertising push anticipated from Bitcoin’s big new entrants. 

2. The Harder They Fall

The most indebted property developer in the world, Evergrande, has been ordered to liquidate. The order was handed down in a Hong Kong court, so it’s unclear whether it changes anything for Chinese assets. Evergrande is already 2 years into restructuring efforts but international creditors were seeing very limited prospects. Regardless of what happens next, $300B in liabilities puts Evergrande in line to cause macro shocks throughout the world.

1. Blackrock Hits $2B AUM

IBIT, the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF has hit $2B in AUM after heavy inflows on Friday. Combined inflows for Bitcoin ETFs outpaced GBTC outflows for the first time all week. Spreads are compressing, the premium to spot prices is falling and traders are beginning to shift away from GBTC. Fidelity and Blackrock’s products achieved a higher combined volume than GBTC for the first time, indicating that liquidity is shifting away from Grayscale rapidly. 

Thanks for reading -NLW